Point/Counterpoint with Susan and Brian – Can Kathy Win?

Point: Kathy is strong enough to pull out the necessary win.

Counterpoint: Kathy is screwed no matter what…

Susan: First of all I would like to say for the record I am a Kathy fan.

Brian: As am I.

Susan: I want Kathy to win.

Brian: As do I.

Susan: So this is the hardest point counterpoint I have ever done.

Brian: Whiner.

Susan: The views that I am presenting are – well, not what I feel in my heart. In my heart I want Kathy to win. But fortunately I have a master strategist, Jeffrey Clinard, to advise me how to present the facts, and just the facts, ma’am. I can do this, and do this as brilliantly as my loyal readers are expecting.

Brian: What the heck? This is a 2-on-1 WWF (excuse me WWE) wrestling match and I am the Rock (check my blog, I tested out as The Rock).

Susan: And btw, Brian, yes you may live in one of the boroughs of Manhattan, but I was born there. I spent the first few months of my life there, and was adopted there. So neener!

Brian: Neener schmeener. I spent the few months of my life in a crib. But being born in South Carolina, I have social grace and skill that allows me to smile while I stab people in the back.

Susan: And who, pray tell, spent summers with Grandma and Grandpa in Sheepshead Bay and Coney Island?

Brian: I spent them at Myrtle Beach and Rock Hill, South Carolina, so that wouldn’t be me. At least it wasn’t Joisey.

Susan: Don’t dis me because I live in Joisey now.

Brian: Well I don’t have to dis you about it. There are plenty of other people who are willing to do it for me.

Susan: Believe me, if I could, I would live in Manhattan. It is my most favorite city in the world, with London, England, coming in a close second. And I love it so much. Besides, who is taking you to the reunion special? Never bite the hand that feeds you.

Brian: I would never dream of biting Danny’s hand. Then again, he hasn’t fed me anything. Yet.

Susan: That said, here is the scenario. We both agree that Kathy was in the prime position when there were five survivors left. She had the prime post.

Brian: She was the epicenter of power for one brief fleeting moment. And then she screwed up.

Susan: There were two cliques, or alliances, The Pappy and Sweet Pea alliance and the Vee/Sean alliance. Or if you want to put it succinctly, the Maaramu 2 and the Rotu 2. Even Jeffy P acknowledged that it was Kathy’s night and she did not need the immunity necklace she had around her neck.

Brian: Yeah, and I am really glad she didn’t give up immunity because it would have meant that I would have had to pay $5 to your charity as agreed upon in a previous point counterpoint. Just wait. We have two more tribal councils to go through.

Susan: Now, no one knows how it is going to play out, which makes it the most interesting Survivor ever. At least the most interesting Survivor in the States.

Brian: Markie B does. And so does Rosie O’Donnell if you believe her.

Susan: Immunity is crucial.

Brian: Susan, you ignorant writer, immunity is always crucial. My God, have I not told you that crack is not a breakfast food.

Susan: I will give you this, Kathy has won immunity more times than any other remaining player. The odds are good she will do so again.

Brian: Well Paschal has taken two reward challenges and both of his were far more physical than anything Kathy has done. So what challenges are remaining since they haven’t had an original thought since… well since Survivor 1?

Susan: We can assume that one of the challenges will be “Fallen Comrades” one.

Brian: Yeah. That’s traditional.

Susan: Another one will be the stand up forever in the hot sun holding a tiki or something of that ilk. She could do it.

Brian: Yeah, she’s very determined so I can see it happening.

Susan: On the other hand, the other survivor that is still very strong that is left is Vee.

Brian: Praise Jesus for the drama.

Susan: Pappy looks like he is just exhausted.

Brian: Yeah, but he can still pull out a win. He lugged a forty pound rock underwater, which was rather physical.

Susan: Neleh is a wild card. The youngest member of Survivor ever wants to win so badly she can taste it.

Brian: I bet it tastes like chicken.

Susan: But they all do at this point. Neleh was the catalyst for getting rid of the Rotu Alliance. I wouldn’t write her off just yet.

Brian: I would. I think she is faltering. Just like in that last immunity challenge when she was squealing about a win that she didn’t have. She just plays too much with her heart and she’s not using her mind enough.

Susan: All the players left, the ones who are probably the smartest in regards to the game, are left. They all know what to expect. Vee knew to hitch her wagon to the Rotuians when the switch came. She knew Rob M, the Robfather, was going to be used against her. So she was clever to do that.

Brian: Yeah but that was for survival. Sean and Rob weren’t really helping out with their antics. She had to separate herself from them if she even wanted a chance. Sadly, had the Rotu-4 not gotten too cocky and sure in their positions, they would have been picked off one by one.

Susan: So can Kathy pull a win out? I hope so. But the odds are against her. And, like I said, in my heart, I hope she can. But let’s play the practical angle. She’s not a sure thing. At this point, dear Kathy is an underdog. And it all comes down to the jury vote.

