Survivor: Samoa Roundtable Predictions Update, Episode 7 – Picking Up the Pieces

One of the hardest things about predicting a season of Survivor is that you just don’t know how tribal dynamics are going to shape up, or how tribal challenges are going to play out. Sometimes you have a fairly even tribal phase, other times you have Ulong. This season, the Foa Foa tribe did its best impression of the worst tribe ever, and because of that, a fairly strong player like Liz has been chucked, while weaker players like Monica and Kelly have made the merge by virtue of their tribe wining challenges.

Circumstances like this make a predictor’s life very difficult. When we gather to assemble our preseason jigsaw we are given only the most basic information about the players. We get a bio from CBS, along with a two minute introductory video. Sometimes, we also get the cast photo to see who’s on what tribe to start. But otherwise, that’s it. After that, it’s up to us to judge the relative strength and weakness of each player, and just hope each tribe goes to enough Tribal Councils to make us look smart.

Unfortunately, that is not the case this week. Foa Foa lost yet again, and Liz, who almost all of us agreed was a very strong player from a strategic standpoint, took the long walk off Survivor’s short pier. Out of the 12 writers, only two correctly picked Liz to go out this early. Sting and Kari, would either of you like to brag?

Sting7: “Hang in there Jaison! This is the second time this season he gave me a big scare!”

Short and to the point. I like it. The next group is a bit larger, consisting of the four writers who pegged Liz for the jury. Taking a mild hit this week are Jenn, Chris, Jeffrey Clinard, and yours truly.

Chris: “I was right about Liz ... sort of. I said that as a lawyer, she'd be ‘smart and ruthless,’ but that ‘she can be a little too honest and opinionated.’ Evidently, Russell saw her as the type of person who would be smart and ruthless enough to cause him problems, primarily because of what came out of her mouth. I think this is what got her beat, because honestly, at this point in the game, she might be considered a bigger help in team challenges than Jaison. Instead, Russell sees Jaison as more loyal. Liz almost made it as far as I predicted ... but not quite, simply because Russell (one of my picks to go pre-jury ... sigh) was smart enough to get rid of her at just the right time (and let's face it, he's the one leading the decision-making process here, probably).”

For my part, I’m breathing something of a sigh of relief. In the initial Roundtable, I considered Liz to be final four material. She struck me as an update on Shii-Ann, but with the self-awareness to keep her mouth shut. But as I mentioned, when your team goes to Tribal six times, being a smart player isn’t going to save you unless you have a very tight alliance, and Liz certainly did not.

When I read in her interview with David that she was a recruit, I felt even more relieved that I placed her fourth, leaving her just outside the finals. Mind you, I put Mike in as my third, so it’s not like this pick really helped me any.

Still, for once I don’t suffer alone, or even the hardest of the group. Three of our number (Ken, Brian, and David) each picked Liz to be that third finalist should a final three come to fruition (which seems very likely, since next week the tribes are merging at 12). Who wants to lick their wound first?

David: “I hate losing another finalist, but the pain is less because I saw this one coming a mile away. Almost as soon as Survivor started airing and we saw how Liz was acting, I knew I had been wrong to pick her for a top position. At that point, all I could do was wait and watch, hoping in vain that she could somehow turn it around and make it, while knowing all along that she was doomed and so was my pick.”

Ken: “Up until now, this had been one of my better seasons of predicting. It almost unraveled last week, when it looked like Monica and Liz, two of my final three picks, would go. Then, this week, it was between Liz and Jaison, my pick to win the whole shebang. In the end, it came down to physical strength. Of course, if they'd known this was the last vote before the merge, David's latest interview might be with Jaison, so I should count my blessings.”

Speaking of potential winners, our last group is really hurting. Mark, Phil, and Jeffrey Sadow each picked the lovely Liz to win this whole thing. Mark has already grieved in his column, so would either of the other gentlemen like to lament?

Jeffrey S.: “Liz’s departure shows it’s one thing to bring all the tools to the game to succeed, but it’s another thing to put them into operation. All of her tribe except for Russell sleepwalked through the first part of the game in terms of strategizing, and by the time she woke up, the trend was irreversible. She might have stood a chance had she laid some groundwork earlier, but for her it was too little, too late.”

Well put, professor. That brings us to the next item on the agenda - who goes next. The tribes are merging next week, which means the game ostensibly becomes individual. Still, those who have laid the groundwork for a successful run should be safe. With 12 people left, I think it might be easier to say who’s safe as opposed to who’s in danger this week.

Looking at the previews, you have to figure the four remaining Foans will do all they can to turn the former Galu on each other. If that fails, Jaison seems like the obvious target, so much so that I would place good odds on Russell, Natalie, and Mick all being safe.

On the former Galu side, we’ve seen Monica struggle, Shannon annoy, and Erik turn into an alpha male. In addition, Laura has forged something of an alliance with Russell and Natalie. Out of those four, I think Laura is the only one who has any degree of safety. The other three look to be targets, given the end-of-show preview this week. If Galu does decide to eat one of its own, I think it’s safe to say that Dave, John, Brett, and Kelly have little to nothing to worry about.

All that said, it’s time to reveal the new leaderboard. Liz didn’t have much impact on the Survivor game, but she certainly had a huge impact on our game.

What a difference a week makes. Sting has catapulted into the lead with a 6-2 record, followed closely by Chris. These two are the only writers in the Roundtable to make the merge with all three finalists intact. Congrats, gentlemen.

Losing his winner has dropped Mark from the lead all the way down to fifth place, while Sadow has plummeted to ninth. Phil is in a tie for tenth with Brian, who has also lost his third finalist and his winner. Kari and Jenn are effectively tied for seventh place, as they both lost two finalists, but their mutual winner (Jaison) is still active. Kari never chose a third finalist, but for all intents and purposes, it’s one of the two she’s lost.

As for me, I’m still in the basement. But for the first time since Week 1, I have a little bit of hope for escape. I am one pick behind Brian and Phil at the moment, and we’ve all lost our third and our winner. If a few future picks go my way, I can finally climb out.

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If Bill Hammon ever gets on Survivor, he promises to do all in his power to make sure he’s in a tight alliance on his tribe. You know, just in case the whole tribe sucks out loud at challenges. You can reach him at loismustdie1982@yahoo.com or follow him at twitter.com/WilliamJHammon.

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