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Survivor: The Amazon - Getting to the Final Two Predicted in the Gambling Scandalby Charlie Reneke -- 04/09/2003
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This article is brought to you by my latest eBay auction. If you want 100 Atari 2600 games that work, follow the magic link. Hurry up, the auction is going to end quick... almost as quick as it will take for Survivor: The Amazon's only standing alliance to vote Butch off. Almost. With Roger and Dave already gone, Butch's head is firmly on the chopping block. He knows it. Everyone watching knows it. But I'm not counting on Butch getting booted this week. I would bet on it if online casinos hadn't stopped taking Survivor bets as discussed in David Bloomberg's previous article on the Survivor betting scandal.
So how likely is it that Jenna and Matthew would end up in the finals? Perhaps the gambler in question was just really lucky. Not so fast: this is the same person who bet on a Clay-Brian finals and a Vecepia-Neleh finals right off the bat, so scratch that one. Maybe it's Mark Burnett trying to throw spoiler board fanatics off the trail. Dream on. Big Mark has more things to be concerned about then what a handful of people on some obscure message board think is a spoiler.
This is the real deal folks... It's Jenna vs. Matthew in the finals. How is that possible? The answer is simple: the alliance is going to die, and it's not too hard to figure out why. Take a look at the people inside the alliance. Deena and Rob both think they are the leaders. Alex, Heidi, and Jenna hardly see like the type of people who will stand around and take orders. Christy is an outsider looking in, and so is Matthew, although he has no idea that he's just a pawn.
With all these egos paired together, something has to give. And I think the straw that will break the camel's back will be Rob. Up to this point, Rob has played Survivor pretty dang well. Well, except for the fact that Rob believes himself to be an almighty puppeteer. Real masters of manipulation do it without anyone else knowing that their strings are being pulled, and at least one person in the alliance has witnessed Rob play politics.
In the early Tambaqui tribe, Rob tried to get Roger booted twice, but couldn't find the votes. However, both Matthew and Alex were exposed to his scheming. Matt might not have come into the game with a decent grasp of how to play the game, but that might work out to his advantage. He's a smart guy, and Rob's visible detest for him is showing up more and more. Hell, Jeff Probst called him on it during tribal council. Sooner or later, Matthew will realize he's being played, and act accordingly. The girls already don't trust Rob, so Matthew will have no problem finding the votes needed to get him kicked off.
Unlike Rob, Matthew is playing Survivor by ear. He has no pre-conceived notions of how things should happen in the context of the game. Rob thinks manipulation is the key to winning. Wrong! The key to winning Survivor is to choose the right friends. That's what pushed Vecepia and Ethan to the top of the pack. All of Rob's friends are ready to drop him like a bad habit.
Then you have Jenna. Nobody likes Jenna. Hell, I don't like Jenna. She's a snot and an airhead. Saying that Deena is a 'fat cow' for wanting food is almost as low as ignoring Christy for a week. So how is she going to end up in the finals? Because she is the best choice for an opponent. Matthew might not know much about Survivor, but you don't need such information to know that having an unlikable person against you in the finals ups your odds. There is no way in hell Christy will give Jenna the money. Then again, there is no way Rob will give Matt the money. For Matt to win, he will need to create the illusion of betrayal on Jenna's part to Heidi and Deena. That's just to be on the safe side, of course. Butch, Dave, Alex, and Christy will give Matt the money in the end.
Matt is going to win Survivor. Who on Earth would have guessed that last month when he was almost voted out a couple times? Well, obviously at least one CBS employee.
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