Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains Roundtable Predictions Update, Episode 5 – Catching Up

First off, I apologize for not writing last week, but I was out of town and knew there’d be limited computer access, meaning this week you get two articles in one.

Let’s start off by looking at the ousting of the beloved Cirie. In a way, she reminds me a lot of Gretchen from the first season of the show. Both were loved by other players and viewers alike, and like Gretchen’s sudden boot, the demise of Cirie left a lot of people sad, even if they understand the reasons for it.

And perhaps no one was sadder among our writers to see Cirie depart than RNO Editor David Bloomberg, who projected her to win it all. What's that David? You're not upset at me for not turning an article in that week? Do tell:

I'm kind of glad you weren't here to write the column, since I lost my winner! It delayed the pain of seeing myself in the standings for a week.

But while David took the biggest hit in week four, he didn’t take the only one, as both Teeuwynn and William both had her marked as a finalist, if not a winner. On the flip side, six writers overall predicted a pre-jury boot for her, and that’s exactly what happened.

Jeffrey C., do you wish to address the readers since you correctly predicted her demise? Go ahead:

What I originally wrote about Cirie was, "She's a charmer, and a schemer... and is known for both things. I think that is going to go against her this time around. Out before the jury." I've made plenty of mistakes in predicting how players will do in Survivor, but I think I hit this one dead-on.

By now, everyone knows how skillful a player Cirie is, and how loved she is by the others. But like Yau-Man in Fans vs. Favorites, this will prove to be her undoing. The others will waste no time giving her an early exit, maybe even first.

I like being right, but Cirie was one of the toughest calls to make. I really felt like she would fall victim to the same fate that claimed Rob Cesternino in the first All-Star season (and that's exactly what happened), but much like others participating in this roundtable, I liked Cirie, so it was a bittersweet call to make. She's good enough to make something out of nothing, and for a while it seemed like she was right back in the game of building alliances, but Tom was targeting her from the get-go. Even though she's never won, she was simply too big of a threat to be allowed to get deep into the game – a bigger threat even than some of the winners or finalists participating (like Sandra, Amanda, or even Colby). Sometime, Cirie and Rob C. should get together and start a support group for "Great Survivor Players Who Have Never Won."

Now, let’s discuss Tom’s eviction, the first such in his Survivor career. I thought he would make it at least to the jury stage, due to sheer physical ability, but as the Heroes’ losses have mounted, it seems as though last week’s immunity idol only postponed what was perhaps inevitable. This is an awfully risky move, given the injury to James, but the Heroes are taking a chance he’ll be fine in a few days. For their own sake, they had better be right.

David, care to comment?

In the Roundtable article, I noted, "My predictions are all based on the Hero tribe doing well early in challenges and the Villains turning on each other repeatedly, such that they will go into the merge at a disadvantage. If this doesn’t happen, I’m probably screwed." So let me just say it now and get it over with: I'm screwed. My winner was sent packing two episodes ago. Now Tom, a Hero I expected to make it to the jury, is also gone. And there doesn't appear to be any end in sight as I plummet towards prediction doom by the end of the season.

Also taking a hit this week is Jeffrey C., and he offers these comments:

I didn't think Tom would win or even make the finals, but I thought he'd do better than this early exit. Honestly, I think the tribe made a mistake getting rid of him.