Survivor: All-Stars – Why Lex Should Have Kept Colby

I'm a big fan of Professor Sadow's articles on Survivor strategy. I'm impressed by the framework he's developed to analyze the ever-shifting alliances of the Survivor game. Sometimes, however, I strongly disagree with his conclusions, and his support of Lex's decision to vote out Colby is one of these cases.

In aligning himself with Jerri and Shii Ann, Lex made an unfortunate strategic decision that should hurt him greatly in the long run. He fell victim to the age-old Survivor myth that men-with-muscles ("threats" is the colloquial term, I believe) must be eliminated, even when proper strategy dictates otherwise. Too anxious to make himself a power player, he overturned a sound alliance and exposed himself in the process. There a number of reasons why Lex's decision was a flawed one, so let me deal with them in ascending order of importance:

1) Colby is a challenge asset.

Sure, Lex's gut feels a merge is imminent. Precedent, however, disputes this. In all likelihood, there will be one more immunity challenge before the merge, and that immunity will be essential for Mogo Mogo to win. A Mogo Mogo victory leads (presumably) to a 5-5 merge and just as importantly, sends Chapera to Tribal Council, creating potentially exploitable rifts within their tribe. It would be far, far easier for Lex to swing one vote from a fractured tribe, than TWO votes from the happy, unified tribe Chapera is now. As the Survivors said themselves, keeping Colby, not Jerri, increases the probability of this important challenge victory.

2) Colby is the perfect ally.

Colby is the ultimate straight shooter. If he tells Tina they're going to be the final two, then gosh darn it, they're the final two, even if it costs him $900,000 to take her. More recently, he was so nice as to propose telling Jerri that she'd be going, against all possible strategy or logic. Shii Ann, for one, has noted his candidness on several occasions. All these things make Colby the perfect person to trust and team up with. If Lex were to take Colby into the endgame, he could stand reasonably assured that Colby wouldn't secretly scheme against him. In an alliance with Ethan and Colby, Lex is the one calling the shots. In and alliance with Jerri and the Shii Devil, Lex is watching his back for knives being plunged into it.

3) Keeping Colby allows for a more united Mogo Mogo tribe.

Let's face it, with his vote for Colby, Lex left Ethan totally in the lurch. Jerri has an alliance with Lex. Lex has an alliance with Kathy. Kathy has an alliance with Shii Ann. They're all nice and secure. Ethan, though, is aligned with absolutely no one. Say Mogo Mogo does win the challenge next week, even without Colby's strength. Chapera goes to tribal council, probably boots Alicia, and the tribes merge the following week at 5-5. Who's most likely to defect at that point? The man with no allies. The man who's been backstabbed by all his teammates. The man who's already been saved from elimination once by current Chapera Jenna Lewis. Ethan. By isolating Ethan in this way, Lex is practically inviting him to turn on the tribe come merge time. In contrast, voting out Jerri isolates no one. A tribe of Ethan, Colby, Lex, Kathy, and Shii Ann has no weak links. Everyone perceives themselves as having multiple strong allies, and no one is tempted to be swayed.

4) Colby's presence shields Lex.

This reason is the most complex, yet also potentially the most important one. As things stand now, Mogo Mogo is down a member to Chapera. While it's certainly possible that some combination of challenge wins, tiebreaker procedures, and swayed Chaperans could give Mogo Mogo the upper hand post-merge, the opposite result is equally (if not more) likely. A good player ought to plan for this contingency. In Lex's case, this means keeping Colby around.

The truth is, Colby is a huge threat. He's likable, he's skilled at challenges, and he was calling the shots at Mogo Mogo on top of it all. In short, he's exactly the sort of player opposing tribes love to target first – just ask Kucha if you need more proof. Ethan is a similar sort of player, and also has the stigma of being a previous winner working against him. Going into the merge with Colby and Ethan almost assures Lex at least an extra three days to regroup, even if Chapera does oust one of his alliance-mates. This is very important. Since Africa, only one tribe (Sook Jai) has been entirely Pagonged. More often, after a couple post-merge votes along tribal lines, things have heated up and players have advanced unhindered by initial tribal affiliations. A couple examples:

• In Marquesas, the original Maraamu were horribly outnumbered at the merge. In the first post-merge tribal council, the seven-strong Rotu voted out the strongest Maraamu and the leader of their tribe, Rob Mariano. The following week, the remaining Maraamu, Vecepia and Sean, aligned themselves with the three disregarded Rotu, and rode their way into the final five. In the end Vecepia took home the million dollar check.
• In the Pearl Islands, Morgan's two strong males-Andrew and Rhino-were quickly voted out by the opposing Drake alliance. The two Morgan women, Darrah and Tijuana, survived to finish in 4th and 7th place respectively, and could have made it further if not for other strategic miscues on their parts. Andrew, Rhino, and Rob were victims of their tribes' failure and their own strength, and didn't stick around long enough to ride the wave of their tribemates' coups.

The fate of these men is the fate Lex wants to avoid. As things stand currently, Lex is the strategic leader of the Mogo Mogo tribe. He is also the second strongest physically on his tribe, behind only Ethan, who is liable to be voted out or to defect before the post-merge tribal council takes place. Both of these factors work against Lex and increase that the chance that he will be targeted shortly after the merge. If Colby were still around, he could have (unintentionally) shielded Lex and ensured he made it to the midgame. Now that is not the case.

To recap, I think Professor Sadow said it best: "When close to a merge, the best alliance partners are those who are loyal – and more likely, if need be, to get voted off than you." In Lex's case, these best alliance partners were certainly Colby and Ethan. Two loyal, straightforward Survivors who are also challenge threats with big targets on their backs. Keeping Colby around, at least for the short term, would have let Lex move further in this game. Instead Lex has voted off his best potential ally, alienated another, and positioned himself as a huge target. Now, he'll be lucky to survive the next three tribal councils.

If you haven’t already done so, make sure to check out these other Episode 7 articles:

Alex Leader-Smith is a college student and has been a reality TV fan ever since the first Survivor series. You can reach him at AlexLSmith@aol.com.

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