Survivor: Samoa, Ranking the Survivors, Episode 7 – A Puppet with Four Masters

The most important event that happened in the last episode was the four Galu men deciding to visibly support Shambo by making her the tribe leader. Restating it, they took a resource they already had reasonable control over and alienated the other three females. In an Insider clip, John confirmed that none of the guys wanted to be the leader, and they hope Shambo will keep Laura and Monica at a disadvantage. Clearly, Shambo is on a short leash.

The most exciting information of the episode, however, was in the “next week” teaser – it’s merge time! Strong players become targets, and the weak and radar-avoiders skate by. I think that by the next article, we’re going to understand a lot more about who really has a chance to win this game, and who is destined for an early jury position.

With all that said, here is the latest version of my rankings. Note that the women are well-placed and the majority of men are in some degree of jeopardy.

1. Natalie (6) – Natalie was saved by Russell this week, as expected. As per Mick’s comments as he voted (shown on Insider), the team felt they need her social skills when it comes to scrambling after the merge. We already saw her bond somewhat with Laura over religion, so it might happen. But even if that doesn’t pan out, there are bigger targets in Samoa than Natalie, and she should be safe for a while.

If Natalie is supposed to be so good at puzzles, why didn’t she take that role in the immunity challenge?

2. Russell Hantz (1) – All Foa Foa members are at risk now, as they are now assured to be in a minority at the merge. Can Russell work his magic again? He made an effort with Laura, figuring out that the religion card was the way to get on her good side. However, his offer of a final-two deal with Laura didn’t seem to impress her as much as he thought… she called the idea “food for thought.”

Liz gave kudos to Russell in her “Day After” Insider video for telling her the next vote was between Natalie and Jaison. He was clever to do so because it kept her from scrambling for votes and upsetting his applecart.

At Tribal Council, Russell told Probst, “Those kids over there [at Galu], there’s no way in hell they can outwit me.” Do I see the foreshadowing fairy in the corner of my screen? Personally, I don’t think the master schemer is done yet.

The next vote will show us a lot. If Russell cannot swing a deal to extend Foa Foa’s time in the game, then I’ve ranked him far too high and he needs to practice his “Day After” speech pretty soon.

The next three are grouped together – it’s the women of Galu. As the smallest group still in the game among three minorities, they actually control the next vote. If they wish to stay with Galu, the Foans are prime to be Pagonged but they will have to tolerate Shambo. If their dislike of Shambo is so great, they can unite with the underdog Foa Foa tribe and pick off the immunity challenge threats from Galu.

One notes that either strategy places them in mid- to late jury positions, but no further. If they were super-smart, they ought to swap sides every week or two and whittle both of the other groups down to size. It doesn’t hurt them that the other two groups exchanged barbs at a recent Tribal Council, so there’s little hope of those two bonding together. But this play is a lot to hope for!

All three belittled Shambo for causing Laura to miss the reward, either in the show or on Insider, claiming it was personal. Their petulant pouts made me laugh – the previous week, they had no qualms about sending Shambo back to Foa Foa, and any of the three would have done so again this week for exactly the same reasons had the positions been reversed. Pot, kettle, black.

Tied 3. Monica (Tied 12) – It was amusing that when Shambo was elected leader, Monica felt, “It went by so quickly, no one really realized what happened.” Um, yes, they did! She also glimpsed at this time that she might have been the one saved by the cancellation of torch-snuffing the night before. Um, yes!

Monica shoots farthest up the rankings only because she is less of a challenge threat than pretty much everyone, including the chicken. Without the early merge she would surely have been at the Ponderosa before that phase of the game kicked in.

Tied 3. Laura (8) – The most promising thing for Laura this episode happened when Russell approached her to form the bonds for a merge-time alliance. She saw it as a card she can play, but at the time, I’m unsure if she has decided to follow this path.

Of the three women, she seems like the leader. Will she be able to jump herself ahead of lesser threats Kelly and Monica? Not if the other players are paying attention!

Tied 3. Kelly (11) – The merge is good for Kelly, too, and she rises in ranking accordingly. Of the three women, she might be “the middle one.” She might be better than Monica at challenges, but her strategic impact on the game is not apparent on TV or Insider. On the minus side, in this mini-group of three, the other two are more closely aligned. I think that when her turn comes up to go, she probably can’t defend herself.