Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 6: Not Ulong for the World

An argument has developed among some of the RealityNewsOnline writers over the past few weeks about whether Ulong deserves entry in the Reality TV Hall of Shame for its ineptitude. Perhaps not, but surely collectively they are the greatest dunderheads in the game’s history.

Clueless to the end, James finally got his discharge, but of greater note was the incomprehensible way Stephenie played this hand. Concerning the outcome of Tribal Council voting, all members knew James and Ibrehem were going to vote for each other, but both Stephenie and Bobby Jon had the additional piece of information of being able to deduce how the other could vote as well. Of course, going into it they thought they knew this already because they made a pact to stick together, to vote against James.

So Stephenie, who apparently still hadn’t made up her mind as she grabbed pen and parchment, suddenly decided to vote against Ibrehem. The only possible thing this could accomplish, since she knew it was going to end in a tie by doing so, would be to make Bobby Jon question their new dyad – as if he needed more fuel to the fire, him having questioned her previous vote. The only reason to do this would be if somehow she doubted his word and he secretly had switched to Ibrehem, despite his continual insistence that James was to be the target. So what; it ends in a tie and then she’s free to switch to Ibrehem, having kept her word. There’s no good reason why she should make Bobby Jon distrust her without any compensating benefit whatsoever, which now should be the end result.

Yet, miraculously, if a merge were to occur before the next Tribal Council, the rump of this tribe still probably holds the balance of power in the game. Assuming Ulong sticks together, Koror at this time apparently configures to a 3-2-3 lineup; Tom, Little Tom, and Katie as one triad, Coby, Janu and Caryn as the other, with Gregg and Jennifer (unbeknown to the first triad) swinging in the middle. Whichever way the dyad swings, the Ulong triad optimally goes the other way not only to get a working majority, but, if loyalties hold, an even-money shot to have two of them to go in front of the jury.

Of course, this is not in the interest of the dyad. In essence, they lose no matter what because by the numbers they automatically lose and choose the losing side along with them. Thus, it is in Gregg and Jennifer’s interest to keep his connections with Coby on double-secret probation for as long as possible (and for Coby to a lesser extent). As long as Ian, Big Ian, and Katie can be fooled into thinking Koror will stick together to eliminate the Ulongs, Gregg’s and Coby’s scheme will work (and better for Gregg if he can whittle Caryn off in the near future before revealing his true allegiance).

Thus, the dyad must hope that there’s at least one more tribal council before a merge. That way, if Coby still has not wised up, he can be conned into sacrificing Caryn if Koror loses the immunity challenge, or if Koror loses then the remaining pair have mostly lost their control as an arbiter (because if the Koror crackup occurs right after that, the best they can do is force a 5-5 tie). Indeed, the dyad could bring the Ulong dyad into its orbit furtively, tell Coby it was time to take out the other triad, and then turn the tables on Coby’s triad with the ex-Ulongs.

Regardless whether the merge occurs before the next Tribal Council, the dyad and Coby’s triad must maintain the fiction of Koror unity or else the other triad can try to unite with the Ulong refugees. (In fact, would not a merge be forced if there are just two tribe members – if the pair lost immunity, how could anybody be voted out with each voting for the other; I don’t think Mark Burnett would be crass enough to make them go to an immediate Purple Rock O’ Death scenario.)

Just one more elimination before a merge and Gregg and Jennifer’s position becomes pretty strong. Things become much more up in the air if the merge happens before then, or something happens that outs the fractures that really exist in Koror.

If you haven’t already done so, make sure to check out the other Episode 6 columns already posted:

Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University in Shreveport where he teaches, among other things, classes in international politics, international organizations, and diplomatic history. He has published in the area of gaming simulations in international politics.

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