RNO Roundtable: ‘Survivor: One World’ Pre-Show Predictions

Sarah: Her name is Kourtney Moon, which immediately makes me think of Daphne Moon from Frasier, and it's entirely appropriate since she's been cast as the kooky-girl (which is presumably also why she spells her name with a K). She's certainly more interested in staying true to herself than in playing the game, so I was all set to dislike Kourtney, but in the end I didn't have it in me. She's a mechanic (pity her name isn't Kaylee for a Firefly reference) and a single mother, which gives her a grounding that should help her relate to the older and more cynical players. As a sweet non-threat, she could get taken under somebody's wing and carried all the way to the end... But if she doesn't find that somebody, she'll be out pre-merge thanks to her own admission that she doesn't have the physical ability of her fellow players.

Ken: Since one of her pet peeves is people who chew others and spit them out simply because they can, it’s a good thing she isn’t playing this game with Russell Hantz. But to her credit, I love the reason she thinks she’ll win: Because nothing in this world makes any sense whatsoever and anything really is possible. If you need further proof of this, look no further than last season, when probably nobody thought Sophie had a shot. But will lightning strike twice? I don’t think so. Much as I’d like to see her stick around, I just don’t see it happening.

Chris: Strike 1: Her “claim to fame” is having a child. Since when is that a “claim to fame”? Women do that all the time. It’s the reason why we have, y’know, a human population on this planet. Strike 2: She compares herself to former castaways Jud and Courtney, neither of whom is especially remembered for being a great Survivor player. Strike 3: She has no patience for hypocrisy and wants to be thought of as a “nice person” in the game. Then go play The Amazing Race. This is not the game for you. Out!

Jenn: Kourtney will be the first Survivor to make the jury.

Jeffrey: I think Kourtney can do quite well. Despite her appearance, I think she'll fit in well with her initial tribe and may make it to the finals. I don't think she'll win though, as people who claims they need the money usually don't win it. Jury duty.

Stinger James: Profiles like Kourtney’s usually annoy me. I don’t mean to sound insensitive, my fair women, but women have been squeezing children out of that tiny orifice since time began. Stop trying to make it a special achievement! (Also, when your child is the most interesting person you know, it’s probably time to reassess some things.) That said, Kourtney seems like she would throw herself in front of a train for her kid. Someone that hyper-motivated will not flinch to make big moves and tough decisions to further herself in the game. Kourtney also showed some writing acumen, which suggests a quick wit and a sharp mind. Not bad qualities to have on Survivor!

David: When I was discussing Kim, above, I mentioned that her downfall could be the way she’s looking at Survivor in terms of her personal life. The same goes for Kourtney – except multiply that problem by a bunch. She admits that in life, she has often just up and quit when the going got tough. Now she’s here for her son, but I wonder how much of her oomph will fade when she starts to really miss him and realizes how difficult this game can be. Even if she pushes through, she doesn’t seem strategic enough to pull off a good showing.

Leif

William: I think I have a fourth-degree connection to Leif, as his wife was recently on a game show with my best friend. Through that connection, I know that Leif is a huge Survivor fan, which means I’m already rooting for him. There will be some novelty to his status as the first little person in the show’s history, but that will wear off quickly, especially when the others realize that he’s pretty jacked despite his small stature. He will pleasantly surprise his tribemates and perform fairly well in challenges. According to his bio, he’s not a fan of backstabbing, but in his video he admits he’ll be conniving if the situation calls for it. Just like Kat is being presented as an underdog on the women’s tribe, I think the same can be said for Leif on the men’s side, which means he’ll probably go pretty far. One thing’s for sure, there’s going to be a lot of laughs when he tells his tribe that he’s a phlebotomist, as there will invariably be at least one or two people who can’t even pronounce the word, much less spell it. I think this guy is going to be a lot of fun. The novelty of his stature got him on the show, but his personality and his skill will be what wins the audience over.

Sarah: Leif is out to prove himself, as the first little person to play Survivor. By the sounds of it, he's got the physical and survival skills to do that, but that doesn't mean he'll succeed at the game. While he compares himself to Nicaragua’s winner, Fabio, he doesn't refer to Kelly Bruno, the amputee on the same season. Kelly's tribemates were reluctant to align with her because she had an inbuilt underdog story to sell the jury, and she got voted out before the merge. Leif is bound to have the same problem, and I don't think he's got the social game to overcome it – especially if he's not even anticipating it.

