RNO Roundtable: ‘Survivor: South Pacific’ Pre-Show Predictions

Each season, various Reality News Online writers put together their collective heads and try to figure out which Survivor contestants will do well and which won’t. Some of them have had pretty good success. Others, not so much. We have seven writers participating this season, so let’s see what William Hammon, Ken Kellam III, Chris Harris, Jenn Brasler, Jeffrey Clinard, Sting7, and David Bloomberg have to say!

Coach

William: Despite claims to the contrary in his bio, Coach looks to be the same old Coach once he opens his mouth. He says he’s going to try to be less arrogant and more sanely confident, and I give him credit for at least recognizing that he’s going to be a polarizing figure, but let’s call a spade a spade. Coach is Coach. There is no one else quite like him, and in all honesty, he’d be foolish to try to change who he is. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, mind you. Rob didn’t change the essential elements of who he is as a player over the course of four seasons, and he finally got his win last time out (he tweaked minor things here and there, but essentially, Boston Rob will always be Boston Rob). On the other hand, Russell did try to change his game the third time out (or at least he said he tried), and he was unceremoniously booted at the first opportunity. Coach is a known commodity who won’t come off as a threat until at least the midway point of the game, so I have every confidence that we’ll see him for a good while. The sadistic part of me hopes that Brandon backstabs him at some point, just so we can have a player get snaked by two members of the same bloodline, but I think that’s a long shot.

Ken: I find Ben’s bio (I still refuse to call him “Coach”) intriguing and confusing. I’m intrigued because he says he’s going to kill ’em with kindness this time, but confused because he’s listed as a mens’ soccer coach and pastor. So now he coaches men? And as far as being a pastor, he always seemed to have a bit of a God complex. In any case, if his teammates are able to see beyond his past reputation, he may stick around awhile, but jury duty at best.

Chris: What can I say? He’s this year’s Russell. Ozzy is the Rob – the one his team will want to keep around for his physical acumen and camp skills (and hopefully be smart enough to rid themselves of eventually, unlike Rob’s tribe). Coach is the one they will want off the island from Day 1. Coach has suggested he’ll be a totally different player this time around. He’d better be, because it’s his only chance for survival … but he may not have the chance to prove it.

Jenn: This season I’m going for something new – the random draw. I put the names of all the Survivors in a bowl, and the order I draw them out is the order I’m saying they’ll be eliminated. The last person in the bowl is the winner. So by my highly scientific, well-thought-out method, Coach will be one of the first out.

Jeffrey: Coach has always been a character, but not really in a good way. He has endless stories and a whole new audience to get sick of them. After his previous seasons, I think people, including his tribemates, have stopped listening. I think he'll be out before the jury phase.

Sting7: Coach promises us a whole new Coach. A whole new strategy. Coach 3.0 even! Not buying it. The new nice “kill them with kindness” Coach will last maybe a day. He’ll find a compadre/henchman like Tyson, and he’ll immediately start pontificating about himself, who needs to go, himself, who he distrusts, himself, who isn’t working hard enough, himself, himself, who’s here for the wrong reasons, and himself. Something about this group says they won’t tolerate Coach’s shenanigans this year.

David: Almost everybody here raised the excellent point that Coach is who he is and cannot change. That means that, unlike Rob and Russell from last season, he is not truly a strategic player of this game. He has no real ability to properly plan because his connection with reality is somewhat tenuous, at best. But William also made the good point that he will not be viewed as an early threat and will thus be kept around for a while. I agree with several others who noted that the may annoy his tribe, but Russell’s tribe didn’t vote him out quickly because he was annoying – they did it because he was a threat. Coach is no threat. He’ll almost certainly make the jury, but get no further.

Ozzy

William: First things first. What the hell is up with Ozzy’s hair? It looks like they Photoshopped Coach’s locks onto his head. Moving on, not much has changed about Ozzy from a game play aspect. He recognizes the mistakes he made the last two times out, but he can’t grasp how to correct them this time around. He just knows he wants to. Honestly, the best thing that could happen to Ozzy would be for him to be the first one voted out. Redemption Island is a twist tailor-made for a hardcore challenge competitor like him. We thought Matt’s run last season was impressive. Just watch what Ozzy will do if anyone has the stones to vote him out. In all sincerity, he may make it to the end by default, just because there will never be an opportune moment before the final five where he will be guaranteed to be gone if voted out, and even then he’ll probably win the last two individual immunity challenges to save himself. Ozzy wants to improve his game. With the Redemption Island twist, he really doesn’t need to.

Ken: With his hair as long as it is now, hopefully there won’t be any challenges taking place around heavy machinery. Barring that, third time could be a charm. We’ve already seen what happens when you let a returning player, i.e. Boston Rob, stick around, and it could well happen again. Well, probably not, but I’ve never picked the winner correctly, and this seems to be as good a way to go as any.

Chris: See above. I do think this year’s group will be smart enough to rid themselves of Ozzy when the time is right – and much like what happened to him in Micronesia, he’ll have gotten fat and happy, and won’t see it coming – but I’d really be shocked if Ozzy is out pre-merge. If he’s anywhere close to what he was in past seasons, and there are water challenges aplenty, then he’s basically a ringer who will allow his team to kill at challenges. His value drops a little bit if there aren’t many water challenges … but only a little.

Jenn: Ozzy won’t make it to the jury this time around.

Jeffrey: Ozzy is a real wildcard. There isn't any doubt that he's an asset to any tribe lucky enough to get him, and he commands a fair share of hero worship. The downside is he's coming off Rob's victory and is a known challenge winner. This poses a real challenge; when should his tribe use him, and when should he be discarded? Will the hero-worship business keep him a long time, or will Rob's victory make the tribe wish to wash their hands of him early? I'm guessing it is a balance of the two, getting to the jury or near-jury phase and then striking him out. I'm only guessing what side of that line he'll be on.

Sting7: The curious thing about Ozzy is that he is almost the flip side of the coin of Boston Rob. Boston Rob's "usefulness" with those fools who forgot they had to eliminate him in order to win was his experience. Ozzy's usefulness will be in his camp prowess. What can't he do? Fantastic as he is, I don't think Survivor can have found more fools. Ozzy will not win this season.

David: Like Coach, Ozzy has never been a great strategist. Mind you, at least he recognized this when he returned the first time, as he even told me he needed to focus more on that aspect of the game. But once he got there, it didn’t work out the way he planned. This time around, he has a better shot, but he’s still no Boston Rob. His tribe could go one of two ways: They could keep him around because he’s a challenge monster who will help them in the early stages. Or they could boot him because he’s a challenge monster and they are looking beyond the early stages and want to get him out while they can. It’s possible they may try to do something in between, where they keep him ‘til they think it’s time for a merge and then try to boot him, but good luck with planning something that precise. I think he’ll make the jury, but nobody will want to stand next to him at the end and he will not be able to create a cult like Rob did, so he’ll be voting rather than campaigning for votes at the final jury.