RNO Roundtable: Survivor: Vanuatu – How Will It All Shake Out?

One of the most enjoyable aspects of getting involved in a reality show is making predictions about the outcome. As you can imagine, those of us who write for RealityNewsOnline have been speculating about the way Survivor: Vanuatu is going to play out. As is our custom, we have gotten together to discuss the various scenarios and make our personal predictions.

Certainly, this season of Survivor has made it pretty clear that anything is possible. We didn’t do too well in our pre-season predictions. How will we do for the final two episodes? David Bloomberg, Mel Ellis, Betsy Wasser, Donna Reynolds, Jeffrey Clinard, Brian Towers, Jeffrey Sadow, and Ken Kellam III have all pondered the following questions about the final episodes and are ready to go on the record.

Who will make it to the Final Four?

Betsy: The final four will be Chris, Scout, Twila, and Eliza. I just don’t see Julie taking the steps she needs to take to break up that foursome. She has pretty much just been reacting to what other players have been doing for weeks now and hasn’t made much of an effort to save herself since the tides changed.

Ken: Despite the previews showing Eliza and Twila having it out, I'm predicting they'll stay aligned, if only for one more vote. Since Julie has yet to win any kind of individual challenge, I don't expect to see her change that in the final five immunity challenge, and subsequently, she will be voted out 4-1.

Final four time, I'm predicting Eliza to win immunity, since she's shown herself to be both a physical and mental challenge threat. At tribal council, it will be the end of the line for Chris by a 3-1 margin. Note: In case the final four immunity is "The quiet game," this prediction is null and void.

Mel: Before last week, I thought Ami would steamroll over everyone, but ding, dong, the witch is dead! Along with her ouster went my previous predictions. Here's how I see things playing out now (first the guesses, then the explanations). I agree with Ken and Betsy that the Final Four will be Chris, Twila, Scout, and Eliza.

Here’s why I don’t think Julie will make the final four. I think Chris is in a position to win it all, but Julie has to go for that to be possible. Although Chris and Julie seem to be tight – she warned him about the possible vote-off the time he engineered Leann's ouster – he knows that he is better off with the other three. Eliza is a hanger-on of the worst variety and utterly malleable and manipulate-able, so he will bring her along. Then he should be able to successfully argue that he worked and fought and certainly strategized better than she did.

Twila and Chris bonded and promised one another final four status back when she and Julie were part of the men's tribe. He will probably bring her to the final four over Julie to be able because a) he can show he honors his commitments, which would put him in obvious juxtaposition (for Ami's vote) to Twila's lies, and b) because Twila has more enemies on the jury than he does (Sarge, Ami, Julie, and Eliza, to name four).

I think Scout will make the final four for many reasons. First of all, as the oldest, the weakest, and the most (or only) infirm of those remaining, she makes a great final two companion for anyone. She's also tight with Twila and helped save Chris (and herself in the process, I do admit). Her vote for either Twila or Chris is assured, and she hates Eliza, so Twila and Chris can count on her taking them over E. to the final three.

Donna: I agree with Betsy that Thursday’s immunity challenge will require physical strength, and Chris will win. Scout isn’t physically able to compete, and Julie and Eliza seem very weak from lack of food. Twila might win it, but she hasn’t proven to be particularly good at much of anything. At tribal council, they will vote Julie out unanimously.

Why do I see this so clearly? Julie has been rather innocuous throughout the entire show. It doesn’t seem as though anyone really dislikes her, and she could pose a serious threat with the jury and might even win under the right set of circumstances. She has to go. Chris and Eliza should be able to convince Scout and Twila of this. Julie is the only one that they can all agree upon. Scout might want Eliza out and vice versa, but the votes would then be split, endangering everyone of elimination. Julie is the logical choice.

David: I am going to go completely against the grain here. Although, it might seem like a solid move for the foursome (Chris, Eliza, Scout, and Twila) to get rid of the last remaining Ami ally before they have to fight amongst themselves, really it is only a solid move for the duo of Scout and Twila. Because if things go that way, Chris and Eliza are stuck in a dangerous situation. One of them can go forward with Scout and Twila to the Final Three. The other will go to the jury. Which is which? Who knows – we don’t, and more importantly they don’t. Then, even the one who goes to the Final Three will likely have to win immunity to make it to the end.

Twila probably figures she has a pretty good shot against Scout in the end because everybody who hates her hates Scout too, and she has the advantage of knowing the guys. Scout has already made it clear that she has a strong friendship with Twila, and I can’t see her stabbing Twila in the back even if it means winning (a Colby-like situation).