Survivor: Pearl Islands – Advice for the Remaining Nine

Lillian and Burton are back, first into Morgan and Drake respectively, then into the merged Balboa tribe. After a tribal council in which three different people were wearing immunity, one person was voted out and the battle lines are clearly drawn. Nine people are left, with seven eventually ending up on the jury and the other two going after the treasure chest with $1,000,000 in it.

So where are the battle lines? Well, we have a minority alliance of ex-Morgans Darrah, Ryan O., and Tijuana, and a super-majority of the ex-Drakes plus both Outcasts (Lillian and Burton). To slice and dice them even further, we have Rupert and his lady friends Christa and Sandra, and good ol’ Jonny Fairplay, an outsider to all groups. How should all the factions play out their position to advance in the game? What is the advice for the remaining nine?

Lillian. I would have thought a second chance at the game (and the time you spent away from it) would give you better insight into why you were voted out to begin with. However, both you and the rest of the Morgans reverted back to your previous positions. You kept getting water (alone) and firewood (alone), and the rest of them kept busy not working (together). On the whole, you were right to toss them overboard and cast your lot in with the Drakes. Actually, you're going to fit in better with them, as they are industrious and a battle is coming up over the different work ethics between the old tribes. Going forward, trust nobody except Burton. You have two choices right now – either stick with him and cut down the Morgans, then try and slice and dice the Drakes, or work with Burton and the Morgans to cut down a Drake. If you and Burton can whittle down both sides (alternating targets), you can go a long way in the game.

Burton. Like Lillian, you're an Outcast, though it seemed you were willing to meet the Drakes halfway upon your return. Even though they didn't particularly want you back, they did accept it and handled the situation far better than the Morgan tribe did. The most important thing you've done is gained control of Lillian and, to some extent, the trust of the Drake tribe. You can play the situation two ways – either work to cut down Morgan, then flip back once their numbers are reduced (say, cutting down Ryan O. and Darrah next, then approaching Tijuana and Jon with a plan to get rid of Rupert, Sandra, and Christa), or you can immediately flip-flop, with you and Lillian working to cut down a Drake member at the next tribal council (then flipping back and taking out at Morgan). I'd suggest the latter, as two people who control swing votes can be a powerful force in the game.

Jon. Well, you've seen your name on four pieces of paper, which indicates what a lot of people think about you. However, if I was playing the game and had my choice, I wouldn't even attempt to vote you out. I'd use you as jury bait. The best thing for you to do is try and work your way into the Outcast duo with a plot to stab Rupert and company in the back after the Morgan tribe is whittled down. It's a key test – a premature strike will backfire on you (just ask Deena from the Amazon). You don't have much to lose by sounding people out for a deal, since you aren't a core part of the Drake alliance and the Morgans have already tried to vote you out. The Outcasts are your best hope to get to the finals.

Rupert. You did a great job in the alliance-building part of the game, getting Burton back into the Drake tribe (at least for now), and then silently guiding Lillian into the fold (confirming her position as a valued alliance partner on Drake after her alienation from Morgan). The message was clear and simple in both cases – a fresh start with Burton and a welcome to Lillian. Burton handing you immunity seemed to cement the deal, but you need to be wary; he might be trying to lull you into a trap. Your biggest worry is not the short term, but towards the middle of end-game. While it might be in a lot of people's best strategic interest to get rid of you as soon as possible since you have so much respect and political power that nobody can afford to let you get too much further, it's unlikely the half-starved Morgans would agree to get rid of you for a few episodes at least – as long as you provide food for everybody. So keep catching fish and keep a close eye on the political situation. Work to keep Burton and Lillian on your side for the next few votes.

Christa. So far, so good. Your faction of Drakes plus the Outcasts managed to get the first win after the merge, getting rid of Andrew (an intelligent move, as anybody who can organize opposition forces is a threat to be taken care of immediately). Your own real problem is that the Outcasts might try a whittling strategy, bouncing back and force between the Drake and Morgan alliances to slowly reduce the ranks of both tribes. If that happens, you might need to win immunity. Jon is annoying to the point of being a good sucker to sit against in the finals before the jury, and Burton has already gone so far as to throw a challenge in an attempt to get rid of you. You need to work with Lillian to try to select a Morgan as the next target, and let either Sandra or Rupert to work to keep Burton voting that way.