RNO Roundtable: ‘Survivor: South Pacific’ Pre-Show Predictions

Ken: Semhar is this season’s designated “African-American female with an unusual name.” She claims she can make friends with almost anyone, and cites having lived in Eritrea. But I see her as another player who gets carried along because others need her vote, and then being discarded because they no longer need her. Or she could rub others the wrong way and get dispatched rather early. Either way, no million dollars here.

Chris: Probst suggests that Semhar is not cut out for this game and she only cares about her hair. I’m gonna take his word for it and say we won’t see a lot of Semhar, largely because I see nothing else about her that makes me think she has any real Survivor skills, other than being a self-proclaimed “people person.” Then again ... Anyway, she says she knows how to ask for things and how to phrase things. Yep. I learned those skills too – when I was about two or three. So what makes you special, Semhar?

Jenn: She’ll be out before the jury phase.

Jeffrey: Semhar fits one of the roles I see making it a long way into the game – the silly flirty girl who never gets a jury vote because she does nothing in the game besides hook up with a senior partner. That's why I suspect she'll make it to the finals and not win.

Sting7: She’s a spoken-word artist and watches a lot of Oprah. Meet the annoying one! She lived in Eritrea! That’s cool, I lived in France! Doesn’t mean I’m going to win Survivor! Expect someone to get a Semhar Seminar within the first two weeks. Then, expect a very large target on her back, and inevitably, she will be hit.

David: Semhar thinks she’ll win because nobody expects her to do so. I think nobody expects her to do so because there is no way she will do so! I suppose it’s possible she’ll get carried along somehow, but I just can’t bring myself to think that way. Out before the jury.

Sophie

William: I think Sophie may very well be Russell’s female equivalent. Sadly, that will likely be to her detriment. Fair or not, arrogant, conniving women are punished much more harshly (and much earlier in the game) for those transgressions than men are. Whether it’s the perception that others are intimidated by the persona, or if they just come off as too bitchy, women usually pay the price for being cutthroat a lot more than men do. I have my hopes for Sophie, but she had better get a strong alliance together quickly. I have a sneaking suspicion that she’s going to want to form a women’s alliance early on, but she doesn’t have the right women on her tribe to pull it off. Mikayla will likely cling to the stronger men, Edna may become a lightning rod, and Christine will just be struggling to survive from the first day, along with Stacey. Also, with Coach on her tribe, she has to know that he is one of the textbook men who are “intimidated by strong women,” and if she comes on too strong, she’ll be an early, and convenient, target. Still, I think she’s smart enough to overcome all that and make a decent showing for herself.

Ken: One of her pet peeves is smart women who pretend to be dumb. It’s a good thing she’s not playing the game with Russell. Of course, she could still be in for a rude awakening. She admits to having bragged to friends about how easy the game is and how good she would be. If she believes that, she’s even more delusional than Mikayla. Something tells me that she really has no idea what’s in store for her. In addition, she calls herself a leader and cites her willingness to step up – which could lead to her tribe’s willingness to give her the boot. One way or another she’s getting blindsided – either by her tribe, or by the harshness of the game.

Chris: Sophie thinks she’s the smartest person out here. She a geek, she’s a jock, she’s a former prom princess. She does it all. She actually does have a nice set of brains on her, but in a way that makes her seem like she’s not as bright as she believes she is. If she underestimates her competition, she could go down hard. I also don’t see her getting along well with Coach, if that situation arises. It’s a shame, because I actually kind of like her personally, but I don’t see her hanging around long.

Jenn: Also out before the jury.

Jeffrey: Sophie is my other candidates for junior partner in a male / female alliance who won't get votes to win. However, as her pet peeve is smart women who pretend to be dumb, I don't think she will fit into the role. On the other hand, I also don’t think she will perform of my own Survivor pet peeves – becoming the young woman who tries to make beauty products out of island materials. I see her making the jury. I don't see her winning.

Sting7: There is something I like about Sophie. She’s an unconventional woman in unconventional circumstances! I think she will surprise herself. Sadly, I think her Sophie-ness will make her an unintentional outsider with her tribe. Coach would despise her! She will have trouble with the Mikaylas and the Elyses. The guys won’t accept her and the girls will treat her like the high school girls treated Carrie. Sophie hates girls who act dumber than they are, when that may be the very prescription for her survival!

David: Sophie likes parts of Russell and Stephen, which means she ranks pretty well right off the bat. But can she use those things and her own intelligence to get herself far in the game? Or will she instead fall prey to her own ego? Her answer to the question of why she’ll win certainly seems to suggest the latter, which worries me. Still, right now I see her as potentially the woman who makes it the farthest in the game.

Stacey

William: I get the feeling from watching Stacey’s video that the editors were trying to showcase as much of her personality as possible because we won’t get a chance to see it in the game when she’s voted out first. She’s got a lot going against her. She’s the oldest woman in the game (44 years old, which isn’t terrible, but the older women are always targets), she’s loud, she’s a “diva,” and even worse, she’s a religious diva. She reminds me of Joanna from Amazon, who was the fourth one voted out because she annoyed everyone (and then earned herself a Reality TV Hall of Shame induction for her behavior in the game and once she left it!). In strategic terms, she claims to know the game and is willing to do any amount of lying and backstabbing to accomplish her goals. On the other hand, she compares herself with Vecepia Towery, the winner of Marquesas, who I will always consider the least deserving winner of this game, as she actively decided not to play the game, then claimed a “holier than thou” attitude after the few times where she did participate in a backstabbing. She’s not quite annoying to the level of the stereotypical “crazy black woman” that reality shows love to cast (and the audience rolls their eyes at every time), but that doesn’t say much. At worst she’s Joanna. At best she’s Francesca (Fransessqua). Either way, it does not auger well for her.

Ken: Yet another player who cites leadership skills. But she’s also a team player. Oh, and she’ll win because she’s not a quitter. I hate to not like Stacey since she’s from my neck of the woods, but leadership skills can be hazardous to your game, being a team player will only get you so far, and being a non-quitter can be a moot point if you’re also a non-plotter. And since we’re on the subject, and I like to ask questions, let me ask the first one of the season: Why do so many in this cast cite leadership skills? Haven’t they watched previous editions? But I digress. Don’t expect to see Stacey hanging around at the end.

Chris: There are a lot of women on the show this year whose mouths make it seem like they may not be attractive options to keep around. I think she’s a tough woman, and like Jane, she might be able to endear herself to the right alliance. If she can’t manage that... she’s toast.

Jenn: Stacey will make it all the way to the finals.

Jeffrey: Stacey is the oldest female member of her tribe, so I've made her an early exit. I don't think she can fit in with her tribe and her age makes her an easy target early. Out before the jury.