Ken: He hates backstabbers and being taken advantage of. That explains why he’s on Survivor. He says he’s beyond willing, ready, and able to “outwit, outplay, and outlast” all the other. But being willing and being able to pull it off are two different things, and I just don’t see it from this guy.

Chris: Leif may be the most difficult person in this game on whom to get a good read. You’d think his size would work against him, but I don’t know that; there may be advantages to being smaller than the other contestants that we’ve never had a chance to see on this show previously. He’s going to be a hard guy to ignore, which means that people will be talking to him, and he’ll be talking to people… and that’s a good thing, because that’s how you develop alliances and stay in the loop around camp. Despite his size, he’s in good shape and has survival skills, so his tribe may find value in him, and he understands that sometimes you have to be conniving, which means he’s no dummy. I just don’t know. I think he has potential to win, and potential to be the first one out.

Jenn: If there’s a final three, Leif will be in it. If not, he’ll serve on the jury instead.

Jeffrey: Leif should do well, particularly if he is as good as he claims in the outdoors. He also has the right mental outlook to do well in the game. The only thing stopping me from putting him near the winner's circle is a gut feeling the women are going to outplay the men this time. Jury duty.

Stinger James: I think we all are going to learn a lot from Leif! Prepare yourself: this may come off as a bit callous, but they pay me to analyze. Leif is in an awesome position, because no one will want to be known as the ones who voted off the little person. Unless Leif proves to be a complete pain in the assets, he’s there for a good long time. All he has to do is be not-annoying. He won’t even have to show that much personality, just don’t be in the way! Jury for damn sure.

David: Several of my fellow writers have mentioned the interesting position Leif will have in the game. Sarah noted the comparison to Kelly and her underdog story. Stinger mentioned that nobody would want to be the one to vote off the little person. Both of these will likely come into play. Based on the behavior of other Survivors when dealing with a contestant who had some sort of physical impairment, I think his tribemates will at first be hesitant to vote him out so they don’t look like total jerks. Somewhere along the later game, though, they will conclude that going up against him is too dangerous because he has the whole underdog thing on his side. Because of that, if his opponents are at all smart, he’ll end up in the jury.

Matt

William: Matt seems like the prototypical Survivor contestant. He’s physically fit, he’s intelligent, and (at least according to him) he has the charisma to form strong alliances that move his agenda forward. That said, there are some red flags. For one thing, while he understands that everyone will be playing their own game, he says that he’ll let it go so long as it doesn’t interfere with his game. Well, eventually everyone’s game plan will interfere with his, as everyone wants to win (at least in an ideal world). Secondly, he makes it clear in his video that he has a plan and that he’s going to stick to it, and concedes he might be set off if someone tries to tamper with his scheme. It’s always good to have some general strategy ideas and to know how this game is supposed to be played (that’s why David has the “What Survivors Should Have Learned” article). However, you can’t go in with an ironclad plan. You have to adapt to your surroundings and to the people who are also playing for a million dollars. If Matt doesn’t keep this in mind, he’ll rub a lot of people the wrong way and be cast aside at the earliest convenience. Still, he is self-aware enough to know that he’ll be considered a threat and he wants to work around that, so I’ll give him a fair chance for the time being.

Sarah: There are players who are ready to play the hand they're dealt, and there are players who are ready to play the game they want to play. Matt definitely falls into the latter camp, refusing to compare himself to past contestants because he wants to take Survivor game play to its inevitable next level. He doesn't specify what that is, but I wonder how flexible Matt is going to be. As a smart, athletic male in his thirties, he should be able to get to the merge. At that point, I rather suspect his carefully plotted web of intrigue will unravel on him, and he'll find himself one of the first jurors.

Ken: His bio contains one of my favorite quotes of the season to be: “If someone’s plan is to play like a past contestant they are probably both in-over-their-heads and in real trouble.” I couldn’t agree more, because no matter how much you try to play like a previous player, there’s a different dynamic with every game and cast. He does want to play a game he describes as bold, evolved and innovative, and hopes to take game play to the inevitable next level, as Sarah mentioned above. While the odds of doing just that are against him, he seems to know what he’s up against, unlike Coach, who came in and declared he was going to change the way the game was played. Don’t be surprised to see Matt around at the end.