Survivor: The Amazon – WOE is Rob

Whoa! WOE!

I have to hand it to Rob, who I did not see as capable of this, finally thinking with the big head, providing the crucial vote to give himself and the three Wretched of the Earth (WOE) of Jacare (Butch, Christy, Matt) the upper hand. Maybe if he uses it some more, he can find a way out of the almost untenable situation into which he has put himself.

Not that this was a bad move. Alex clearly signaled to him that he was the fourth wheel of the tricycle composed of Alex, Jenna, and Heidi. Unless Rob could win immunities, he would never have headed to the jury against them (nice move to clue him in, Alex – what is it with all these players recently who voluntarily sit in the electric chair and then blissfully flip the switch?).

Rob had one other alternative – get Alex aside and tell him he could bring Matt aboard, then they could knock out Butch, Christy, and then the Naked Hotties. But it became clear that Alex saw Matt as too much of a threat (wouldn't you rather compete for immunities against 90-pound women?).

Still, Rob traded up to become fourth wheel in the WOE tricycle. Matt is now well aware of Rob's proclivities, and obviously trusts his fishing buddy Butch more. Christy also recognizes Rob as an opportunist so basically he finds himself in the same situation as he was three days past.

Yet Rob can surprise me again and make me reevaluate his playing skills if he makes a necessary power move. In three days, the Jacare WOE must take down whichever Hottie doesn't win immunity (if neither do, probably Heidi, since the latest immunity challenge seemed to show more negativity in the tribe towards Jenna). Then Rob must act.

Matt remains his closest ally despite suspicions. At this juncture, Rob must convince Matt to jump over with him to the remaining Hottie to take out Butch and Christy. He must do so by getting him to believe that she would be the easiest to beat in the final immunity challenge. As guileless as he claims himself to be (and by now it is reasonable to suspect that he's not as clueless as he lets on), Matt should see that the best chance for the million samoleons is up against a Hottie or Rob – Christy and Butch simply have too much goodwill to lose against him.

In short, Rob must construct a 2+1+2 coalition (which he was unable to do with Alex and the Hotties with Matt) out of the ashes around him, putting Matt in his dyad and forcing the Hottie into a difficult singleton role. If he does so, even if he then gets sent home in third place, maybe then I will, grudgingly, admit that Rob showed some decent talent in this game.

Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University in Shreveport where he teaches, among other things, classes in international politics, international organizations, and diplomatic history. He has published in the area of gaming simulations in international politics.

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