RNO Roundtable: ‘Survivor: One World’ Pre-Show Predictions

Jeffrey: He's an older man, and is out there to lose weight (among other things). He thinks he's king of the jungle, and is going to try for alpha male status. There can only be one of them... and he isn't it. Out before the jury phase.

Stinger James: Greg is a fascinating mélange of a human being – plastic surgeon (not broke), organist, wrestler. So much depends on how much of that mélange he wants to share. Plastic surgeons typically don’t need a million dollars. It could make him a target if he chooses to be honest about his occupation. The wrestler part suggests he’s quite fit. He’s the oldest contestant, so he’ll need to be fit. Still, when the tribe starts struggling at challenges, women and the elderly are jettisoned first!

David: Probst immediately pinpointed a likely big weakness for Greg – that he’s very smart but wants everybody else to know it. That doesn’t usually go over well on Survivor (or, for that matter, real life – but you can’t usually vote people out of real life). Probst also thinks he has the potential to be his own worst enemy and Greg has admitted as much. Add the fact that he’s the “old guy” on a tribe that has plenty of young studs to carry the challenge load. Top it all off with his admiration for Coach’s moral game and he looks like possibly the first guy voted out.

Jay

William: Am I the only one who finds it odd that male models always admit they’re models, but when it comes to the women, most of them need fake job titles like “pharmaceutical sales rep”? Is it just me? Anyway, Jay will be, at best, an ineffectual player. He has an oddly insightful strategy to get rid of all the strategic players. My guess is that if he succeeds in that vein, he feels he’s strong enough to dominate the challenges from there on. However, even he admits that he doesn’t know how he’ll pull that off. There are a couple of other hilarious contradictions in his bio and video. First of all, having been a missionary, he said his favorite mission was to Brazil. Oh yeah, because if there’s one country that definitely needs an influx of Christianity, it’s the country with a giant statue of Jesus as their major landmark. Secondly, he compares himself to Colby and Rupert, but has the unmitigated gall to say that they “didn’t have the physical ability to perform.” That’s right: Colby Donaldson, who won five consecutive immunity challenges to get to the end in his first season,; and Rupert Boneham, who willed his tribe and himself to victory in countless challenges over his first two seasons, somehow didn’t have the physical ability to perform. That’s how you know Jay’s a recruit. He’s clearly only seen Heroes vs. Villains, where those two were not the powerhouses they had once been (Rupert due to injury, Colby due to indifference and age), because that’s the only way someone could be so ignorant of two of the greatest physical competitors this show has ever seen. As far as his chances go, Jay can possibly make the jury on physique alone, but even then it’s not cut and dry, and there’s no way in Hell (save him, Jeebus!) he’s winning. His biggest obstacle will be Colton. Colton is a strategist, which means Jay would target him. Also, don’t discount the possibility that Jay, an avowed Christian, could target Colton, who is out, loud, and proud. If they do come to loggerheads, I’ll bet on the one whom Probst has identified as someone to watch, and that’s Colton.

Sarah: Probably the most generic of the men, Jay is a laid-back model who should be useful for challenges and an easy alliance member – he's also one of half a dozen cast members who's already talking about making a big move. The only thing that stands out for me is that he says he wants to get rid of the smart people first, because (he claims) nobody ever does that. First of all, yes they do (e.g., Kristina and Francesca from Redemption Island, which he must have seen before he left), and second of all... smart people tend to notice such game play. On that basis, I'll say his tactics will get him voted off shortly before the merge and the individual immunities.

Ken: Jay compares himself to Colby and Rupert, but as William noted, for some odd reason, he claims they didn’t have the physical ability to perform. Hello? Did he see the way Colby dominated challenges in the Outback, only to lose due to a boneheaded final three move? Did he see how Rupert dominated the team stage of Pearl Islands, only to lose every time because he couldn’t strategize? The answer to both of these questions would appear to be “No.” Jay says he would choose their game play and his physicality. If his physicality is really on a par with their game play, he probably won’t be long for this game.

Chris: Based on the results of recent seasons, Jay’s upfront approach to his Christianity will mean he’ll go pretty far in this game. However, his athletic build is probably the better indicator that he’ll get to at least the merge, because he’ll be useful in challenges. Will he clash with Colton because of obvious reasons, or will they bond as Southerners? That could play an interesting part in the tribal dynamics. Jay says that he’s “laid-back“ and not the “macho man walking around trying to dominate everybody,” and you know what? I believe him. I think he’ll get along well with the ladies, which could mean he’ll have the resources in place that he’ll need to move along post-merge. He’s not cutthroat enough to win … but then again, I would have said the same about Fabio, so what do I know?

