RNO Roundtable: ‘Survivor: One World’ Pre-Show Predictions

Chris: This edition of Survivor doesn’t seem to have as many muscle-bound pretty boys as in years past, but I’d say that Matt fits that role. In this case, it’s totally okay, because that’s probably what his tribe is going to value early on – strength and athleticism. Then again, the less “pretty” types like Leif, Colton, and Jonas might just gang up on the Abercrombie models and toss them out of the game. You always have to give lawyers a little bit of credit for being smart and potentially cutthroat, and he makes it pretty clear that’s who he sees himself as being. We’ll see. I think he does well, but I’m not sure he’s a winner.

Jenn: Matt will make it about halfway, but he’ll just miss making the jury.

Jeffrey: Matt is likely to do well. He has many qualities I look for, including some maturity, the right mental outlook, a willingness to adapt, and some athletic ability. In another season, he might win it all. Jury duty.

Stinger James: I love lawyers on this show! So many of the elements you need to be successful on Survivor, lawyers do every day! I like that Matt has a definite “never surrender” attitude, and those abs are showing he’s quite fit. There could be some arrogance in him that will make him unpopular to some, but Matt is looking like my horse!

David: I feel like I have to root for Matt, because he’s a Cubs fan (even though he doesn’t live in Chicago). But beyond that, he seems to have a plan for everything. He doesn’t intend to let the other players know he’s a lawyer, so they don’t feel threatened by him. He doesn’t intend to let them know he has a serious girlfriend either, so he can flirt as a strategy. He doesn’t intend to stand out in challenges and will pull back if he sees he’s doing too well, so he doesn’t become a physical threat. It’s great to have these plans, but there are also some not-so-great parts of Matt – like Probst saying he will be seen as condescending, arrogant, and misogynistic. Yikes! But considering Matt declared himself the favorite to win, he’s definitely going to have to clamp down that ego. Still, I get a good feeling about Matt’s chances in the game.

Michael

William: Is it just me, or does Michael look like a buff version of Seth MacFarlane? It is just me? Okay then, moving on. Michael gets points for being a fan of the show and an actual applicant (shocking, I know). He also gets points for wanting to play as clean a game as possible. He loses points for saying he wants to take the show “back to its roots” by winning without backstabbing. Does he not realize that the original “Sole Survivor” was a man who had no scruples about backstabbing at the moment of truth? He also loses points for the naïveté of thinking that he himself won’t ever be backstabbed. He compounds this arrogance by telling us that he knows he’ll be able to talk his way out trouble if he’s ever a target. Yeah, once the group’s mind is set, they rarely change it. Just before he gets voted out, we’ll see a great scrambling sequence from him, but just like 99% of the others before him, it will be unsuccessful. He has the strength to at least make the jury, though he could go earlier if his plan to “get all the ladies on [his] side” backfires with his all-male tribe finding him untrustworthy.

Sarah: Michael wants to play an honorable game, but has been promoted as a villain, so that should be interesting. Self-awareness certainly doesn't appear to be his strong point, but I expect he's much more adaptable than some of the players, and that will probably get him further than anybody expects... He could even end up being a finals goat, although my guess would be he falls short of that.

Ken: What little I have to go on with Michael, I like. He seems to understand the importance of keeping your enemies close. I don’t know if he’s watched every single episode of the show, but it sure sounds like he has. If he follows that strategy, it could well take him to the end. How many times have we seen people shun those they couldn’t stand or weren’t aligned with? Like Matt, Michael could well be around at the end.

Chris: Another muscle man! I’ve picked a lot of guys on the male tribe to go far, so it’s time to start thinning the herd. Michael thinks that people believe he looks like an “ass”? That’s not good, because if that’s their first impression, that’s all they need to vote you off. I have to think Michael’s physicality to make him valuable early on, but I’m not convinced that he has the brains to play around the tricky strategic spots. If the weaker members of the tribe decide to pick off one of the stronger ones, I suspect it might be Michael they target.

Jenn: He’ll get to hang out at Ponderosa and serve on the jury.

Jeffrey: Michael is a mess of contradictions, such as being a natural leader who can step aside, and a people person who doesn't think he can be backstabbed. Guess what? He can be. Out before the jury.

Stinger James: I think so much can be learned by the pet peeves question! He’s annoyed by “annoying eaters,” “people who grunt when working out,” and those who “need a cigarette.” Not sensing much compassion for people who are different from him! And he will very likely bump into those personalities on the island! While it’s sweet that he wants to do the show for his mom, Michael will burn himself out in the social game.

David: Ah, Michael, the already-designated villain of the season. Of course, just because he’s a villain doesn’t mean he’ll stick around a long time – but I’m betting he gets on the guys’ good side early. At some point, the others may figure out what he’s really like, but by then they just might want to take him to the end as jury fodder!

