Survivor: Pearl Islands – Who Will Go in Episode 3?

I was on the edge of my seat while I watched this past week’s episode of Survivor. The Morgan tribe lost immunity. I predicted last week that Skinny Ryan would be the one to go. But then, Osten started making noise about wanting to go home. I was torn – if Skinny Ryan were to be sent packing, my prediction would be correct. But if Osten were voted out, I’d be very pleased to get rid of the idiot who sold all of his clothes, then complained that it was uncomfortable to walk around in his underwear all the time, the muscle-bound wimp who claimed it was too hard after only five days, the pig who tried to convince women he’d just met to flash their breasts for food. Yes, I would be pretty happy to see the word “Buzzed” on this guy’s butt for the last time as walked off the island. Tribal council was a nail-biter, but in the end, Skinny Ryan was sent packing. That would make my predictions 100% accurate so far! Let’s see if I can keep it up after this week’s predictions. Who will be voted out in Episode 3? And what could they do to save themselves? (Remember that this is all based on what’s occurring on the show – no spoilers here!)

I’m going to start with the Drake tribe. Drake is continuing to dominate. Their camp looks great. They have so much food that they can complain about feeling full after a meal. And Drake hasn’t lost a challenge yet. If they keep playing like they have been, they won’t have to go to tribal council this week. But on Survivor, anything can happen. If Drake loses the next challenge, who will be the first member voted out?

The only source of tension we saw at Drake this week came when Shawn lost the head of the fishing spear. Shawn had been doing some of the fishing, no doubt to take a little bit of the spotlight away from master angler Rupert. Although Rupert had warned him that the head of the spear was loose, Shawn lost it in the ocean while he was fishing. Shawn said he spent an hour looking for it, but he couldn’t find it. Rupert eventually found the spear, but could Shawn’s mistake still have hurt him?

I don’t think Shawn’s mistake will cost him at Drake’s first tribal council. It was a mistake to lose the spear, but it was a mistake that could have happened to anyone. Shawn handled the situation as best he could. He immediately owned up to it, apologized to the tribe, and spent a good amount of time looking for the lost item. Rupert said he gave up too easily, but I don’t agree. He lost the thing in the freaking ocean – that’s a big place to look. And in spite of Rupert’s speeches about the importance of the spear, the rest of the tribe didn’t seem too angry or concerned with Shawn’s mistake. They were just as happy to try to improvise with a fork or other sharp object attached to the spear. In the end, Shawn was contrite and the spear head was found, so in the three days before the next tribal council, Shawn’s mistake will be forgotten.

On the other hand, I think Rupert’s reaction to Shawn’s mistake might prove more costly than the mistake itself. Rupert repeatedly referred to the spear as “my spear” instead of “our spear.” It’s one thing to position yourself as the food-provider for the tribe, but it’s another to boldly proclaim it as your job and your job alone. Let me put it another way. Survivor tribes like having a leader, and they benefit from it, but no one likes to be hit over the head with the fact that one person is in charge. If you’re going to be cast on Survivor, you likely have a strong personality and might not be good at following someone else. Similarly, players might come to resent the fact that someone like Rupert is making such a point of being the one to provide all of the food. Members of the Drake tribe might start to think, “We don’t need him around to catch fish. Any one of us could do the same.”

Rupert also made the error of reacting very emotionally to Shawn’s mistake. His first response was to completely lose his temper. It’s reasonable to be upset about such a loss, but Rupert took things too far. When he glared at Shawn while snapping the limbs off a tree, it was menacing and scary. And when Shawn told the tribe about his mistake, Rupert’s reaction was much more vehement than anyone else’s. The rest of the tribe was ready to forgive Shawn and move on, but Rupert wanted to keep talking about what a horrible blow it was to the tribe. Nobody cared, but Rupert went on and on. Rupert made the mistake of appearing volatile and emotional, two bad traits to have in a fellow tribe member. Still, I don’t think Rupert’s reaction is enough to get him voted out at tribal council. He found the spear, and he and Shawn seem to be getting along fine again. Drake won two great challenges, so everyone seems to be in a good mood. Just as Drake will forget Shawn’s mistake, they’ll forget Rupert’s outburst. If Rupert can manage to keep his temper in check and tone down his emotions, he’ll be around for a while.