Survivor: Vanuatu - Advice for the Remaining 8

Last time out, I talked about political games, Julie's lie, and the situation with 18 survivors instead of 16. I'd like to review them in light of the last episode, because most of them came into play - and enough fan mail poured in for me to review the other.

The political game was played out in the reward challenge. I really don't care if it is chopping down coconuts, smashing masks, or setting skulls on fire (all have been used) - there is NO difference in the end, except something thematic to the particular location Survivor is set in. It's the same game - and one Survivors keep playing to win. This time it might have been worth more - immunity is an empty prize (considering the price of winning it), but reward is often worth playing the game for. Indeed, I think the reason it was changed to reward is because, by NOW, the Survivors should know that immunity is an empty prize at this stage of the game - and playing to win can often lead to a revelation of position that is hard to recover from. Still, this challenge offered the winner even LESS of a prize in the end. Sure the temporary benefit of winning was good, but in a quest for the big money, a helicopter trip, a bucket of chicken wings and some champagne was almost as worthless as the immunity necklace (when there was almost no chance of being voted out).

Julie's lie - telling Twila that the men promised her a final four deal when they hadn't. It's turned out to be absolutely brilliant on the part of Julie. By the time the lie was exposed, Rory was gone, and the women ruled the tribe. Indeed, Julie's position has improved since the moment she pulled it off. Julie can easily claim self-defense (it kept her off the block), while Twila has been left holding the bag for selling out the men, and the willingness to sell out the women. Julie is now sitting pretty, while Twila is stuck between two groups of people who don't trust her. Is it fair for the men to blame Twila more than Julie? Well, I say that in some ways the answer is no. Twila gave her word; Julie never did. Julie also was vulnerable, and adapted to her situation. However, human relationships tend to have a balancing act. The greater the love for a person, the harder hit they are with betrayal. Twila was far more vulnerable to that - and Julie played it all out to win.

Finally, in my last article I talked about 39 days and 18 Survivors. I got a lot of feedback, particularly suggesting that since the double tribal council was held a few days early, the Survivors are at the right pace for a normal end-game. Still, there are still the number of episodes to be considered. There are other choices, but in the end - at this point - an additional Survivor needs to exit the game. There are still those options as well. One more tribal council, a double-elimination, or a jury pick between three. Maybe the number of episodes has increased. Maybe it hasn't. In any case, the results will be interesting. I'm not betting on an extra episode. I'm betting on a power flux.

That is what I like - an interesting game. A game with a power player who can be knocked off, a minority situation who can make deals, and players who have options either way - they can sell out the top players or the bottom to advance their agenda to win. It's advice for the remaining nine.

Twila. I really don't know what Lea was thinking in the last tribal council. He was either completely selling you out, or playing martyr for you - forcing you to reveal your position (which you should NEVER have done) with Julie, the women, etc. You have to re-assess the situation. The two men remaining are total outcasts. Scout is still your best ally, and the women are fracturing. Right now, you need to play a game of being the auxiliary vote to a power player. Lea weakened your position at tribal council, so you are unlikely to be a power player any time soon. However, you should sell your vote to a faction that looks good.

Leann. Right now, I'm kind of betting on you to win, since I think you have a very strong position in the game. However, you may have weakened it at bit with your game of trying to get it both ways with the men and women. So far, it's worked - you got Julie as an ally, got the women on your side for the chicken wings, and got the men grateful to you for the bones. Long term, however, you may have blown it with that move. Three men will be on the jury - and ALL of them will hold it against you that you pulled that stunt. Who will tell them? Any final-two candidate that has a lick of sense (or any jury member that has it in for you). For now, stick tight with the women. There is no advantage for you to mount a coup until the women are gone, since despite the political revelation at the reward challenge, I still don't think you are a target for now, or even for the mid-game.