Survivor: Thailand - Helen's Future Looks Good, If She Plays It Right

At this point in Survivor 5, we have to remember two things: the nature of alliances and the concept of the minimum winning coalition (MWC). Knowing this, assuming a merge before the next immunity challenge, all other things equal (that is, discounting ejection-saving immunity wins later on), this puts Helen into the driver's seat. But if this does not transpire and Chuay Gahn loses the next immunity challenge, even here she has perhaps the best hand.

To try to understand in which way the game will go, recall the situation when nine were left in Survivor 4, because they understood the concept of a minimum winning coalition (MWC), two pairs (Pascal and Neleh; Sean and Vecepia) and a singleton (Kathy) created a "wretched of the Earth" (WOE) coalition to take down the Rotu Four (John, Tammy, Robert, and Zoe). The present situation provides even more complexity, with two pairs in one alliance (Penny and Erin, Ken and Jake) and a pair (Brian and Ted) with one singleton (Clay) and two singletons working together (Helen, Jan) in the other. Will a WOE coalition form to take down the Golfing Group? First, it's worth noting that it's not a WOE coalition when a singleton makes a switch, as did Brandon in Survivor 3. Only one of the wretched changes, and a singleton switch that changes a majority into a minority and vice-versa doesn't work because, after the new minority gets reduced by one, putting it two below the new majority, the new majority has the luxury of lopping off its newest member, a proven unreliability. For a WOE strategy to work, a pair at minimum (think Pascal and Neleh) must bolt. One of them cannot be excised without threatening the new majority, for the other member burned by their new group could just hop back to the other (unless... see below).

Obviously, the singletons working together must move in concert to pull of a successful WOE move. From a MWC perspective, the only value for Helen to stay separate from Jan now is in case the merge does not come soon enough and Chuay Gahn loses, making Jan the eviction target. When a merge comes, if she's still there, Helen must unite with Jan.

No matter what their choice of partners, Helen and Jan must wait two moves. The more depleted potential senior partners are, the more valuable their pair becomes. They know that after two more Sook Jai are gone, they have made their future partners equal to their strength, and combined one more than the Golfing Group. Then it becomes their choice: either make the switch and take out all of the Golfing Group and go to endgame even up, or switch back after lopping off two of the Group and taking out one of the last Sook Jai, going into endgame as the dominant group and suddenly forcing two singletons into their own WOE strategy to keep one of them in the game (assuming immunity winnings don't interfere with the progression outlined here). The latter strategy, busting up both other alliances, is preferable and, considering the potential skills of the competitors, Clay should be left from the Golfing Group and the last Sook Jai should be Jake (meaning the four oldest players will have made the final four - with Helen the youngest).

There are two responses the Golfing Group can make to the Chuay Gahn women's pursuit of a WOE strategy. First, after lopping off a Sook Jai, they could take out (say) Helen and hope Jan calculates her chances are poorer as a singleton defector than staying put. The same logic applies to taking out Jan rather than Helen. Second, after the demise of two Sook Jai, the Carolina duo (Brian and Ted) could secretly negotiate with Helen (who has shown antipathy to Clay) to lop off one more Sook Jai, then evict Clay and Jan and head into endgame with a Sook Jai (again, assuming immunities work out this way). Either way, they would enter endgame as the dominant group. Note that the "go with the devil you know" imperative precludes other combinations. Helen has the most control here because she can best call the shots. First, she (with Jan) can time when to make the move to form the WOE group (and to reverse it). Second, she has inroads into the Golfing Group, unlike Jan, and can hope to forestall the Golfing's Group response to a planned WOE coalition that could include her ejection. Third, if all works out for her, she enters endgame as part of the only alliance who has a weaker partner than she.

Basically, Helen also is set if the tribes don't merge and Sook Jai loses immunity. The result is the same unless her optimal endgame opponent from there, Jake, gets eliminated on Day 24. Only a Chuay Gahn loss in this scenario foils her plans, for while the Golfing Group seems more inclined to take out Jan than her, losing Jan means she loses her WOE leverage. This would make her a singleton unable to wisely defect unless she can divine the growing split between the two sub-alliances in Sook Jai, hook up with one, use it and the other to take down the Golfing Group, then have her majority sub-alliance wipe out the other in Sook Jai and hope for an immunity win to go to the jury vote (likely her two Sook Jai partners would gang up on her once her usefulness had ended). If she can read the situation correctly, making herself useful to a sub-alliance as well as an alliance, she might be able to avoid the usual fate of singleton switchers.

While the Golfing Group has the collective advantage at this time, the single individual who can do the most to ensure herself victory through smart play and avoiding bad luck now is Helen.

Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University in Shreveport where he teaches, among other things, classes in international politics, international organizations, and diplomatic history. He has published in the area of gaming simulations in international politics.

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