Why Paschal Lost

Well, that was interesting. For the first time ever, somebody was booted because of pure, unadulterated chance. Or, at least that’s how it looks. Is that really the case? Even though it was a draw of the rocks that caused Paschal to leave the tribe, we’ll still take a look back at my article, What Marquesan Survivors Should Have Learned, and see what Paschal did right, and what eventually led to his downfall.

The first rule, of course, is to scheme and plot. For a long time, Paschal didn’t have to think about such things. He was in the routing Rotu, and then when he got to Maraamu, there was really no thought necessary to vote out Sarah. He went merrily along, perhaps forgetting he was in a game.

But then, it happened. Kathy tried to tell him about the Rotu Four. He ignored it. He needed to see it with his own eyes – which he did when it came time for the coconut-cutting Immunity Challenge. It all became clear, and then he began playing the game. He had sworn he didn’t want to keep Sean, but suddenly it was his only option. So he did the right thing for the game; he plotted, along with Neleh, Kathy, Sean, and Vecepia, to get rid of the Rotu Four. And it worked. When they were gone, he kept on playing, trying to “explain” to Kathy just how clear it was that she should get rid of Sean. And again it worked! He schemed, he plotted, and it got him to the final four.

And here I’m just going to skip right to where he went wrong. Yes, he made it to the final four. He did so in part because of his bond/alliance/whatever you want to call it with Neleh. But then it came to a point when it was a tie – two votes against Neleh, two against Kathy. None against Paschal. He had a choice. He could have told Neleh that he was sorry, but he had to change his vote so he would stay in the game. Or he could take a 33% chance of leaving, even though he had no votes cast against him. According to rule #5, he should have done the former. He should not have let his emotions interfere with the gameplay. But he couldn’t do it. Maybe this makes him a better person in the real world. Maybe it means he will forever be friends with Neleh. Maybe he’s a great guy. But it also was a terrible move to make in the context of the game itself.

The other rules tend to fall by the wayside. He didn’t plot too much, he didn’t backstab until he absolutely needed to, he pretended to be nice as was necessary, and he wasn’t lazy. It all came down to his good plotting, and his bad idea of letting his emotions control him.

But what about Kathy and Vee? Normally I would ask if they were right to vote for Paschal. In this case, though, I have to ask if they should have targeted Neleh the way they did. Or was Paschal really a stronger competitor? Frankly, I think they should have gone after Paschal anyway. Kathy wanted to, but Vee overruled her. Why? Apparently only because of her feelings about Neleh – which makes her statements at the end that much more ironic when she noted that she had the best shot against Neleh. Then again, Paschal probably wouldn’t have lasted too long in the final Immunity Challenge (especially since he collapsed in the relative comfort of the loser’s lodge after being voted off). In the end, it didn’t matter either way. Their perhaps poor judgment was overcome by the luck of the draw.

Throughout most of this season, the fifth rule really didn’t come into play much. Alliances shifted without regard for personal feelings. For example, even though Paschal and Neleh had bonded well with Gina, they knew they had to vote against her instead of Kathy as the final boot before the merge. But what Paschal was able to do then, he was unable to do with Neleh. They had more of a bond, and he could not break it.

Now, some might think to blame Neleh. After all, if she had just given in the way Rodger allowed himself to be voted out before Elisabeth in Survivor 2, Paschal wouldn’t have lost (at least not at this point). But she did the right thing. She wanted the prize, and she wasn’t going to just pack it in. Besides, by going with chance, their two-person team had a 33% chance of making it through. Even 33% is better than nothing. No, Neleh was not to blame. Paschal was.

He didn’t really play until Day 24, but when he did, he made it count. He had a solid two-person alliance with Neleh. But his alliance was also a strong friendship. And that’s where he went wrong. He allowed his friendship to ruin his chances to win a million dollars. That is why Paschal lost.

David Bloomberg is the Editor of RealityNewsOnline, and can be reached at david.bloomberg@pobox.com.

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