Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 9: You Live By Paranoia…

Russell has proven himself time and again in this edition of Survivor to be a first-class scavenger, second-class strategist. But it’s enough to stay alive when the competition, in terms of strategy, is just as weak.

Had the ex-Galu gang given things a considered moment’s thought, knowing another hidden immunity idol now was possibly in play (courtesy of the reward), they never should have gone after Russell. They already knew he had picked off an idol with no clues and the operative rule is always to assume the worst – which was unknown or ignored by Dave, who belittled the idea when under discussion about whether to vote Russell out and if he had the idol. You always must plan for the most unfavorable contingency and build your strategy around that.

The majority failed to do so. The clear choice, if any doubt about the existence of a newly-found idol remained, was to vote for Jaison. Honestly, who would be a bigger threat in the long run to win challenges, and who was less disliked, than Jaison over Russell? In front of the jury, therefore, who would get more votes? Again, clear strategic thinking eluded this rather dense bunch that did not recognize Jaison was a bigger long-term threat. He’s more likely to win challenges to get in front of the jury and to win its votes.

Interesting, though, was how the vote distribution played out. After many signs that Natalie would fly the ex-Foa Foa coop to align with the ex-Galu females, she stayed with the plan to vote for Kelly (who probably was less dangerous than Monica – another misjudgment by this bunch), while Shambo, seemingly trusted by the members of the former tribe that was not hers, stayed with the remnants of her original tribe to try to vote off, unsuccessfully, Russell.

This means one of two things. More consistent with the overall demonstration of strategic abilities so far this season would be that Natalie and Shambo are dense enough to fall back into an unthinking, reflexive loyalty that makes no sense strategically. Why would Natalie continue to stick with a minority knowing that strategy cannot win? Why would Shambo continue to support a majority where she might well be sloughed off at the first opportunity?

Hopefully, they are not this dumb and the other meaning applies. It could be both thought they would lie in wait before revealing their true hands – Natalie wanting to fool the ex-Foa Foas into thinking she remained one of them so she could then could turn on them at the right moment, and vice-versa for Shambo in regards to the ex-Galus. Natalie may have known her power would increase by allowing herself to slide into Kelly’s slot with Laura and Monica. Shambo may have figured she could strategically flip to surprise her former tribe.

If so, she yet again confirms she isn’t the sharpest strategic tool in the shed. True, while it’s best to hold back until the moment is right, a flip next time only creates a 5-5 tie which makes her chances worse because it would expose her without any protection if her target wins the tiebreaker. Her chances probably are better sticking with the majority. Even more intriguing, if Natalie is ready to defect, any maneuvers Shambo makes will come to naught as Shambo will still end up in the minority. Even if Shambo flips next time, triggers a tie vote, and gets one of her ex-tribemates voted off, the time after would be the perfect opportunity for Natalie to flip – especially if both Laura and Monica remain – to send Shambo right back down a path to futility.

In a sense, it almost behooves Natalie, if this is her plan, to allow this to happen. As long as she can steer the next vote to one of the guys – John being the most obvious – and hopes Shambo unwisely tries to flip and actually succeeds in getting one of the ex-Galu guys out, next time Natalie can flip back, leaving her, Laura, and Monica as queenmakers. If this is not the outcome, she can continue with a double-secret alliance with those women, making sure they can protect her as they pick off all other ex-Foa-Foas.

Then the vote at seven would become crucial. They would have to detach one of the other ex-Galus. If she were smart, Shambo would put aside her disdain and join up with the other women, but she is not. Ironically, thus, the ladies’ best strategy with Kelly’s surprise removal is to hope Shambo plays stupidly now rather than later, for it allows for a more effective sandbagging by Natalie.

As for the ex-Foa Foas, they still have a long ways to go before being back in this. They have to hope Natalie stays with them and that they can pick up another defector. It is unlikely that the ex-Galus will vote next time without thinking about an idol being in their opposition’s hands, so they can’t sandbag successfully again, and even a Shambo defection to them keeps their odds of surviving intact rather long.

Paranoia in playing can keep in you in the game, as Russell showed. But it is superior strategy that wins you the game. We’re still waiting this season for somebody to step up and show that he or she can do that.

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When not watching for strategic elements in Survivor, Jeffrey D. Sadow is trying to teach about strategies inherent in international relations, diplomacy, governance, political campaigns, and lots of other neat stuff as an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University Shreveport.

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