Survivor: Pearl Islands – Who Will Go in Episode 12?

Last week, I predicted that Christa and Sandra would be lost without Rupert, and the alliance of Burton, Jon, Lill, Darrah, and Tijuana would team up again to eliminate Christa. It turns out I underestimated Sandra. She did indeed continue to scheme and plot without Rupert. She tried to convince Darrah and Tijuana that Burton and Jon would not take them to the final four, and then actually took Tijuana with her to spy on the two men. Luck was on Sandra’s side, as Burton and Jon did indeed talk about when they’d eliminate D and T, and it was not the news Tijuana wanted to hear. She and Darrah made a final four pact with Sandra and Christa and agreed to eliminate Burton at the next tribal council.

It was a great plan and would have served all four of them well. The trouble was that almost as soon as it was conceived, it started to fall apart. Tijuana told Jon of the plan to eliminate Burton, a stupid move, since she didn’t need his vote. Jon immediately got to work to save his final two partner. He offered Christa and Sandra a final four alliance if they’d keep Burton. Sandra may have been smarter than I gave her credit for last week, but she isn’t reaching genius levels because she agreed to the plan and kept the strongest, most threatening player in the game, sending Tijuana to the jury. Last week’s episode was full of twists and turns. With so many changed alliances, who is safe and who is vulnerable? Who will go in Episode 12?

First, let’s look at the voting blocks. I am confident that Burton and Jon will continue to stick together. The fact that Jon went to such an effort to save someone other than himself shows that he will indeed be loyal to Burton. And from Burton’s point of view, Jon is still an excellent pick to take to the final two. Even if no one ever finds out that he lied about his grandmother (and I don’t think anyone will, unless Jon is an even bigger idiot than I think and brags about his lie), Jon is still a good person for Burton to go up against in a jury. They will stick together.

Christa and Sandra have been voting together since the beginning, but after last week’s episode, I don’t think their tie is as strong as it once was. Sandra knocked over the bucket of fish and let Christa take all of the blame for it. She didn’t do the honorable thing, which would be to admit responsibility and apologize. One might argue that it would have been stupid for Sandra to take the blame for the fish, that it would have hurt her too much. But she had other alternatives. She could have said that Christa would never do such a thing. Or she could have suggested that an animal knocked over the bucket while they were away. The very least she could have done was to organize a tribal fishing trip to get everyone’s mind off of the lost food. But she did none of those things, choosing instead to let Christa hang. Sandra is clearly not as loyal to Christa as I thought she was. If it’s to her advantage, Sandra will betray Christa.

What about Lill? Will she keep voting with Burton and Jon, as she has been doing? Jon promised Christa and Sandra that they would get rid of Lill, but I think that is a promise made to be broken. Lill is the idea final two partner for either Burton or Jon. The biggest strike Burton has against him in the minds of the jurors is that he was voted out of the game already. With fellow Outcast Lill by his side, that point is moot. The biggest strike against Jon is that he’s a jackass. Jon can point to Lill and say, “I may be a jackass, but at least I stayed in the game the entire time.” The two men would be foolish to let her go.

So, the two most vulnerable players are Christa and Darrah. Christa, as I mentioned, is at risk of being the victim of a disloyal Sandra. She also apparently gets on people’s nerves (though we’ve yet to see an example of her annoying behavior). Darrah is the last of the Morgans. She’s had two alliances fall apart in a very short time. The choice at the next tribal council will be between Christa and Darrah. Of the two, Darrah will be the one to go home.

Darrah has no ties left in the game. In the last episode, she plotted against Burton, Jon, and Lill, so they have no reason to be loyal to her. Then her new alliance of Christa and Sandra turned on her. As the numbers in the tribe get smaller and smaller, each tribal council becomes more difficult. Voting against Darrah would be an easy vote, and sometimes that’s what the tribe needs. Barring immunity or any big surprises, the tribe will enjoy a relatively stress-free tribal council, and Darrah will join the other Morgans on the jury.

Betsy can be reached with any comments at betsyw42@hotmail.com.

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