RNO Roundtable: ‘Survivor: One World’ Pre-Show Predictions

Each season, various Reality News Online writers put together their collective heads and try to figure out which Survivor contestants will do well and which won’t. Some of them have had pretty good success. Others, not so much. We have eight writers participating this season, so let’s see what William Hammon, Sarah Freeman, Ken Kellam III, Chris Harris, Jenn Brasler, Jeffrey Clinard, Stinger James, and David Bloomberg have to say!

Alicia

William: Alicia puzzles me. She’s a special ed teacher, which should mean she has infinite patience. At the same time, last season’s special ed teacher, Christine, had anything but. Were it not for challenge prowess on Extended Failure Island, we’d likely not even remember her. In her video, Alicia talks about being the representative for girls who aren’t models and aren’t comfortable in a bikini. However, in her bio, we get a picture of her in a bikini that leaves little to the imagination, and in both the bio and the video she declares that she’ll manipulate the men with her good looks. So remember, young ladies of America, if you’re insecure about your looks, flaunt them in hopes of making men your drooling slaves. CBS cares. (Yes, I’m “borrowing” Craig Ferguson’s bit.) As far as the game is concerned, she’s convinced she’ll be able to manipulate and backstab, as she’ll flirt with the guys and get all the girls to somehow confide in her and trust her. The trouble is, with the one beach format, the moment she starts flirting, she’s just as likely to have all the women distrust her and think she’s liable to flip sides. I give her a puncher’s chance, but she’ll have a hard road to hoe.

Sarah: Alicia turned me off the moment she said she was there for all the girls who were uncomfortable in a bikini. Sorry, the woman there for those of us who are uncomfortable in bikinis would be one who is not wearing a bikini. So I am admittedly prejudiced, but I think Alicia's going to suffer from the tribes-by-gender approach. She's going into the game hoping that her physical looks will get her underestimated, but I think the other women will see her as more of a threat who doesn't bring enough to challenges and send her home early.

Ken: She claims she’ll make good TV. So did Russell Hantz. She doesn’t like people who talk about themselves, so logically, she agreed to do a TV show that by its very nature appeals to huge egos. Smart move. Fortunately, she seems to understand the importance of strategizing, comparing herself to Jenna Morasca. Will she go as far as Jenna? Maybe, maybe not. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see her still around come merge time.

Chris: Strike 1: Her pet peeves include burping and farting. When you’re dirty, sleep-deprived, and living in the woods, the niceties go out the window. Hope she’s ready for that. Strike 2: Her stated reason for being on the show is not to win but to “make good TV.” Strike 3: She teaches Special Ed, which is a wonderful calling, but means she’s mostly around people who are operating without guile and putting a lot of trust in Alicia, leaning on her for help in an unforgiving world. Survivor is not a place where people will look to Alicia as a source of trust or help. Can she adapt to that type of environment as well as she seems to think she will? I count three strikes, and that means she’s out. Early.

Jenn: Last season I randomly chose my “predictions” from a bowl. That didn’t work out so well. (Darn you, Keith!) This season I’m going for the randomization again, but with the help of technology. I’ve put all of the contestants’ names into a randomizer, and the resulting list is the order in which they’ll be eliminated. I can’t say this will be any more effective than the bowl, but it can’t be any worse. That said, Alicia will be one of the first Survivors voted out this season.

Jeffrey: Alicia doesn't inspire “winner” in me. She inspires “loyal voter.” Sometimes they can win if the mastermind is hated, but usually they become also-runs. Third finalist.

Stinger James: When asked her reason(s) for being on Survivor, her answer, was “I’ll make good TV.” Eyebrow cocked. Her motivations are troubling. She sounds like someone who hasn’t really thought out what she’s getting into. She may be carted off on a helicopter, but no way she’s getting a million.

David: I see nothing about Alicia that makes me think she has what it takes to succeed on Survivor. If this were a season where the men and women were on mixed tribes, she might have a shot. But considering that part of her plan was to use her looks to succeed, I just don’t think that’s gonna fly on an all-female tribe. Oh, and she’s easily annoyed. Buh-bye.

Bill

William: All I can say is, it’s about damn time. It took 24 freaking seasons to get an actual “Bill” on this show. And no, Billy Garcia from Cook Islands doesn’t count. His name is Virgilio, not Bill, or Billy, or Will, or any other derivative of my proud moniker. Then again, I shouldn’t be surprised. It took until Tocantins just to get a Joe. Anyway, I’ve seen Bill’s stand-up, and he’s quite funny (go to YouTube and search “Waiter Song”), which bodes well for his social game, assuming his sense of humor doesn’t offend everyone. As an ex-Marine who served in wartime, he’s certainly got the physical attributes needed to do well. However, he notes in his video that he only started watching the show during Heroes vs. Villains, which means his limited exposure to the show has only been in seasons where strategy was not really rewarded. Boston Rob won against a puppet and a crazy person, and this season filmed right after South Pacific, so he didn’t get to see the likes of Cochran, Sophie, Jim, and Albert actually play the damn game. As such, his only real chance to win is if he gets to the end against people who are either useless or utterly repellant. He also has to hope for a very vindictive jury. He’s got the skills necessary to at least make the jury, but I can’t give my namesake much of a chance beyond that.