Brian: I agree she’s an underdog, but that’s where she thrives. When Rob told her that she was marked as the first to go she pulled out a win to get immunity. With the at least five members of the original Rotu (six if both Neleh and Paschal go) in the jury, there is a good chance that Rotu lines will remain in tact.

Susan: This has been discussed over and over again by better strategists than I, but Kathy’s win has everything to do with who goes to the final two with her. At this point, this is going on through the various players mind.

Brian: Susan, mistress of the obvious.

Susan: In Paschal’s mind, it is not booty dancing.

Brian: Well, I would hope not. I wouldn’t want to see him booty dancing.

Susan: His primary objective is to win, and secondary is to take Neleh to the final two. Kathy is his biggest threat to this. So it would behoove Paschal to eliminate Kathy first, go to the final three with him and Neleh and Vee. Neleh is a mirror to Paschal on this, vote off Kathy, go to the final three with Vee and Pappy. In both Paschal’s and Neleh’s case, even if they can’t go in the final three with each other and end up taking Vee, they still will probably get jury points over Vee, since most of the jury is made up of their old tribe members. On the other hand, they may not. But a final two of either Pappy and Kathy or Neleh and Kathy would probably give Kathy her win.

Brian: See, I think Kathy is going to have no choice but to align with Vee in the next round whether or not she wins immunity. That way she can force a tie between her and Vee and Neleh and Paschal and let it ride from there. Kathy was screwed no matter who she sided with. She has a lot of work ahead of her regardless. In fact, I think she’s safer than Vee should Pappy or Neleh win immunity. Why would they give it up? Kathy is in their graces should she not win immunity and to a certain extent she can argue that they “owe” her for keeping them in the game. Especially Neleh. Now who have we forgotten? Oh yeah, Vee…

Susan: Vee’s position is a bit more complex. She needs to make the final two and leave it up to fate at that point. Vee’s biggest threat is the Pappy/Sweet Pea alliance. She needs to sever that immediately. Go into the final three with herself, Kathy, and one of the two remaining players. She would and should go into an agreement with Kathy to make sure the next person on the jury is either Pappy or Neleh.

Brian: Reading my mind.

Susan: Of course, the thing to hurt Kathy the most is to lose the first challenge, and be voted off by Vee, Paschal, and Neleh. Although I don’t think that would happen, because right now, Kathy needs Vee and Vee needs Kathy. And even if it should come out to both Kathy and Vee in the final 2, anything is possible.

Brian: Watch some serious alignment/alliance going on between Vee and Kathy. It will happen. They will do well. I wouldn’t be surprised to find those two in the finals. But I think Kathy’s perspicacity will pull her through to a win.

Susan: There are two more reasons I think Kathy will not win – both silly but who knows. One is that Rosie herself announced Kathy as the winner on Friday’s show. I like Rosie, but I don’t think she is a reliable source. This may be a red herring.

Brian: Oh there are so many possibilities of what she said. She never announced Kathy as the winner but that she was pulling for her and even said that she knew who the winner was. It could be conversely interpreted that Kathy makes final two and loses. And my God… did I just talk myself out of my argument? You didn’t see that. Move on. Move on. Second point.

Susan: The other reason, is something on the opening montage – that no one else has commented on. I have seen articles that Neleh could be the winner because of mirror images, you yourself addressed this in an article. But if you watch the opening credits, when they show Vee, the camera cuts to one of the earlier challenges, of lighting torches on a raft. You see the torch being lit as Vee’s little introduction fades into Gina’s. Now Gina is gone, but not forgotten, but could this be an obvious hint by MB that indeed Vee’s torch is NOT SNUFFED? Food for thought.

Brian: Susan, you’re reading into things too much. Like people who were analyzing the reason why Kelly from the first edition of Survivor had her face appear twice in the opening credits. I doubt he would put another clue in the opening credits like he did at that one episode where had Richard crossing the bridge as Jeffy P said one person would take home the top prize.

Susan: Brian, I am sure the one thing that we can agree on is this game has been so unpredictable, and twisted and turned so many ways that, like a good game of chess, it will be pondered over and studied for days after the chips have fallen, and a new Survivor has been crowned. Who ever gets it this time truly deserves it. And no matter what, I know I will be enjoying it live in Central Park, Sunday, with my favorite sparring partner.

Brian: Yes, well considering that the four previous tribal councils spent watching the Rotu-4 go one by one has been pretty boring, there has been some nice twists and turns. And, no matter what, we will be enjoying it live (and freezing cold) in Central Park. Who knows, maybe Danny and Oswald will be there. Have I told you how STUNNING Oswald is in person?

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You can reach Susan at sschechter@earthlink.net; Brian can be reached at TheRealityFactor@aol.com.