Survivor: One World – Who Will Go in Episode 9?

There will apparently be some dissent amongst the female ranks in the form of Chelsea, but I sort of discount it. She wanted Tarzan out two weeks ago, and again last week, but in the end she admitted the wisdom of keeping a non-threat around and did what she was told. She may have misgivings about taking out all the guys this week, but a few gentle nudges from Kim and Sabrina will bring her back into line.

It really all comes down to Kat and Christina. Troy and Jay will attempt to use Troy’s idol to lure them over, and if the text is to be believed, it will be in the scramble leading up to Tribal Council.

However, I really don’t see it working out. The men had two chances to get Christina over to their side and they blew it. At the merge, she would have flipped to them to save Jonas, but the men were feuding amongst themselves and couldn’t come together as a group. Last week, rather than trying to recruit her, they targeted her. She’s smart enough to remember these things, so I doubt she’ll be all that eager to switch things up at this stage, especially since it represents a lateral movement in position. She’s sixth with the women, and she’d have to assume she’d be sixth with the men plus her and Kat.

If the men do somehow recruit Kat and Christina, then look for either Chelsea or Alicia to be their prime target. Chelsea is the biggest physical threat on the women’s side (along with Kim), and Alicia could be used as fodder to further solidify Christina on their side.

More than likely, however, the men will fail, and the PaDONGing will continue. If so, the safe pick is Leif, as he’s former Manono and more of a threat than Tarzan (though that’s not saying much). If the ladies want to pull a power move, they’ll go for Jay. The clips of him bragging in the EOE preview just reek of ironic foreshadowing, so I have to assume he’s in danger if he doesn’t win immunity.

The third option is for the majority women to target either Kat or Christina for being noncommittal. This happened in each of the last two gender wars seasons. In Amazon, right after Rob Cesternino betrayed Heidi and Jenna, he went right back to them to vote out Christy, because she was too lackadaisical and wouldn’t agree on a voting target. In the second episode of Vanuatu, the disparate alliances on the women’s tribe decided to forego their original targets and instead vote out Dolly, since she wouldn’t pick a side before Tribal Council.

The same could happen here. If Christina appears willing to go to the men, or if Kat isn’t clearly on the women’s side, the majority women (Alicia, Kim, Chelsea, and Sabrina) could easily decide to dispatch one of them and give the men a stay of execution. They’d still have the numbers advantage; the men would readily agree to vote out any woman they’d be willing to sacrifice; and in doing so, it would take away one of the men’s options for a flip later on.

No matter what the outcome, I don’t believe for a second that Kim’s position will be upset one iota. She’s already won this game. We just have to wait six more weeks for it to become official.

So that’s where we stand. If the men continue to fall, look for either Leif to go in a procedural vote or for Jay to go via blindside. Christina and Kat are the next likely candidates, in case the majority women decide to trim some wishy-washy fat. On the off chance that the men’s power play succeeds, then either Alicia or Chelsea will go, but that’s a long shot.

If I had to pick one of these three outcomes, it would be the first. There’s a reason why I transcribed the “Cheat Tweet” this week, and that’s because of word choice. While the press release chose to be vague about the possible chaos caused by Troy’s idol, the tweet actually used the words, “It gets complicated.”

To me, complicated implies that there will be an agreed upon target for the women, but the threat of idol blowback will make accomplishing the goal slightly more difficult, causing them to plan for contingencies (perhaps a split vote of some kind). In the end, the result will be the same, only it will be just a tad trickier to pull off. If I’m right about that, then it means a man is still going, even if it’s not as cut and dry as they thought after the immunity challenge ends.

There, I named six targets out of 10 remaining players. Can I get one right for once?

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If Bill Hammon ever gets on Survivor, he promises not to just be picked off. If he’s going out, he’s going out kicking and screaming. You can reach him at loismustdie1982@yahoo.com or follow him at twitter.com/WilliamJHammon. You can also subscribe to his podcast on iTunes or at realityrant.podomatic.com.

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