Jenn: He’ll come really close to glory but ultimately land on the jury.

Jeffrey: Jay looks like a strong competitor, and I think that is going to get him through the first part of the game. However, I don't see him winning, or making it to the final three. Jury duty.

Stinger James: Reading his profile made me think of Tim Tebow. He’s managed to draw a parallel with his athleticism and his faith. Jay thinks he’s level-headed and intelligent (yet he misidentified Colby as a contestant without physicality even though Colby won something like six challenges in a row on season two!). I sense Jay will follow his way into the jury. Whether he has the kind of mean streak to win the game is very much in doubt.

David: There are a number of things I like about Jay. First, although he is religious, he says he intends to lie, cheat, or steal as necessary in the game. He doesn’t plan on telling people he’s a model. And he intends to play the role of the quiet Southern country boy. What worries me is his statement that he can be blunt with people and hurt their feelings. I think he can overcome or avoid the latter and make it pretty far into the game.

Jonas

William: The moment I saw this guy’s name, my mind immediately went to the Weezer song (and if the same thing happened to you, we would probably be friends). Apart from that, however, I really like Jonas. He seems like a toned down version of Colton, noting that he’s willing to lie and backstab, and while he doesn’t want to be the villain, he won’t complain if he’s portrayed as such. What stands out the most to me is a line from his video, where he justifies lying and backstabbing by pointing out that there have already been 23 seasons of this show. If you don’t know that this goes on, that’s your problem, not his. Kudos to you, Jonas. Kudos. He’ll probably have a decent social game (comparing himself to Fabio), and being a sushi chef, he can probably do great things with the fish the tribe catches. His biggest threat, as with Jay, will be Colton. If Colton’s like Russell, he’ll want to get rid of the strategic competition, which will make Jonas an early target. If Colton wants strategic allies, particularly one who seems a bit more docile when it comes to decision-making, then he and Jonas will be a formidable pair. For now, he’s on the bubble for the jury.

Sarah: A sushi chef who spear-fishes has got to be a lock for the jury at the very least! Jonas came across as quite bland in his interview, so could easily get the silent edit this season, but I liked what he was saying. He's got Ozzy's island experience, but he's more mature, less athletic, and is quite clear on Survivor being a game of lying and manipulation. He won't be considered a threat early on, but I think he's going to be well-liked enough to be a big threat at the end... I wonder if he's got the strategy to work around that and get himself in the finals?

Ken: He compares himself to Fabio, and we all know how that worked out – oh, wait, Fabio won, didn’t he? Jonas claims he’ll win because he has a track record of doing what he sets out to achieve. Guess what? So do most of the people in this game, dude. He seems to think he’ll win because he can get along with people. If that’s all the strategizing he intends to do, he can say goodbye to any chance of winning, even if he makes the finals.

Chris: Jones will probably be pegged almost immediately as “tribe cook,” and he’d better relish that role, since he’s not going to be one of the athletic dynamos, from the looks of it. Athletic enough to get by? Sure. But he lacks the six-pack of some of his tribemates. He talks about being perceived as a villain, being aware that people lie and backstab, and knowing what others have done over the history of the show, and that suggests he’ll be a savvy, strategic player. That also suggests he’ll go far in the game, but will piss off too many people to actually win.

Jenn: Like the musical brothers who share his name, Jonas will leave the show with fame and fortune. At least, unless the randomizer is wrong. And what are the chances of that?

Jeffrey: Jonas is likely to leave early because he's older than most of the other males and I doubt his plan to win hearts with great cooking is going to make a difference. That means he'll be a quick exit and won't be voting for a winner.

Stinger James: A chef on Survivor! He could be awesome at keeping his team happily fed! A lot will depend on his social game. He describes himself as “care free,” which could come off as if he doesn’t care! Jonas could go very far or seen as completely useless (I can season my own rice, thanks) and be easily dismissed. Social game is all… I don’t have a good feeling about this.

David: Positives for Jonas: He has watched every season of the show, he is used to this climate and island living, and he’s a sushi chef. Negatives: He’s an admittedly poor liar and Probst doesn’t think he’ll be aggressive enough to jump into the right alliance early. So, basically, he has physical positives and social negatives. In this game, social outweighs physical, so it doesn’t bode well for Jonas.