RNO Roundtable: ‘Survivor: South Pacific’ Pre-Show Predictions

Jenn: Christine will get to the jury.

Jeffrey: I think Christine can go fairly far in the game. She's not the oldest woman on her tribe, and I think that gives her a bit of breathing room to make deals. She should be able to make it to the jury phase of the game. Beyond that, she might have problems.

Sting7: Christine sounds like a lovely woman. We could do lunch! Survivor chances? Not so sure. If she ends up on Coach’s tribe, she could very well go home first! Teachers have a horrible rep on this show, and Christine is a person who likes human harmony. There is none of that on Survivor. Call me, Christine, you’ll be free soon.

David: While Ken mentioned her shoe sticker peeve, I think the more important one is her concern about people not waiting their turn. In the middle of a tribal debate, is she going to patiently wait to speak up, raising her hand in the hopes she gets called on? Or will she stand up and put forth her point? If the former, she’ll be trampled. As Sting said, she just seems too nice. No jury for her.

Dawn

William: I want to root for Dawn, I really do. But there’s just nothing there. So she has six adopted kids. So what? There are thousands of other families with similar dynamics. That doesn’t mean anything about raising that family can translate to this game. I always want to root for true fans of this show and of this game, but with Dawn there’s nothing to go on besides personal determination. She also has one of the biggest whammies against her, and that’s her age. She’s only 41, which isn’t ancient by Survivor standards [Editor’s Note: Or by writer/editor standards. Ahem.], but she is the second oldest woman in the game (she’s three years younger than Stacey), and the oldest woman on her tribe by 14 years. It’s a shame, because as a fan of the show for its duration, she probably would have been a great candidate in the earlier seasons when she was in her early 30s. But as we’ve seen all too often in recent years, the “fans” apply every year until the producers relent and put them on, then they’re voted out in the first three episodes by the 21-year-old models who were recruited for eye candy purposes. Unless Dawn gets into a protective alliance early, she’s toast.

Ken: She thinks she has the drive and determination to dominate the game, but in a cast that includes Coach Ben and Ozzy, she may be in for a surprise. Nonetheless, she sounds like she’s playing for the right reasons, and she could stick around.

Chris: I like Dawn. Like Christine, she’s an older woman (41), but reminds me more of the successful older women in past seasons. I think she’ll do well, similar to the woman who took her place in Nicaragua, Holly. Maybe even well enough to reach the finals. She may be seen as the harmless older lady who just keeps slipping along and slipping along … until she’s at the end.

Jenn: Out before the jury.

Jeffrey: I usually don't have a lot to go on in making these pre-season selections and I usually end up discounting some players based on an arbitrary factor. One of these is eliminating the oldest woman from each tribe, and Dawn fits that category. I think it is harder for them to bond with the younger tribe members, and are seen (rightly or wrongly) as weak. I put her out pre-jury.

Sting7: Dawn says she is “persuasive,” and if she’s as good as she says, she can stay on Coach’s good side (if she ends up on his tribe). She may have to persuade Ozzy that her age isn’t a detriment. Somehow, someway, my gut says she can pull it off!

David: As with Christine, I just don’t have a good feeling that Dawn can do anything serious here. I’m glad she’s a fan and she seems like a nice person, but we’ve seen fans who get to Survivor and really have no clue what to do or how to manipulate the social situations. I also believe her age and gender will work against her if she doesn’t immediately prove her worth in challenges. Out pre-jury.

Edna

William: Edna gets points for her sense of determination, and for being the first in her family to finish college. Lord knows if I ever get on one of these shows, I’ll be listing that as my “claim to fame” as well (you know, instead of delusions of actually being “famous”). However, this gal’s got a lot going against her. She defies Asian stereotypes by admitting she’s bad at puzzles, which may negate any perceptions of her usefulness. She hates liars (you’re on the wrong show, honey), and admits that she has a tell (shifty eyes) when she lies herself. Also, she thinks of herself as an aggressive leader, but realizes that she can just come off as bossy. The final nail in her coffin is that she compares herself favorably to Mick Trimming. If you don’t know who that is, you’re not alone. He was the useless dead weight leader-in-name-only of Russell’s original tribe in Samoa who got dragged to the end and didn’t get a single vote. I think Edna’s a great person, but she’s horrible for this game. She might make the merge, but she’ll be lucky if she does.

Ken: She describes one of her pet peeves as liars. Well, that won’t be a problem in this game now, will it? She lists her strengths as being good as tasks and building a team. But does she have the skill to dismantle that team when the time comes? I just don’t see it. They’ll get her before she gets them. And when they do, she’ll be one of those who, in her closing comments, expressed her disgust with the deceit and treachery within her tribe.

Chris: Our “older” lady trend continues. Edna seems like she could be too outspoken and too controlling, traits that will spell an early end for her in this game. I see nothing in her that screams “success.” Probst identifies her as a flirt. Not sure who she’s flirting with … Coach, maybe? I can actually kind of see that. Could she be this season’s Debbie?

Jenn: Edna will be cashing this season’s check for the runner-up.

Jeffrey: I think Edna will do well. I see her as a core alliance member in her tribe and it will carry her to the jury phase of the game. She might even go further.

Sting7: Her bio just screams “intelligence.” Smart is an excellent tool, but it won’t necessarily win the day. The social element for Edna is going to huge. I think Edna is going to be seen as a threat early on. A girl who studies that much is probably not so great an athlete; as soon as she is perceived to have cost her tribe a challenge, she will gone quick. Or Edna will quietly align herself with the majority until she can strike out on her own. She will be interesting to watch.

David: My immediate reaction tells me to side with those who think Edna will be out early. As others have noted, she is playing Survivor and two pet peeves are liars and deception? But she also seems incredibly smart and I love to see somebody who describes herself as a “critical thinker” in this game. So I’m going to give her points for intelligence and believe that she can overcome her pet peeves and think her way to the jury.

Elyse

William: Elyse is probably going to annoy the hell out of me, just by her voice alone. Seriously, she sounds like Leslie Mann if she were being strangled while talking a mile a minute. Also, anyone who thinks “Elise” is spelled with a “Y” is already on my crap list. Still, we get a lot of information out of her about her back story, her determination to win, and her ambitions within the social game. This likely means she’ll be sticking around for a while. Also, and this is to her credit, she plans to not tell anyone that she almost won Miss America. All too often we get these vapid pageant girls who claim they want to be “more than just a pretty face.” Well Elyse has the best chance to actually make this work by not even mentioning her years as a model and pageant girl to the others, and just focus on the game. She may not win (and frankly I hope she doesn’t – again, she already annoys me), but she has the potential to do very well.