Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 4: Casualties and Coalitions

Few participants among the over 230 who have played Survivor so richly deserved to be voted off the show for their strategic bungling as did Mikey B. There’s nothing like having the knife in your hand, your worst enemy’s throat bare and unprotected, and then slicing thoroughly and enthusiastically across your own throat as did Mikey B.

Surely he had the sense to count numbers. He had seen how Joel had used Alexis, Natalie, and Erik to send out his closest ally Mary. He knew the trio of Chet, Tracy, and Kathy were wretched. If he could just get Jason to go along with him, he had the majority with the help of the wretched.

Further, he fully realized Joel was his enemy and he must have known Joel returned the favor; why else take out Mary? Yet he still wanted to dance with the devil in the pale moonlight because of some perception that the tribe would be stronger with his enemy still in and a weaker guy he could have skillfully used as an ally out.

The lesson cannot be stronger: it’s not so important how good somebody is in challenges nor how much can be provided by that person, it’s through your entreaties how loyally he will back you that gets you further in the game. And you are to cooperate with these people as resources exactly to put yourself in situations where when you have the knife at the throat of your worst enemy…

Of course, Mikey B. almost got saved by the plodding Joel. He was all ready to join Mikey B. in taking out Chet. As soon as Mikey B. indicated Chet was his target (and especially upon hearing the inane chatter about past differences and working together), Joel immediately should have realized there was no wretched-of-the-earth coalition in the offing and thereby Mikey B. was ripe for sending home. Yet it took Tracy’s clever intervention to put him onto that.

And just as he had misfired on not getting rid of Mikey B. almost a week earlier, Joel ham-handedly saw this eviction through as well. Instead of informing the coalition he had put together for Mary’s ouster to take out Mikey B., he apparently relied only on the impressionable Erik and hung out Alexis and Natalie to dry, making him seem erratic and conniving. It immediately sends him to the top of the list for the Fans to be booted off at the merge as soon as he is expendable. It also increases the strength of the wretched through the disunity sown. Suddenly, they just need one more ally to protect themselves, and Joel has managed to create some malcontents for them to exploit.

Among the Favorites, Jonathan dug himself into a deeper hole with his whining while Ozzy displayed outstanding cunning in finding the real and the leaving a fake immunity idol. This could really change the balance of power if he could carry it to five with his original coalition of Amanda, Parvati, James, and Cirie.

Or utilizing it just to get there in the first place. It appears a swap is coming, and he may need it sooner if he gets separated from too much of his coalition. The swap could be pretty negative for his original coalition as some emphasis will be placed upon splitting his pairing with Amanda, if he doesn’t have enough backup on the newly constituted tribe. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to know of all the strategic ramifications of the swap until we know exactly how it shakes out, but suffice it to say the top targets would be the distaff members of Ozzy’s present coalition not named Cirie so the game’s direction may depend greatly on how people are split up. If four of the five make it through, they should be able to get those four to the merge.

The only other solid coalition at this point seems to be the wretched. They could become a major force if they stay intact in the swap with Tracy the apparent brains behind the group. While this situation is murky, one thing came through quite clearly in this episode, courtesy of Mikey B.: you might be a tremendous fan of the game, but by no means does it make you prepared to do the strategic thinking to win it.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent Survivor: Micronesia articles on RealityNewsOnline:

When not watching for strategic elements in Survivor, Jeffrey D. Sadow is trying to teach about strategies inherent in international relations, diplomacy, governance, political campaigns, and lots of other neat stuff as an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University Shreveport.

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