RNO Roundtable: ‘Survivor: South Pacific’ Pre-Show Predictions

Chris: Probst compares John to Woody Allen. He also seems to think he could be a real player, despite his less-than-imposing looks. It’s hard to be a Rob Cesternino anymore, it seems, but if anyone could pull it off, I’d say it would be John. Not only is he a Harvard law student, but as William mentioned, he wrote about Survivor and won a prestigious prize for his essay there. His tribe placement could make all the difference. If Ozzy is on his tribe, they will win a lot and he will be protected, allowing him to show off his mental game. If he’s with Coach, they’ll likely lose more, and a non-physical-threat like John could be among the first ones off. Then again, if he can weasel his way onto the jury from the less advantageous position, we’ll know he’s a player.

Jenn: Out before the jury.

Jeffrey: I don't doubt John is smart. However, neurotic, insecure, and brilliant are not qualities I look for in a winner. His physical attributes are lacking as well. I think I'd like him a great deal in real life. I just don't like his chances in Survivor at all. Out before the jury.

Sting7: John is a contestant I am going to enjoy. Harvard Law! He’s a hybrid of Yul, Johnathan, and Rob C.! A number of contestants have suggested they are cunning, but I suggest they heard John say it! I fully expect John to use social acumen to the highest level. I don’t think he’ll have a chance of outdoing Albert or Ozzy, so he’ll have to hang his hat on that. Unlike Brandon, I think John will be aware of his situation and act accordingly.

David: I want John to do well. He shares another pet peeve with me (“People who think or act like they are smarter than they actually are”), he mentions the likes of Rob Cesternino, Yul, and Jonathan, and he seems to understand the game. I have to say that I’m rooting for this guy! Will I let me emotions overtake my brains? In this case, hell yeah!

Keith

William: Keith, like Kelly B. two seasons ago, has a medical condition that can’t be ignored. Kelly had an artificial leg, and Keith has a congenital heart defect that requires him to have a pacemaker. That can make life exceedingly difficult for him. He mentions that as a kid he wasn’t allowed to play contact sports for fear that the pacemaker would be jarred or damaged. That will make for a very sticky situation during some of the rougher tribal immunity challenges. He’ll be on the same tribe as Ozzy, and I think the two of them can get along well, with Ozzy respecting Keith’s drive and physical spirit. At the same time, Ozzy is a fierce competitor who wants to win at all costs. Unless Keith is in a tight alliance, I can certainly see his heart defect being used as a reason to boot him earlier than someone of his physique would normally go out.

Ken: Another player who seems to have no idea how to play the game. He thinks he’ll survive because he’s EMT certified? Last time I check, one of the rules for winning was not, “Provide medical care.” He seems to think he can make others think his decisions are in their best interests, but I have the feeling they’ll see right through him. I have no doubt he’s here to win, and that he thinks he can. I just don’t see him having the skills to pull it off.

Chris: I agree with Probst: Keith will make it to the merge just because he can help his team physically in challenges, but he doesn’t seem like a very cutthroat player beyond that. That being said, Keith does compare himself to Boston Rob, so maybe there’s more there than meets the eye. I call delusion, but maybe it won’t matter: Given the recent trend of nice guys beating out cunning strategists, Keith’s meh-ness may work in his favor.

Jenn: Keith was the last name drawn from the bowl, so this lucky guy gets the title of Sole Survivor.

Jeffrey: Keith shouldn't have any problems making the jury. In fact, he looks like a challenge threat and a tribe asset. He's also the kind of toxic asset who becomes a threat towards the last stages of the game and is eliminated. Jury duty.

Sting7: While John fascinates me, Keith doesn’t interest me at all. I think Keith is probably a very nice guy, but I see nothing in his bio that suggests he will do well in this game. He has an EMT certification. That’s nice. He moved to Hawaii because it was a dream. Great. The fact that he admires Boston Rob, someone who bears no resemblance to him, says Keith will learn a lot about himself, but he won’t win. Let’s hope he joins a good alliance.

David: One of Keith’s pet peeves is people talking about him behind his back. Man, he’s on the wrong show. Maybe I’m judging too much from his physical appearance and his vapid smile, but I just don’t see very much indication that there’s anybody home there. He may get lucky and hook up with some other young players, but I think he’s out before the jury.

Mark

William: I automatically have to root for Mark, as he is this season’s YouTube contest winner and a lifelong fan of the show (unlike last year’s winner, Jimmy Tarantino, who had never seen the show before and applied on a dare from his sister). These people get massive props from me. Every time one of them gets a chance, there’s a model out there who doesn’t. That said, Mark strikes me much more as a fan of the show than he is a fan of the game. He seems like he’s here much more for the experience than for the actual competition. He’ll play to win. I have no doubt about that. But he’s got his age working against him, he doesn’t seem to have any sort of game plan, and he acts like he’s more worried about the lack of luxuries than his competitors. I think he’ll be a fun character for as long as he’s around, but I doubt we’ll see him for too long.

Ken: He cites listening skills as a strength, and that’s good. But he also cites lifelong leadership skills. That’s not so good. No doubt he’ll be a challenge asset in the beginning, but without the right alliance, he could be history shortly after the merge.

Chris: Older guys tend to get a fairer shot than older women in this game, but Mark is hardly Tom Westman, at least physically. All the credit in the world goes to Mark for being a retired NYPD detective, much like Tom was a firefighter. However, he’s quite a character, and his strong personality could be an acquired taste among his tribe. If his age works against him too, he could be in for a short stay in the South Pacific.

Jenn: Sorry, Mark, but you’ll be the first out. The bowl has spoken.

Jeffrey: Mark is either going to be loved or hated. If he can keep his sarcasm to the confessional cameras, he should do okay. He's in trouble if he doesn't or his tribe goes on a losing streak and has to cut more than their fair share of players. All things considered, I suspect he's going to wear out his welcome and get the boot before the jury forms.

Sting7: Being older presents a whole new set of challenges for a Survivor contestant. Mark will need to stay under the radar. He’ll need to be a buddy and a confidante, but he must avoid being put in a leadership role. With Ozzy and Coach around, that will be easier. Mark seems physically fit and sharp. My gut says Mark will be around for a long time.

David: I have a good feeling about Mark. Nobody will want to vote out a retired cop who seems like he will come across as a nice guy. On the other hand, I hope he doesn’t screw up in any early challenges. Overall, though, I think he’ll hit the jury.