Survivor: Samoa – Why Dave and Monica Lost

Last week’s episode gave us two Tribal Councils and two eliminations. Normally, this would mean two articles from me on why people lost. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized how wise it was of the producers to combine these two votes into one episode – because really, it was just the continuation of one set of circumstances. Similarly, it would be repetitive to write an article each about Dave and Monica. I’m not trying to shortchange them and I’m pretty sure this is the first time I’ve ever done this, but as you’ll see, it makes the most sense to only write one column to answer the question: Why did Dave and Monica lose?

Even in this unique situation, though, the way we go about answering that question will remain the same, as we look through What Samoan Survivors Should Have Learned to see where they went wrong. Sure, there will be a few differences, but the similarities will rule the day.

First and foremost we have the rule telling players they need to scheme and plot. Both Dave and Monica seemed to understand that. For example, Monica told me, in her RNO interview, that she formed an alliance with Laura on Day 2 and then started picking up new allies in Kelly, Brett, and Dave. Dave, meanwhile, was allied strongly with Brett and told me in our RNO interview that he knew he needed a third player to help out – in his case, it was John (interestingly, he didn’t mention Monica as an ally, so I suspect he was more connected to Laura directly).

But both of them had their issues here. Dave, in particular, appeared to focus more on the challenges and social interaction rather than on scheming. And Monica believed that she couldn’t play as hard at the beginning as she did near the end, as it would have focused too much negative attention on her. She might be right, but she also may have been lucky that her tribe did so well in challenges and then saw Russell leave due to his medical problems right when it appeared she would be voted out (though she thinks Shambo would have gone then instead).

Even if they hadn’t been scheming that early in the game, they definitely should have been putting seeds into the minds of Russell’s allies, Natalie, Mick, and Jaison – especially the latter two – sooner than they tried. By the time they tried to get them to flip, it seemed like a desperation move, and it is not at all often that desperation moves work – even when they would be the right move! Instead, Dave and Monica should have realized the possibility of where the game was headed and spoken to Mick and Jaison about the endgame sooner, planting anti-Russell seeds to counter the Russell seeds that had been growing there for weeks. By the time they figured out the need to do this, it was too late.

So both Dave and Monica were essentially in the same alliance (Galu) and sub-alliance (Galu other than Erik and Shambo, and maybe John). But even with such a large alliance, they couldn’t beat down the four Foa Foans plus (sometimes) Shambo. As we’ve discussed in previous columns, the Galu made mistakes right after the merge by targeting Erik instead of immediately picking off the Foa Foans. This exemplifies a problem from the second rule, scheming and plotting too much and backstabbing too soon.

If we skip back a paragraph to my discussion of planting the anti-Russell seeds, we can discuss the third rule and how flexibility should have played into the games of Dave and Monica. I believe they didn’t bother talking to Mick and Jaison about turning on Russell because they didn’t think they needed to. Each time a member of their alliance was sent packing, we saw Dave’s surprised “Wow!” face. Each time, he didn’t know it was coming, and neither did Monica. Thus, until the point when John was sent packing, Dave and Monica still believed their alliance could control the game – so no need to court the opposition, right? Wrong.

And really, even if their alliance had maintained control, they still should have been seeking alternatives unless they absolutely knew they were going to be in the top three, and with whom they would be there. That’s the whole point of maintaining flexibility – to pick your best path to the end.

Neither Dave nor Monica had any particular problem with the fourth rule, which tells players not to allow their emotions to override their game play. Indeed, they both instead suffered from Shambo having that problem, as she turned on them for reasons having nothing to do with strategy and everything to do with emotions.

However, Dave and Monica were not blameless in causing Shambo to feel that way. Monica was one of the younger women who pissed off Shambo early in the game by apparently (at least in Shambo’s eyes) excluding her from their reindeer games. And Dave, of course, had words with Shambo at least a couple times. As he told me, he knew he had to work on keeping his mouth shut, and “I was only moderately successful at that.” His unnecessary chicken-cooking argument with Shambo caused her to have a dream that she thought came from God (because God has nothing better to do than send precognitive dreams to a nutty lady relating to a game), which led to her being so solidly anti-Dave that she ignored both strategy and the evidence in front of her eyes regarding how important she would be to Russell’s later plans.

As for the sixth rule, we arrive at a point where Dave and Monica were definitely in two different situation. Dave was a physical threat, as seen by the way he almost outlasted Jaison a couple weeks ago, even when Jaison had an advantage in the challenge! Dave was also good at puzzles – as he told me, “Puzzles were good to me, I was the best-fed Survivor out there – I went to every reward.”

Monica, on the other hand, was such a non-threat at challenges that her tribe almost voted her off a couple times because of it! She admitted as much to me, noting, “If I just made it to the merge, I knew I could play up my weaknesses as a physical competitor and make myself out to be less of a threat.”

However, at this point the only difference it made between the two was who would go first. Dave had to take priority because Shambo wanted him gone and the Foa Foans had already surprised her once. Both of them were equal threats in the game because neither of them were on the side of the Foa Foans, nor did anybody think they could be realistically flipped.

And besides, nobody on Foa Foa would want to appear in the finale with either of these two, facing what will be a majority-Galu jury who would almost certainly vote for them rather than a Foa Foan – which is the ultimate threat in the game.

Really, we’ve just answered the question posed by the seventh rule, which is whether the other players did the right thing in voting out Dave and Monica. At some point in the next few days, whether Thursday or Sunday, we will find out which Foa Foan made what could be considered the wrong choice. Was this the time Mick, Jaison, and/or Natalie should have flipped on Russell? It’s hard to say. Obviously, somebody is going to be left behind, but who? And as I just noted, none of them would have been in a good position going up against Dave or Monica (or Brett, who still remains) in front of the jury. Hindsight may prevail on this one.

Dave and Monica were both such threats to beat any Foa Foan that they could not be allowed to stay in the game, even though it seemed like a perfect time to overthrow Russell. They both arrived at that point by participating in the too-soon backstabbing of Erik, leading down the path that took them here, as it did their cohorts before them. Either or both of them could have put themselves in better position, though, if they had been flexible earlier in trying to seek out new allies outside their own core group. But once they chose to stick to Galu, the die was cast – and they were cast out. That is why Dave and Monica lost.

David Bloomberg is the Editor of RealityNewsOnline and can be reached at RNO@pobox.com. You can also now follow him on Twitter!

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