Survivor: Pearl Islands – Who Will Go in Episode 10?

Last week, I correctly predicted that Ryan O. would be sent home from the Pearl Islands. Even though I was right, I based my conclusion on a number of assumptions, several of which were wrong. If I’m going to predict what will happen next week (especially without using spoilers), I’ll need to look at those old assumptions and see how the game has shifted again.

I predicted last week that Tijuana, Darrah, and Ryan O. would vote together. I was wrong. Tijuana and Darrah actually voted against Ryan O. We weren’t given any clues as to why they turned against their former ally. Did they make a deal with another alliance? Were they annoyed with Ryan for some reason? Neither scenario seems likely. The former Drakes plus Lill wanted to vote out the next biggest threat in the former Morgan tribe, and they didn’t need Darrah and Tijuana’s votes. They would have no reason to offer them a deal. Also, we were never given any indication that the two women had any problem with Ryan. Even if they did find him irritating for some reason, as a member of their former tribe, he was the person they could trust most. If they wanted to stay in the game, they’d need his vote if they ever wanted to come up with a majority at tribal council.

The most likely reason Tijuana and Darrah voted against Ryan is because he asked them to. Ryan knew that his head was on the chopping block and he probably knew that he hadn’t managed to convince any of the former Drakes to vote out one of their own. I believe Ryan told them women to vote against him to save themselves. After voting off Ryan, Tijuana and Darrah can go back to camp claiming that the former Morgans didn’t have such a strong bond after all. They can try to convince one of the other voting blocks to include them at the next tribal council. If that’s what happens, I predict that Tijuana and Darrah will stick together for the next vote. If one of the other groups wants to make a move against one of their own, an offer of two votes is better than one.

I was correct in predicting that Burton and Lill would stick together. He invited her to his reward breakfast and she was even hungrier for conversation than she was for food. They agreed that as the two former Outcasts, they should stick together, but try to hide their friendship. I believe both of them were being honest. First, it is in Lill’s best interests to stick with Burton. Rupert told her that, thanks to her being the swing vote in the previous tribal council vote against Andrew, he’d make sure she was the last former Morgan standing and that if she won immunity, he’d take out a Drake before her. Lill smiled at him and acted appreciative, but she’s not stupid—she knows that would likely mean sixth place, not the greatest offer in the world. With Burton, she will go farther and she knows it. Burton also knows that it is in his best interests to stick with Lill. It might seem like obnoxious idiot Jon is the perfect final two partner, and that is true in the case of everyone but Burton. If Burton is in the final two sitting next to Jon, he runs the risk of jurors resenting that he, a former Outcast, was let back into the game. A bitter juror could say that Jon outwitted, outplayed, and outlasted, and that Burton was let back into the game unfairly. If Burton is sitting next to Lill, the jurors will be forced to choose between two outcasts and are much more likely to award leader Burton than follower Lill. Burton and Lill will be loyal to each other—they’d be fools not to be.

I also said last week that Christa and Sandra were completely loyal to Rupert and would not plot against him. That also proved to be wrong. The two of them discussed eliminating Rupert to create an all-female alliance. They also spent some time alone with Darrah and Tijuana, gathering food and talking about what they’d do for meals should either of the male food providers “get hurt.” Rupert’s women are not completely under his thrall and are considering getting rid of him.

Rupert is also vulnerable from another side. Burton and Jon agreed that the big man is their biggest threat and needs to be eliminated. Jon also correctly told Burton that when it happens, he needs to be blindsided. Jon has learned his lesson from his last plot to get rid of Rupert. When Rupert found out about Trish’s plan to vote him out, he had no trouble assembling votes to get rid of her instead. Burton and Jon agreed that when Rupert is sent home, he can’t have any inkling of it beforehand.

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