Sarah: Ironically, the stand-up comedian is one of the few contestants who isn't claiming he'll be funny. Instead, he's more focused on his military background. As William notes, he admits he only started watching Survivor with Heroes vs. Villains, which gives him less than a year's experience of the show. Despite this, he seems amiable enough to fit in socially and smart enough to figure things out as he goes along, so I'd think he'd make jury at least.

Ken: This stand-up comedian is about to enter an environment where a sense of humor will more than come in handy. Ironically, he cites clichés as a pet peeve, then says he’ll win because he’s “physically capable, a great teammate, and would do whatever it takes to win.” Those first two, in addition to being major clichés themselves, could be the very things that will come back to haunt him once the merge hits.

Chris: Bill lists the reasons why he thinks he’ll do well as being “athletic ex-military experience, intelligence, competitive spirit, ability to adapt and being a team player.” All those sound promising, at least in the first half of the game, but … a stand-up comedian? I have no idea how to judge that one. It does suggest though that he’ll be able to make people laugh and win them over personally, instead of being the rigid hard-ass type that military types can sometimes present (no offense to our servicemen and women, but you have to admit, it goes with the territory and for a good reason). He says, in fact, that a lot of people don’t peg him as being ex-military, so in a social game, that could work in his favor. His physicality will likely get him to the merge, at the very least, and I can see his personality carrying him further.

Jenn: Bill will only make it as far as the jury phase.

Jeffrey: Bill is another player who seems to be a follower rather than a leader. However, I don't think he can make it to the finals as I suspect the women are going to have the advantage this season. I'll put him in the jury pool.

Stinger James: Haven’t had too many stand-up comedians on the show! Bill’s sense of humor and athleticism will serve him well, unless he’s annoying. Being former military, Bill has had to deal with disparate personalities, and has had to adapt himself into their framework, so I’m sticking to the former. Bill is a lock for the jury, if not more.

David: I like Bill and hope he does well. He’s a comedian, which theoretically should make him good at the social game. And he’s former military, so he knows how and when to work as part of a team. I think he will make an early alliance and stick around for a while. Could he make it all the way? Hmmm…

Chelsea

William: If Chelsea seems familiar to you, it’s because we’ve seen clones of her on just about every season for the better part of the last five years or so. She’s a generic blonde girl from the south who just happens to be in pharmaceutical sales (read: out of work model). The reason this particular generic blonde from the south is on the show is because she’s bestie-bestie-best friends with Jaime Huffman (nee Dugan) from the China season. You might remember her as the first ditz to ever play a fake idol and who later married fellow castmate Erik the Virgin. She now works for the show’s casting department, which is how Chelsea has been forced onto our screens. Chelsea has no idea how the game is played, and I’d wager she’s never watched the show apart from Jaime’s season. However, at least one generic blonde makes the merge every season, she knows how to spear fish, which means she’ll likely be the principle food provider on her tribe, and when the inevitable tribe swap happens (every time a season messes with the cast dynamic, they have a tribal switch; don’t think it won’t happen here) she’ll probably cozy up to the first gullible guy willing to drag her along for the sake of potential future “relations.”

Sarah: Chelsea's got a great resume: strong work ethic, certified scuba diver, knows how to hunt and, even better, spearfish. What I'm not so sure about is her social game, and whether she'll be perceptive enough to know when to drop her alliance. But with her qualifications, people will want to keep her around. She'll be unlucky if she doesn't make the jury.

Ken: Another medical sales rep graces the game. At least she knows why she’s here: To win the loot. But being on an all-girls tribe could well be her doom if the others think she’s using flirting to her advantage for later on. If she can survive until a tribal swap, she may go deep into the game. Otherwise, out before jury.

Chris: I’m sure I’m not the only person who takes a first look at Chelsea and worries we’re in for a Whitney redux, but I don’t really believe that’s the case. Unfortunately, that’s a double-edged sword this season. If she were starting out on a co-ed tribe, I think she’d be locked in from the get-go, but I don’t know that the women will take to her as naturally. In fact, you can imagine how popular she’ll be with the guys in the single-camp setting, which might lead to accusations of getting buddy-buddy with the enemy from her distaff tribemates. If there’s some kind of popularity-based coup early on, I have a hunch that Chelsea will be at the heart of it. As such, I’m not counting on her to be around for very long.

Jenn: She’ll be one of the last appointees to the jury.