Monica

William: Did you know Monica is married to an ex-NFL player? If you didn’t, then watch her video and read her bio, because she’ll tell you about 97 times. Seriously, half of her content is about her husband and not herself. She actually lists, “Ex-NFL Player’s Wife” as her occupation. Most of us would just say “Unemployed.” She clearly wants to play the role of tribe mom, but admits that she hates people who are lazy and unappreciative. There are two big problems with that line of thinking. One, she puts way too much stock in camp work ethic as a means to advance in this game. Two, if she starts bitching at the others to pick up the slack, it’ll be a lot easier to shut her up by voting her out rather than pitching in with chores. Depending on how early she clashes with the other personalities on the beach, she could go far or be the first one voted out. An interesting twist in her tribe mom dynamic is the fact that both tribes will share the beach. If the men are the lazy ones, the women may want to keep Monica around just to annoy the men and potentially throw them off their game, even if she’s a liability to them in terms of strategy and challenges. I’ll be intrigued to see what, if anything, she does in this game, but I’ll be furious if she wins, as she brings absolutely nothing to the table in terms of strategy.

Sarah: I'm guessing the glamorous footballer's wife will end up as the leader of Salani. She'll attract the younger girls but seems hardworking enough to earn the older players' respect too... the only person I see her butting heads with is the only woman older than her, Nina. What she doesn't come across as is Survivor-savvy. I could see her bringing a solid alliance to the merge, only to be blindsided at the end-game.

Ken: She compares herself to Tina from the Outback, and in a tribe of all women, playing the nurturing mom card might be the right thing to do. As one of the older women, she might be left out of any initial alliances, but if she survives until a tribal switch, she could be around a bit longer., and then get ousted near the end because no one wants to go against her.

Chris: As a University of Kentucky fan, whose football team is routinely brutalized by the Florida Gators – the school of Monica and her NFL star husband Brad Culpepper – I want to root against Monica. Unfortunately, I think she’s here for a while. She seems very Type-A, and that could mean that she stands the risk of turning off her tribemates, but I think that in this case, she’ll prove the dominant personality over the younger girls, who may even see her as a maternal figure. Monica is using to juggling a lot of tasks, and keeping her finger on pulse of every individual in the tribe sounds like a skill she might actually have. Monica is getting to the merge, and she might reach the finals.

Jenn: Monica will be among the Survivors out before the jury phase.

Jeffrey: Monica is poised to do well. She has some maturity, along with some athletic and diplomatic skills. She should be able to fit in with a core group and motive a group to work towards goals. Naturally, this goal will be to make herself the winner. My pick to win.

Stinger James: Monica is a woman with something to prove. She gave up her own ambitions to be a football player’s wife and soccer mom. Unintentionally highlighting the sadness of that, she lists her husband as her inspiration and rattled off his long list of accomplishments. When it came to answering questions about herself, she had so little to say! The wife of a former football player and now lawyer? Money is not an issue. Monica is there for self-discovery, and I hope she finds it. But she will not find herself on the jury, nor will she find a million dollars.

David: Most of my cohorts have suggested that Monica may well become the de facto leader of the ladies’ tribe due to her social and mom-like skills. I’m thinking there may be another factor at play as well – her high level of fitness. If she were just an older woman, she could get quickly voted out. But her tribemates might well want to keep her around to help in challenges too! That bodes well for her early on, but I don’t see her making it too deep into the jury.

Nina

William: Nina sounds like an absolute hoot. Her hero is her mom, who “was a feminist before it was acceptable.” Wait, it’s acceptable now? I look forward to your letters (borrowing another Craig Ferguson bit). Also, her mom encouraged her to take up “sports over cheerleading.” I can’t wait to see the fireworks if this woman tells the other girls that cheerleading isn’t a sport, seeing as how half of them did it in high school and college. I’ll applaud her for speaking the truth, but it won’t go over well. As far as the game goes, Nina’s got a lot counting against her. She’s the oldest woman, which automatically makes her a target. She’s physically fit, being a former cop, but that doesn’t always bode well. Back in Samoa, Betsy was a cop and she was the second person voted out. She doesn’t talk about the game at all, instead getting excited for the challenge of the competition. Competitive spirit is admirable, but this show does not begin and end with challenges. Nina has no strategy to speak of, and she notes that while there is only one winner, the game begins as a team endeavor. That sort of attitude, again while admirable in the real world, is the perfect excuse to vote her off. Her tribemates could easily decide to send her packing, justifying it by saying it’s “for the good of the tribe.” Even if she makes the merge, her “team first” attitude translates as her not making any moves for herself. She’d be a loyal ally, but she’d get dragged to the end rather than earning her spot through game acumen, which means she’s all but certain not to win. I do hope she sticks around for at least a few episodes, though, as she’s one of the more intriguing characters at first glance.