RNO Roundtable: Which Outcasts Will Return to the Pearl Islands?

This week’s episode of Survivor: Pearl Islands will begin with the Outcasts voting in two members who had already been voted out. Who will be selected? Several of our writers have some thoughts. Let’s see what Sting7, Betsy Wasser, C. Brian Devinney, and David Bloomberg have to say:

Sting7: Burton coming back is a given. He captained the special three-way challenge, there was no doubt he was the leader. He absolutely deserves to return based on that performance alone. He really wants back in the game in the worst way, and someone may have to kill him to keep him out. The rest is dicey. I'm sure the Outcast tribe would want to send someone in who has a level shot at winning. Who could that be?

Lill is smart, and she's tough, but I don't see how she would fare very well against the likes of Rupert, Andrew, Ryan O., Tijuana, Christa, and Darrah in the physical challenges. Trish I see as a very smart player who made a dumb move. Physically, not so imposing. A wasted opportunity on her. Nicole has the physical stamina, but even she admits she has trouble not speaking her mind on everything, and that's the kind of person who could get unanimously voted out. Fast.

Ryan S. got the raw end of the deal. We know that Andrew somehow took an immediate dislike to Ryan for reasons even Ryan doesn't know. Could he come back to Drake, endear himself to Sandra and Christa with his boy next door charm, be a playmate to Jon, and listen to Rupert's stories? Interesting. Or Michelle, whose only real mistakes were choosing the wrong people to align with and not being Julia Roberts during the gross-out. She would fit right in the beleaguered Morgans like a hand in a glove. At Morgan, mental toughness is a premium (because they don't eat!). She has that.

So, I say the Outcast Tribe will select Burton and... Michelle to return.

Betsy: The members of the Outcast tribe have one thing in common: they feel like they got screwed over and they want revenge. If I were in that group and couldn't vote for myself, I'd vote for the person that I thought would be most likely to win. So let's look at the options:

Ryan S: Perceived as weak, made no friends. No way is he going to win.

Lill: She's smart and strong, but again, not good at alliance building. She can't win, either.

Trish: She just alienated her entire tribe. She made a poor political move that lost her the game. And it all happened a very short while ago. Sorry, but she can't come back from that to win.

Nicole: She was the first one voted off because she did a terrible job at reading the mood of the tribe and at trying to build alliances. Those are skills that are absolutely vital to win the game, and she doesn't have them.

Michelle: She's a nice person who works hard at challenges (with the notable exception of not acting disgusted enough at the food challenge). She mainly got voted out because she chose the wrong alliance, but can you blame her – Burton and Shawn seemed like good people to be aligned with, and she thought Jon was on their side. I'd give her another shot.

Burton: Not only is this guy strong, but he showed in that challenge that he is hungry for a chance to get back into the game. Give him another shot, and he'll do whatever it takes to stay alive. He'd get my vote.

Brian: It's Lillian and Burton coming back and Morgan had better be bleeping happy to get the one they get after Osten's departure. If anything they've underestimated them as players and are sure to be in for a big surprise.

David: I wish I could be as sure as Brian, but I just can’t. We don’t know how much interaction the six Outcasts have had and we certainly haven’t been allowed to see any of it (nor, from what Mark Burnett has said in interviews, will we). However, I think it’s safe to say that those who were voted off sooner have something of an advantage. Trish, for example, was only there for what, a day? No way that’s enough interaction with the non-Drakes to get her voted back in. And as for the Drakes, she helped vote off Burton and Michelle, and even noted in her interview with RealityNewsOnline that she was in tight with Rupert et al. So Trish is out, as much as it pains me to say that (because I picked her to win in our prediction article and that means my streak of picking the winner will end at two).

Nicole is probably not terribly happy with Lill or Ryan, but then she had been friendly with them before they turned on her, so maybe they apologized and moved on. She might be willing to vote for one of them to go back, but I doubt either of them would be willing to vote for her.

As everybody else has already noted, Burton is a lock. If they want to prove that, as a group, they can exact some revenge, then Burton has to go back.

Given that Burton is going back, I think the remaining Outcasts will choose to go with two people of different tribes, which leaves out Michelle. So we’re back to Ryan and Lill. With a choice between the two of them, I think we have to give it to Lill. For one thing, there are four women and two men in the Outcasts, and I don’t think the women will simply vote both men back in. For another, Lill in her Scout uniform just makes you want to see her do well, and I think that will affect the others.

So while I’m not nearly as certain as Brian is, I did come to the same conclusion.

Conclusion: So everybody picked Burton to come back for another shot. Two of us picked Lill as the second and the other two picked Michelle. Thursday night, we’ll find out just who is right – if any of us!

Be sure to sign up for our e-mail update so you can stay informed about new articles on the site! And take a look at the rest of the site. You can find all of our recaps and other info on this show at the Survivor: Pearl Islands page, and take a look at our Temptation Island 3 page and our Race to the Altar page. You can even buy reality show stuff at our Reality TV Store!

For more news about Survivor, be sure to check out SirLinksALot and Survivor Fever!