Survivor: All-Stars – Who Will Go in Episode 11?

Lex was voted out last week, though I maintain that his ouster wasn’t solely due to his decision to save Amber (although it didn’t help). Lex made a series of mistakes, starting with voting out Colby and Ethan, both of whom would have made better post-merge targets than him. Once the merge happened, he discovered that Boston Rob had no intention of honoring his promise to take care of him if he saved Amber (and for the record, Rob never added the “if I can do it” caveat to his offer that he later claimed he did). Lex then made his next mistake of trying to appeal to Boston Rob’s senses of honor and friendship, obviously a losing prospect. Indeed, once Boston Rob told Lex he wouldn’t save him, he might have been better off appealing to Amber’s sense of honor, since we saw her suggest to Rob that they keep Lex and Kathy around for a while longer. But he didn’t. By the time tribal council rolled around, Lex had no options left and was sent to the jury.

Kathy knows that she is likely the next target. She proved her strength by winning that last challenge, a very athletic one, and she is known as a player who is willing to vote across tribal alliances. If Rob and his crew are looking to vote out the biggest remaining threat, there’s no doubt that it’s Kathy over Shii Ann. The previews for this week’s episode suggest that Kathy will try to get some of the ex-Chaperas to join her and Shii Ann in a coup. As a result, we can expect to see a lot of strategizing, plotting, and maneuvering on Kathy’s part. Can she pull it off, or are the former Mogo Mogos doomed to be Pagonged? Who will go home next? As always, I’m not using spoilers in my predictions.

Boston Rob and Amber are a lost cause. Rob had no sympathy for Kathy and Lex’s pleas before the last tribal council. In fact, in the latest Survivor Insider article, Justin Gabriel reported that Rob made it perfectly clear that any offer on the table was for Lex, not her. Rob told Kathy, “I didn’t tell you anything. I didn’t say a word to you. I said to Lex, let’s get that straight.” As Rob votes, so will Amber. Kathy probably won’t bother trying to get the two of them to vote with her.

Then there’s Alicia. Alicia has the newest alliance with Boston Rob, an alliance that he made in desperation when he thought Amber had been voted out. I think most viewers agree that it’s an alliance Rob is not likely to honor. Unfortunately for Kathy, Alicia doesn’t seem to realize that. When Rob made his offer to her, one of the things he promised was that he would never, under any circumstances, write her name down. Then he claimed that he had made no such offer to anyone else in the game. A red flag should have gone up for Alicia right then and there. Was Rob saying that he would never write her name down, even if it meant voting out Amber instead? Was he really saying that he made no such deal with Amber, a player he was so devoted to that he had a big A on his arm? I think we all know that A is not for Alicia, yet Alicia took Rob’s offer at face value. Alicia will not be swayed to Kathy’s side this week.

What about Big Tom? Can Kathy convince Big Tom to vote with her and Shii Ann? Again, I don’t think so. Big Tom is certain that he’s in the final three with Rob and Amber, and he has had no reason to believe otherwise. Because Chapera only had to go to tribal council once, a lot of potential cracks in these alliances have never had to be exposed. If Tom were going to switch sides, he would have been more likely to have done it last week in an attempt to save his good friend Lex. He didn’t do it then, and I don’t think he’ll do it now to save Kathy.

Kathy could try to work on Rupert and Jenna. The two of them might feel like outsiders since they aren’t original members of Chapera. Plus, since the two of them are likely to vote as a pair, they’d be especially attractive to Kathy as potential alliance partners. Still, I don’t think they’ll go for it. Rupert proved in Pearl Islands that tribal loyalty is very important to him. He believes the best way to play is for your tribe to start dominant and stay that way. He and Jenna also don’t seem to feel like outsiders at all. Rupert chose Amber to go on the reward with him and Jenna because they missed having her away from their tribe. And she and Jenna have become good friends. Rupert and Jenna seem to believe Rob and Amber will take them to the final four. Even if Kathy tells them that Rob made a deal with Lex that he backed out of, they’ll see it as Rob’s being loyal to Chapera, not as Rob being trustworthy.

In the end, Kathy’s pitch is unlikely to sway any of the ex-Chaperas. Would Rupert, Jenna, Alicia, and Big Tom be smart to team up and break up the power couple? Absolutely. But on Survivor, what players should do and what they actually do are two different things entirely. If Kathy could convince some of the other players to team up with her and Shii Ann, I’d be thrilled, as it would make the game more interesting, but I don’t see it happening. Kathy’s best bet is to win immunity – in which case Shii Ann will go home. But if that doesn’t happen, Kathy will be the next member of the jury.

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Betsy is the Associate Editor of RealityNewsOnline and can be reached with any comments at betsyw42@hotmail.com.

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