RNO Roundtable: ‘Survivor: One World’ Pre-Show Predictions

Sarah: Nina's tough and determined, so might well be able to overcome the physical obstacles that her age presents, but I'm not so sure about the social ones. I like her, but there's nobody on the tribe that I can see her bonding with, and that makes me think she'll be a pre-jury boot.

Ken: She wants to prove a fifty-something woman can compete, but she’ll already have a target on her back as the oldest woman, so she might not get the chance due to preconceived notions. Like Monica, if she survives until a tribal switch, she could last a while, as the others won’t see her as a threat. But that’s unlikely, and unfortunate, because it might be good for the show if she stuck around awhile.

Chris: Any former SWAT team member isn’t going to be intimidated by a thing out in the wild … or that’s the assumption, anyway. Like Monica, she’s very Type-A, and they can either work together or form a power struggle – and if it’s the latter, I think Monica’s “mother“ potential for the younger women could win out. Age shouldn’t be a factor for either woman in terms of physical acumen, since both Monica and Nina seem to be in great shape. I’m just not convinced that Nina is quite as well-prepared to play the social game, and I think there’s room for only one of these women on the island long-term.

Jenn: Nina will be the last woman standing, but she won’t make it to the finals. It’s jury duty for her.

Jeffrey: Nina has too high an age to last too long in the game. She may last longer than I think, but only because I think the women are going to take an early lead in the game. However, eventually her tribe will go to Tribal Council, and I think she's first out among them.

Stinger James: Some female contestants can represent themselves in challenges as being as formidable as a guy. Nina strikes me this way. She’s been a college athlete and a cop! In a foot race, not many bad guys were going to get away from her! In a tribe, Nina is going to be in the challenges. She’ll kick the butts of any other woman on the show. All Nina has to do is make some friendships, keep an ear out for the right alliance, and presto! She’s on the jury.

David: My first inclination was to mark Nina as an early vote-out due to her age. But my fellow writers have pointed out so many positives about her physical abilities that I find myself second-guessing. Then I go back to what Probst said about her needing to make alliances in a hurry or else… and I’m third-guessing. In the end, I seem to be coming down on the side that she will not have the necessary social skills to bond with the younger women, who will send her packing early.

Sabrina

William: Sabrina knows her biggest asset and liability is her mouth, but she vows to keep herself in check and not be the “angry black woman.” I’ll believe it when I see it. It’s a sad stereotype that the casting department loves to perpetuate. Think about it. Since Cirie’s first two seasons, where she established herself as one of the greatest players of all time, only three black women have even made the jury, and of those three, only Taj wasn’t typecast as “angry/crazy black woman” (that was Candace). The other two are Reality TV Hall of Shame inductees (Crystal Cox for doping in the Olympics, and NaOnka for quitting/being a horrible person and again for her finale/reunion behavior). This typecast is meant to cause drama at camp and make for good TV, but success for the actual player is the exception, not the rule. Sabrina, unfortunately, has that stereotype working against her. Even if it’s not accurate, that will be the prejudice most players will have coming into the game. If she can overcome it and prove she’s sane, she has the potential to go fairly far. If she doesn’t, she’s toast. Even if she does come off with her head screwed on properly, the fact that she’s a germophobe out in the wilderness will likely do her in early.

Sarah: Sabrina claims that she is not the Angry Black Woman. I really hope she's right! I can't make up my mind about Sabrina. As with Christina, I don't see where she'll fit into the tribe, but unlike Christina, I think Sabrina will be able to carve out her own social niche. What I'm less sure about is whether she'll take the time to sit back and analyze whether that niche is in a safe position. I'll hedge my bets and say she makes jury.

Ken: She’s an oddity for Survivor: An African-American woman with a normal-sounding name. On one hand, she describes herself as blunt, which could be a one-way ticket to Loser Lodge. But she also says she can stroke egos and get people to do what she wants, and then go for the kill when they least expect it. Whether that’s true or not, at least she understands the importance of pretending to be nice. Something tells me she’ll be able to deal with any cultural barriers, and while she may or may not be around at the end, don’t be surprised to see her on the jury.

Chris: Sabrina is the second profile thus far to list “kids on leashes” as a pet peeve (Kat’s was the other). Really? That’s your big pet peeve? Frankly, I don’t even know where they’re seeing all these kids on leashes – not where I live, that’s for sure – but to be honest, it sounds like a pretty good idea to me. Most of the kids I see run around all over the place tearing up jack. See, now I’m turned off to Sabrina, but it may not matter, since I’ve already picked enough women to get the boot early. She’s in good shape and seems to have some decent social skills, but she does admit her mouth can get her in trouble and she’s a “germaphobe,” so I’m still on the fence here. I can’t see her doing any better than barely making the jury.

Jenn: Sabrina will be out before the jury.

Jeffrey: Sabrina is going to be known as the accidental Survivor, as the reason she's on the show is that she shares a name with a person who applied. The producers liked this one better. I doubt she'll have what it takes to play well. Out before the jury.

Stinger James: She admires Sandra? Sorry, Sabrina, you lost a lot of points on that one! Sabrina thinks she’s persuasive, but the key to the game is to not find yourself trying to persuade people! Toss a thought out there, see if it sticks. Otherwise, agree, nod, softly object if necessary, but don’t make waves until the jury. Sabrina seems likely to overplay. Bad sign.

David: As has been mentioned, Sabrina is on Survivor not by design, but by accident. I suspect that means she is not really a big enough fan to truly understand how to play the game – especially since she can be overly opinionated and vocal. She’ll make it for a little while, but not long enough.

