UK Survivor 2: Now What?

So North and South Island tribe are no more. The eight remaining members have formed Columbus tribe and in terms of potential unpredictability, the balance could not have worked out better. Both of the former tribes are equal numerically at merger, unlike last year when Ular outnumbered Helang and immediately started to pick the latter’s members off (until it came to Charlotte’s turn, when the Ular members started to turn on themselves and she benefited from what was to lead to an ultimately winning reprieve). This time around, things may not be so obvious. So what is likely to happen now?

Well although both tribes ended up four-strong at merger, their emerged structure could not be more different. North Island were a good ol’ fashioned patriarchy, with Alastair as the good ol’ fashioned Alpha Male. Dave is Robin to Alastair’s Batman (apart from being twice Alastair’s age) and the two women, Drew and Helen, have been staying well in the background, with hardly a word from either (although Drew has proved herself very strong in the physical challenges). Both have not really had to do a great deal to justify their existence so far, with the two voted out of North tribe being the volunteer (Meeta) and the real outsider (Tayfun), but there is little to suggest so far that they will now proactively court alliances, particularly as they have already expressed hostility towards both of the South Island women.

South Island meanwhile had no natural leader, but were instead dominated by the ‘professional alliance’ of John, Jonny, and Susannah, brought together by an appreciation of classical music and fine wine. This was initially countered by the Essex posse of Sarah and Lee, but once Sarah had jumped ship, Lee was picked off after Susannah backtracked on her ambiguous offer of an alliance. The sixth member, Bridget, had proved her usefulness in practical skills, but was still the South tribe outsider; an assumption which North tribe also appear to share. Her future will depend very much on how quickly any members of the merged tribe break ranks and attempt to gang up on someone who had been one of their own; otherwise she is the easiest target for the next eviction (immunity permitting) despite her superior aptitude towards island life.

Who else is in danger? Well the different ways in which the separate tribes have functioned up to now is set to create a clash of cultures, which could rebound on Alastair in particular. A fundamental Survivor rule is that the obvious early tribal leader soon becomes a perceived threat and, despite John already coming out as an Alpha fan, his domineering role may count against him. It would only take Dave to decide that allying with the two Js and Susannah might prove a more secure proposition to place Alastair’s position in jeopardy, regardless of whether ‘the harum’ stayed loyal.

The other near-inevitability is the eventual collapse of the ‘professional alliance’, although I would not expect this to happen until the latter stages. Of the three, John is the most in danger. Susannah has already proven herself to be the most devious of the tribe, although admittedly on thin evidence so far as the real subterfuge is still to begin. Jonny is keeping his intentions very closely guarded and I would expect John, who is the most straightforward of the bunch, to be the one to be betrayed (if his infected foot doesn’t finish him off first).

So who does that leave in the final four? Well I would predict Susannah and Jonny as the ‘players’, Dave, who is amiable yet canny enough to last the course, and one of Drew or Helen (most likely Drew, who is likely to win a few immunities) as the ‘stalking horse’ that creeps invisibly into the final stages while other more obvious threats are eliminated. By that time, I would predict two likely outcomes; either a late switch of allegiance by Susannah to take the two women into the final, as last year or, more likely, Susannah’s deviousness is rumbled and she is eliminated, leaving Dave and Jonny as the final two. If that is the case, the universal rule of British reality TV comes into play: never bet against the Celt. Jonny to win.

Although at this stage, last year, I backed James and certainly did not envisage either of Charlotte or Jackie in the final two, so what do I know?

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