Survivor: Palau – Why Ibrehem Lost

Ulong was down to three people, and they lost again. So there was pretty much a 33% chance for anybody to go home, or so it would seem. Why, then, was Ibrehem the one who got the axe? Why did Ibrehem lose?

There was a lot of wishy-washiness going on at Ulong camp before the vote, but we can still dig into the facts and figure out the answer to this question. As always, we will be using What Palau Survivors Should Have Learned as our guide. So let’s get to it!

The most important rule is the first, which says to scheme and plot. Let’s be blunt: as far as we could tell, Ibrehem didn’t even know this was a part of the game. Bobby Jon said he had some sort of unspoken understanding with Ibrehem, and Ibrehem seemed to think he was safe with Bobby Jon. But we never actually saw them talking, and Bobby Jon even indicated that they really hadn’t specifically made an alliance.

Bobby Jon wondered aloud to us if this really mattered – the answer, of course, is that hell yes it matters! This is a game of alliances, you can’t just go on what you think is going on and hope the other person feels it as well. In the end, Bobby Jon apparently came to the same realization – he had a specific promise with Stephenie, and nothing with Ibrehem.

These three spent a ton of time together and knew how the voting process worked – they had been through it enough times! He also saw James get voted out in the previous Tribal Council after James had similarly assumed that Bobby Jon would never vote against him. Yet Ibrehem apparently didn’t take the few minutes to make sure he knew where he stood with Bobby Jon.

Then, Ibrehem had a chance to form a real alliance when Stephenie brought up the possibility of taking their fates out of Bobby Jon’s hands. Bobby Jon was acting in a manner similar to Christy from Amazon and Dolly from Vanuatu. He wouldn’t say who he was going to vote again, so I thought for sure the other two would realize their danger and turn on him. Instead, Ibrehem also played it up as if he didn’t know what he was doing.

This leads directly to the second rule, about scheming and plotting too much. It seems odd that we can on the one hand say Ibrehem didn’t scheme enough but then turn around and say on the other hand that he did too much, but in a way that’s what he did. If he had simply told Stephenie that he would vote with her, he might have been safe. All he had to do was tell Stephenie that she was right, and he would vote with her against Bobby Jon. Then he could have told Bobby Jon what she was up to. This would have put him in the perfect position to either stick with Bobby Jon and turn on Stephenie or to go with Stephenie and turn on Bobby Jon.

But he didn’t do that. He just said he didn’t know what he would be doing. Either he truly was unsure or he simply didn’t want to tell her what he was planning. Either way, it was the wrong move. He needed to tell her something. By leaving her hanging, she felt she could not trust him and there was no way she was going to attempt a coup against Bobby Jon on her own.

Ibrehem seemed to do fine as far as the third rule, pretending to be nice, went. Even after we saw James lash out at him, we didn’t see Ibrehem respond in kind.

However, the fourth rule brings us back to the question of what Ibrehem was thinking in regards to Bobby Jon. Contestants are told here to not let emotions control them. Was Ibrehem thinking with his strategic brain when he decided that he and Bobby Jon were going to stick together? Or was he simply believing that to be true because they were friends on the island, went fishing together, and had stuck together since the first day? From what we saw, I think it’s the latter – Ibrehem believed he was safe with Bobby Jon not because of strategy but because of friendship. That is also likely why he wouldn’t go with Stephenie against Bobby Jon. He let his friendship get in the way of the proper strategic move.

The fifth rule says to not be too much of a threat. This didn’t seem to be an issue with Ibrehem – although he looked like a threat, he didn’t act like a threat. Indeed, when Jeff Probst asked Bobby Jon why he might consider voting against Stephenie, Bobby Jon said it would be because she is the threat. So let’s move on.

The sixth rule says not to be lazy. According to James, in my interview with him, Ibrehem was lazy around camp. However, we saw nothing else to indicate that to be true, and while it might have been a reason James had targeted him, it wasn’t a reason for Bobby Jon to do so.

Seventh is to be flexible. As we’ve already seen, Ibrehem had the chance to take the decision-maker role away from Bobby Jon. He didn’t. Right there we see just how flexible he was – not at all.

So did Bobby Jon and Stephenie make the right decision in voting Ibrehem off? I would have to say yes. The two of them had a specific alliance, while Ibrehem had nothing concrete with either of them. Furthermore, Stephenie really had no other choice since Ibrehem wouldn’t commit to turn on Bobby Jon.

Throughout the game, even though they have been getting absolutely destroyed in the game, Ulong has had almost no strategic thinking. Ibrehem followed along in that mold. On Survivor, you can never assume anything. Yet it seems that Ibrehem assumed he would be saved by Bobby Jon, and took virtually no steps to make sure it happened. That is why Ibrehem lost.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other Survivor: Palau Episode 7 articles:

David Bloomberg is the Editor of RealityNewsOnline and can be reached at RNO@pobox.com.

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