Survivor: Samoa Roundtable Predictions Update, Episodes 8 and 9 – Dealer Pushes

Well folks, I'm back, and from the resounding echo of the chirping crickets, I can tell you all missed me. For the better part of the last two weeks I was enjoying a well-earned vacation in Las Vegas. Surprisingly, as far as the gambling was concerned, I came out fairly even.

But now it's back to work and back to Survivor. I may not have lost too much scratch at the blackjack table, but I still have to go back over our collective prop bet to see if the standings have been altered dramatically in my absence.

We'll get to the two most recent ejections in just a moment, but first, a revision of the standing rules of this column. When the roundtable convened, we each listed 10 individuals who would not make the jury. We did this assuming a standard season where the merge occurs at 10th place. Instead, since Erik was the first member of the jury, there were only eight pre-jury boots, two of which were by medical evacuation.

So, what to do? It wouldn't be fair to have everybody automatically take two hits, nor would it be fair to give everyone the benefit of the doubt and give the group two free passes. Instead, the house will push.

Since we picked 10 to go out early, I will count anyone who picked Kelly and Erik as pre-jury fodder as having the pick correct, since they still were among the first 10 gone. At the end of the season, however, they will be used as tiebreakers, should the need arise, to determine the final rankings. Those who put them in the jury will get the preferred slot in the event of a tie. Anyone who picked these two for the endgame is still responsible for their pick. Call it breaking even.

Now then, on to business. We'll start with Erik, who was playing a strong game from a physical standpoint, and had some strategic acumen on a season where it is sorely lacking. Still, he got too cocky too fast, and he went down in flames as his ego exploded. Eleven of the writers are getting credit for this one, but for the sake of organization, we'll start with those who would have been wrong had he made the top 10. Officially picking Erik as pre-jury fodder were myself, Jenn, Ken, Jeffrey Clinard, and Sting7. Comments?

Ken: "How ironic that someone who called himself a 'proud womanizer' in his profile led the charge to get rid of one of the cuter girls in the game and instead found his own torch being snuffed. Or more accurately, he was the mouthpiece for someone (John) who pretended to want one of the cuter girls gone. In any case, I thought his ego would do him in, and in a way, it did. He thought he was safe, but didn't realize everyone was whispering behind his back. In any case, a well-deserved boot."

While the next group is slightly more accurate because they chose Erik for jury duty, we're all celebrating today. Anyone want to chime in and brag to an infinitesimal degree?

David: "I had said, 'To me, the key in Erik’s bio is the statement, "He says that he enjoys life while the ‘sell-outs’ do not." This makes it appear to me that he holds himself above other people, looking down on them for, you know, having a decent job and the like. Such egocentric thinking does not work well on Survivor, at least not for long. It’s possible he’ll make the jury if his tribe needs strength for challenges and he does well there. But I think it’s at least as likely they’ll want to get rid of the punk early.’ Frankly, it seems I was right on the money. He helped his tribe crush Foa Foa, but as soon as the merge hit and we saw more of his egocentric personality, he was dumped like yesterday's garbage."

Jeffrey S.: "Erik richly deserved this exit as he threw away an excellent hand. He needed to keep the women and ex-Foa Foas from linking up, so instead he drives them together by targeting some of the women. As a conniving player, his natural adversary was the other obviously conniving player, Russell, yet he started cooperating (he thought) with him. And telling people he had the idol already put a target on his back. Badly played, which is why he ended not far from where I thought he would."

Still, one person does have a bandage to apply, as Chris advanced Erik all the way to the finals as his third. Any last words on behalf of the bartender?

Chris: "Well, I was toast one way or the other. The three people most in danger (at different points in the show) were Laura, Monica, and Erik – my three finalist picks! I knew Erik was cocky, but he also seemed smart enough to avoid getting caught. For the tribal portion of the show, he did little to discourage that impression, coming off as one of this game's sharper players. However, come the merge, that cocky attitude got in the way and cost him, I believe. Russell may have wasted his idol, but at least he was smart enough to realize he could be going home in this pre-vote free-for-all scramble. Erik never saw it coming, even though his name was being tossed around all over camp. Very disappointing, Erik."

Yes, I suppose if you're going to take a hit, take the least painful one you can. Moving on to Kelly, there really isn't much to say, especially since she had almost no screen time. I just wish my home state of Delaware got better representation. She was such a non-entity that there isn't even a point to having commentary on her non-existent game.

There isn't even any misery to dole out. Out of the 12 writers, everyone gets credit for Kelly's ouster. The only relevance she'll have is the fact that Chris and Mark were the only ones that actually put her in the jury. No one rode her to the finals, so no one takes a hit on her part. Chris and Mark may factor in tie-breakers, but that's it. By the way, with that last sentence I have officially spent more time on Kelly than the editors did.

Since this article is behind due to my vacation, it may be showtime before some of you read this. As such, there's really no point in doing any in-depth analysis as to who might go next (and besides, Kari already spent a whole column on that). All I'll say is this: The teasers are trying to set the episode up as a head-to-head battle between Russell and Laura. If that happens, Russell wins, period.

So, with that in mind, let's jump right into the updated rankings:

There are three things worth mentioning with this new leader board. First, Sting is not only in the lead at the halfway mark (of the cast, not the season obviously), but he is the only one to make it into the final 10 with all three finalists intact, thanks to Chris riding Erik. Second, because of that slip, Chris is the only one to take any hit this week, dropping him from second to fourth. Finally, with two easy wins for the rest of the group, everyone pulls their record to at least .500 or better… except me.

Now you can follow RealityNewsOnline on Twitter! You can get up to the minute notifications on article postings and other reality TV news by following us there. So head on over to RealityNewsOnline’s Twitter page!

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent Survivor: Samoa articles here on RealityNewsOnline:

If Bill Hammon ever gets on Survivor, he promises to occasionally appear on screen. He further promises not to taunt the opposing tribe post-merge, unless of course he has an immunity necklace on. You can reach him at loismustdie1982@yahoo.com or follow him at twitter.com/WilliamJHammon.

Be sure to sign up for our e-mail update so you can stay informed about new articles on the site! Don’t forget to take a look at the rest of the site and buy reality show stuff at our Reality TV Store!

For more news about Survivor, be sure to check out SirLinksALot: Survivor and Survivor Fever!