Strategic Overview of Survivor: More Bad Moves than Good in Episode 1

It’s sad when the best move of the first three days of Survivor 7 came when, in the middle of the first immunity challenge male members of Drake went bottomless, a camera angle from their rear proclaimed “Morgan Behind.”

Well, I partially take that back. Sure, strategic mistakes popped up more often than Democratic candidates announcing for the presidency, but some people did make some good decisions. Lillian turned a potential boot into complete safety by her realization after her tribe lost the first challenge (and the guys had put their pants back on) of the necessity of revealing Nicole’s insecurity. Nobody wants as an ally somebody who can’t act diplomatically (which Lillian must have realized or else she might have attempted the mistake of allying herself with Nicole) so she no longer had any use to anybody.

But mistakes came much more frequently:

• Andrew “accepts” the “leader” role. Way to mount a huge target on your back, big guy. At the risk of mixing metaphors, smarter players will let him lead with his chin, and then deck him when it suits them.
• Rupert’s theft. Now nobody will feel they can trust him, and the Morgan gang will punish him the first chance they get (assuming they find out, and surely they know or will when an enemy of Rupert’s from Drake will tattle, if Rupert makes it that far). What was he thinking, that selling or trading a few zapatos was going to make or break their entire game? If you think it’s that important, just do it and make sure nobody knows about it.
• Tijuana’s lack of diplomacy. By fulminating against Nicole, even if she won the battle at the time, she’ll soon lose the war unless she can get people’s impression out of their heads that she lacks tact and reacts too emotionally – not a quality you want in an alliance member.
• Jon’s inability to understand his shortcomings. As Harry Callahan said (repeatedly) in Magnum Force, “a man’s got to know his limitations.” If you feel you have to tell people you’re smart, you’re not. If you feel you have to tell people you’re witty, you’re not. Instead, you’re irritating and placing yourself at great risk.

In fact, including Nicole’s, these mistakes came about from ignoring what another famous Hollywood detective once counseled. In an episode of Columbo, when asked by college students about a good piece of advice for a detective, the eponymous lieutenant said, “Don’t talk too much. Keep things to yourself.” Last installment, this ability saved Rob time and time again. He kept strategically overplaying his hand, would put himself into a bind, but then skirt disaster by discovering, then using information discreetly and wisely – unlike his compatriots Deena and Alex, who told the world things best left to themselves and caused people to turn against them.

Procuring food wins brownie points from tribemates. Bonding with a few people helps. Being personable can’t hurt your chances. But, providing one knows how to get it and what to do with it, information takes you farther in the game than any of these. Lillian seemed to know, and it bought her another three days. Will others in this series learn this lesson?

Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University in Shreveport where he teaches, among other things, classes in international politics, international organizations, and diplomatic history. He has published in the area of gaming simulations in international politics.

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