Troy

William: Wow, this man is out there! First of all, “Troyzan”? Seriously? Greg’s Tarzan obsession was bad enough, but this guy actually raised monkeys! I won’t harp on the guy too much, as he’s a lifelong fan of the show so I have to root for him a little bit. He’s definitely the designated “crazy guy” this season, as his interview is a combination of Phillip’s spaced-out nature, Coach’s grandiosity, and Jimmy Johnson’s love of apes. He’ll either entertain his entire tribe or annoy the hell out of them like Jimmy Tarantino. He says he has some ideas in his head for what he wants to do, as he’s been planning for this show for its entire 11-year run. I have a feeling those ideas will only make sense in his own head. He’ll be a wild card. He could either be the first man cut due to his age (only Greg is older), or he could be so loveably insane that a smarter player like Colton or Jonas will want to have him as an ally to drag to the end as jury fodder. Strap yourselves in when this guy’s on camera, that’s all I can say.

Sarah: Our second Coach-a-like, although he's much happier thinking of himself as unique. I'm facepalming already, but I expect the rest of his tribe will peg him as easily fooled, set him up as a figurehead leader, and casually get rid of him at the jury stage... much like Coach's first time through. I kind of hope that he's annoying enough to be the first one voted off, though.

Ken: Troy thinks being on the show is his destiny, and that the game was made for him. Yet in his bio he mentions nothing about plotting or scheming. Instead it appears he intends to rely on outdoors skills and physical ability. That formula worked for Tom Weston, at least the latter part of it. But for being such a fan of the show, Troy doesn’t seem to realize that the very things he cites could be his undoing after the merge. And in a tribe of young, fit males half his age, those things may not carry him too far. Jury, if that.

Chris: My first reaction? “No. Just… no.” Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe managing the game of Survivor is like raising a dozen monkeys. But… no. Then I realize that Jeff Probst is going to love this guy, and the people Jeff loves having on the show always seem to stick around for a while, so… Troy may be here for the long haul. Eek.

Jenn: Troy will be able to make it all the way to the finals, but he won’t be the one taking home the million dollars.

Jeffrey Troy doesn't look his age, and that is a plus as I think he'll be an asset to his tribe. However, the game is eventually going to catch up with him. He'll be on the jury.

Stinger James: Troy has an attachment to nature unlike any other contestant. That’s going to play huge for him! He’s going to become his tribe’s leader, which is another set of pitfalls to overcome, but he’s going to prove to be too crucial to his tribe’s survival to ever vote him off. Legitimately. Not like, say, Coach or Rob Mariano, who only made their tribes think they need them. I definitely like Troy’s chances in this game. Jury? For sure. Winner? Hmm.

David: Troy is a big fan of Survivor and claims to know the game. But from some of his comments, I have to wonder. For example, he’s 50 but says he’s open to a relationship with the women. Um, no. His choice of strategy also worries me. Maybe he’ll surprise me, but…

Who will not make the jury?

William: Right now it doesn’t look good for many of the women, as several seem to bring nothing to the game. However, a deficit at the merge does not mean a woman won’t win (see: Morasca, Jenna). Also, with Colton as the identified villain of the season, I have to assume that people he’d target will meet an early fate. My pre-jury bootees are Alicia, Christina, Greg, Jay, Kim, Kourtney, Nina, and Sabrina.

Sarah: Alicia, Christina, Colton, Greg, Jay, Kat, Leif, and Nina.

Ken: Chelsea, Greg, Jonas, Kat, Kourtney, Leif, Nina, Troy.

Chris: Alicia, Chelsea, Greg, Kourtney, Leif, Michael, Nina, Sabrina.

Jenn: Alicia, Christina, Colton, Greg, Kat, Matt, Monica, and Sabrina.

Jeffrey: Christina, Greg, Colton, Jonas, Kat, Michael, Nina, Sabrina.

Stinger James: Alicia, Christina, Colton, Jonas, Kim, Michael, Monica, Sabrina.

David: Alicia, Christina, Colton, Greg, Jonas, Kourtney, Nina, and Troy.

Who will make the final two (three)?

William: Colton and Troy, with Kat as the third.

Sarah: Jonas, Kim, (Kourtney).

Ken: Michael, Christina, (Matt).

Chris: Bill, Monica, (Jonas).

Jenn: Jonas and Troy, with Leif an alternate third.

Jeffrey: Monica, Kim, (Alicia).

Stinger James: Troy, Matt, (Jay).

David: I’m looking at an all-male final three of Bill, Matt, and Michael.

Who will win it all?

William: The villain hasn’t won in a while, and I think it’s time for a change. I’m going with Colton, though to be fair, this is the least confident I’ve been in my picks in a long time.

Sarah: This is based on the type of player that I want him to be, rather than any hard evidence he is that type of player, but... Jonas!

Ken: Michael will win a final two handily over Christina, who’ll get two votes at the most. If there’s a final three, it will be close, but Michael will barely edge out Matt for the win.

Chris: Bill.

Jenn: Jonas. Make me proud, buddy.

Jeffrey: Monica.

Stinger James: Troy.

David: I’m going with my gut on this one – and I think it will be Bill.

Conclusions

So there we have it! It’s quite a wide range of picks, with only Jonas and Bill scoring two votes to win (one of the Jonas votes being Jenn’s computer!). Indeed, even the final three picks are pretty varied. Looking at the contestants we expect to leave early, though, there are some names that came up frequently, like Alicia, Christina, Colton, Nina, and Sabrina.

Each week, Ken will give us an update as to how our predictions are going and which RNO writer is in the lead. So be sure to check back and root us on as we root on the players we’ve picked to win it all!

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