Survivor: One World – Who Will Go in Episode 9?

So let’s get down to business and determine which man (or man sympathizer) will be joining Mike and Jonas at Ponderosa this week. We begin, as always, with the official CBS press release.

Temptation is sweet for ravenous tribe members vying for individual immunity, and rumors of a hidden immunity idol send Tikiano into a tailspin as they head into Tribal Council.

The “Cheat Tweet” this week slightly alters the wording of the second half of the press release, so I think it’s worth transcribing. As always, the text is corrected to compensate for Twitter-necessitated shorthand.

It gets complicated as rumors of the hidden immunity idol send Tikiano into a tailspin.

Moving to the videos, it becomes clear that the men are scrambling at this point. In the end-of-episode (EOE) preview, host Jeff Probst states the obvious, telling us the women are in control. In fact, it’s so obvious that even Tarzan realizes that the women will band together to take them all out.

As Troyzan hints that something major is about to happen, Probst interjects to say that the men are going to fight back. Jay tells Kim (well, at least it looks like Kim; the shot is over the woman’s shoulder and it looks like her hair) that the next four votes will come from “your side,” implying that he has a way to turn the tables so much that women will go out in four consecutive votes. I’ll believe it when I see it.

The scramble is on as Troy asks Christina who she’s voting for, and Jay tells Kat that they need her to move forward. I can’t tell by his inflection if he means that he and Troy require Kat’s help so that they can move forward as a group, or if he’s just blowing smoke up her bum and saying that everyone needs for her specifically to advance in the game. The clip ends with sound bites from Troy and Jay. Troy thinks they’re going to be able to pull a “switcheroo,” while Jay promises that some blindsides will be coming.

The commercial promo answers the first part of the press release, as this week’s immunity challenge is the classic temptation endurance challenge. Players will hold one hand over their head as they are cuffed to a very sensitive string holding up a bucket of colored water. The slightest move will tip the bucket, eliminating that player. Along the way, Probst will be offering food (we see cookies and milk as well as fried chicken) to anyone willing to drop out and give up immunity.

During the footage, we get a wide shot of the challenge in progress. There are seven people still standing. From what I can tell, those people are (from left to right) Leif, Troy, Chelsea, Kim, Alicia, Kat, and Jay. This means that by this point, Tarzan, Christina, and Sabrina have already checked out. Right before that shot, we get a close-up of Kat volunteering to step down. Another shot has Jay threatening to vote out someone if they take the food, followed by a quick clip of Christina being eliminated (you can tell it’s her because of the black bikini she always wears, even though they don’t show her face).

The narrator then switches gears, saying that it’s time to go big or go home. We are treated to the same clips of Tarzan realizing the obvious and Jay pleading to Kat that we got in the EOE preview. The next shot is of Kim interviewing that she’s ready to “draw the line” and turn quickly on the guys (presumably Jay and Troy, as she couldn’t care less about Leif and Tarzan at this point). This is followed by an interview with Chelsea where she says she’s not comfortable with taking out all the guys yet. The clip ends with a sarcastic “Please” from Alicia and Sabrina saying that you have to “put on your big girl panties and make a big girl decision.”

So that’s what we have to work with this week. We already know three people who won’t have immunity, and apart from maybe Sabrina, none of them are surprises. We also know that with the women in the dominant position, this is really the last chance the men have to turn the tables. If they can’t get rid of a woman this week (preferably without having to play Troy’s idol), then they’re all sitting ducks. Troy would still last the longest by virtue of his idol, but even then he’d either have to play it and/or win every immunity challenge once the idols expire.

It appears that the prime flip targets for the men will be Christina and Kat, as they are considered the weakest of the women, and there have been attempts to get rid of them in the past. Essentially, the four remaining men will attempt to convince them that they’re at best fifth and sixth once all the men are gone, but with the men (particularly Jay and Troy), they’d likely be elevated above Leif or Tarzan.

From what I can gather in the text, Troy will use his idol as a means to consolidate power, using it as a bargaining chip to try to recruit Kat and Christina. There will be at least the initial hint of success, as there are clips of Jay bragging about some blindsides coming (famous last words?), and even promising Kim that the next four votes would be women. If he truly feels he’s got the numbers thanks to Christina and Kat, that would imply the next four would be Alicia, Kim, Chelsea, and Sabrina in some order.

However, there are a couple of things to bear in mind. One, Kat has shown nothing but loyalty to the women. They may have been upset with her early, and even considered voting her out in favor of Nina, but that was a long time ago. Two, Kim has an idol of her own. If Troy can use his to try to gain votes, Kim can do the same thing. She can also go one step further than Troy, and use her idol to threaten the likes of Christina and Kat, telling them that she’ll use her idol to take them out instead of one of the guys, since they can safely vote out a woman and still maintain numbers.