Survivor: Pearl Islands – Who Will Go in Episode 5?

Last week my brilliant streak of correctly predicting the Survivor contestant to be expelled came to an end. My record is now two out of three – I never would have predicted that a physically strong player like Burton would be the first member of the Drake tribe to be sent home. Now that we know a little more about tribal politics on the Drake tribe, and now that Morgan has finally tasted victory, it’s time to guess who will be the most likely player from each tribe to be sent home in Episode 5. And, what might those players do to keep themselves in the game? Remember, my predictions are based solely on speculation, not spoilers. I have no more information than you do, I promise!

Life on the Morgan island is bound to be different this week. For the very first time, Morgan will not be recovering from a tribal council. In fact, rather than losing a member, they’ll have gained a member, temporarily at least. As you’ll remember, when Morgan won the immunity challenge, they chose Rupert to join them through the next reward challenge. It will be very interesting to see how Pirate Rupert will react to having been captured by the enemy. From the previews, it looks like he’s using his time at Morgan to teach that tribe how to fish with their spear gun. Considering how successful he’s been so far at catching fish, Rupert should make himself very popular indeed with his temporary tribe mates. That said, I don’t think Rupert’s time with the Morgan tribe will make much of an impact on the game in the short term. Rupert is too canny a player to give away any secrets to the Morgan players. And when he comes back, the other members of his alliance will undoubtedly be loyal to him. Rupert is such a strong player they’ll be glad to have him on their side once more.

Once Rupert leaves Morgan, I predict it will be business as usual there. Andrew, Tijuana, Osten, and Ryan have formed a tight alliance. Darrah is the odd one out, and she didn’t do anything last week to improve her standing at all. It’s not hard to predict that if Morgan loses another immunity challenge, Darrah will go home. Faced with a four against one tribal council vote, Darrah doesn’t have many options to stay in the game. Her best bet is if the game somehow changes – if the tribes are switched or if she has the opportunity to jump ship or at least go over to Drake for a few days like Rupert has done in reverse.

But it’s hard to count on something that might not even happen. Darrah’s best bet is to convince the other members of her tribe to vote out someone in their alliance. Darrah should start her scheming by having a little talk with Andrew. Remind him that the merge is coming up – if they want to have any prayer of standing up to Drake, they’ll need to have the strongest possible members of the Morgan tribe left. Of the five remaining Morgans, the weakest link is not her, but Osten. For all of his muscle and early bravado, Osten is by far the wimpiest member of the tribe. He threatened to quit after only a few days. In the challenge where he had to anchor the tribe by holding up Darrah’s weight, he let the tribe down. And in the most recent reward challenge, he literally couldn’t stay afloat. Convince Andrew that Osten is a liability. If the strongest, toughest, smartest members of the Morgan tribe go to the merge, they will be more likely to present an attractive package to any stray Drakes looking for a new alliance. Get rid of Osten and they’ll have the best possible chance of staying in the game. That’s Darrah’s best chance at surviving the next tribal council.

Over on the Drake island, things have gotten very interesting. We are at last privy to some tribal bickering. Drake was not a “happy tribe” as Jon drunkenly claimed at tribal council, but instead people were getting on one another’s nerves. Indeed, it may have been Burton who initially suggested throwing the immunity challenge, but the other players clearly weren’t trying their hardest to win. At tribal council, Trish, Shawn, Christa, Jon, and Sandra all cast their votes for Burton. Rupert, away at Morgan, did not participate in Tribal Council. However, he had made it clear that he wanted Burton out of the game and was aligned with the women, so Rupert is also a part of that majority alliance. That leaves Michelle as the only remaining member of the tribe not to have voted against Burton. That puts a big target on her back and makes her the most likely person to be voted out of Drake next.

Michelle will have to do some serious scheming to stay in the game. Michelle could try forming an all-female alliance with Trish, Christa, and Sandra. The three of them are smart women and might find the idea of an all-female final four appealing. Perhaps an even better solution would be to do so some manipulating. Which other member of the tribe has annoyed the most people? That’s easy – it’s Jon. Heck, Jon even managed to annoy Jeff Probst. Go for a walk or go fishing with Rupert. Tell him that Jon seems to keep switching alliances. One minute he’s tight with one group of people, the next minute he’s huddled up with another group. Confide in Rupert that Jon told you that after the merge, he plans to team up with the members of the Morgan tribe. Basically, Michelle needs to lie her pretty little head off to fill Rupert with reasons to doubt Jon’s loyalty. If she can convince Rupert that Jon is a potential turncoat, he’ll get the rest of the tribe to join in voting him off. If Michelle can manage to get Rupert on her side, she’ll survive the next tribal council. Otherwise, she’s doomed.

Will Darrah or Michelle plot and scheme their way into safety, or will they be forced to walk the plank? Tune in Thursday night to find out!

Betsy can be reached with any comments at betsyw42@hotmail.com.

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