Big Brother 4: How Alison Can Win

Big Brother 4’s Alison has become one of the least liked contestants on this year’s show – not just by those in the house, but those at home as well. However, whether you like her or not, I think she stands a decent chance of winning the whole shebang.

Yes, I know – I hear you yelling at your computer screen that I’m crazy. Nobody trusts her, so how could she possibly win? Well, first I’d like to point you back to a guy named Will Kirby two years ago. Nobody trusted him. In fact, he told people not to trust him! Yet he won. Certainly part of it was that he was up against Nicole, who had turned psycho. But before he could stand against her in the final two, he had to make his way to that point.

As much as I have made fun of Alison for claiming that her repeated makeout sessions with various HouseGuests have been related to “strategy,” there may actually be some truth to that. She was on the block and needed Nathan to use the Veto on her. By flirting, making out with him, being his best buddy, and all of that, she managed to convince him that it was the two of them against the world and he needed to save her. That was the only time the Veto has been used so far this summer.

Similarly, she flirted with Justin, allowed him to put candle wax on her chest, etc. Even though he should know better, he allowed himself to believe that she was on his side.

There are, of course, a couple problems with this. First, she made out with Dave shortly before he left the house. There was absolutely no strategic value to that as everybody knew Dave was going and he would not be on the jury. In addition, some of her flirting with Justin (including the candle wax incident in the hot tub) was done while she was plastered, and it’s difficult to believe that strategy was on her mind at the time.

But overall, her strategy has been to make everybody think she’s on their side, and then flip-flop to whomever happens to be in control that week. She was hanging out with the Stooges last week, when Justin was HOH. But as soon as HOH was up for grabs again, she was talking about being in an alliance with Jack and Erika. Once Erika won, she was back talking to some of the Stooges about joining back up with them and being solid with the remaining members if they were to win the next HOH. In the Diary Room, she revealed her plan to jump back and forth between groups.

The other HouseGuests seem to know that she is not trustworthy. Over and over again we’ve seen them talking amongst themselves about how they cannot tell her about this deal or that plan. But then they do it anyway! Similar things happened with Will Kirby – they’d say they can’t trust him but then they’d keep him around and involve him in their plans.

So what is Alison’s best chance for winning? Pretty much to just keep on doing what she’s doing. Jump back and forth and let the two sides pick off each other instead of her. She should try to be a little more subtle about it, but so far her lack of subtlety hasn’t really hurt her, so maybe that’s not an issue.

One thing she should seriously consider is an alliance with Jun. She has been muttering to members of both alliances that she thinks Jun should go soon. One of the others suggested that she wants to be the only floater, so she doesn’t like that Jun jumps back and forth as well. But the fact is that pairing up with Jun secretly may be the only way she can win.

Several of the other HouseGuests have talked about Jun being a “snake.” That’s exactly the type of person Alison needs to be up against in the final two. I don’t see how Alison could possibly win against any of the other remaining HouseGuests, as all of them are more likeable than she is and have fewer out-and-out enemies. Against Jun, though, Alison would have a fighting chance. Similarly, Jun should be seeking out an alliance with Alison. Jun’s secret alliance with Jee could lead her to second place, but never to first. She needs somebody as bad as she is to compare herself to – and with Alison it would at least be a toss-up.

Whether the two of them recognize this is currently the biggest unknown. We haven’t seen anything to indicate that they have thought about it, and that could spell their doom in the end. If Alison continues to lobby for – and gets – Jun’s eviction, I will say right now that there is no way Alison can win. If she teams up with her and they become a duo of floaters, she at least has a fighting chance.

Want to keep up with important events in the house? Check out our Big Brother 4 Spoiler Page for news on who wins contests and other ongoing info.

David Bloomberg is the Editor of RealityNewsOnline and can be reached at RNO@pobox.com.

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