Survivor: Palau – Why Coby Lost

Coby was sitting in a prime spot. He had been on the winning tribe for the entire run of this Survivor. He was apparently on the outside, but had been told by Gregg that in actuality he was a key member in what would end up being a coup. Even if he was truly on the outside, he was at least more valued than one other member of his alliance and there was a new girl in town. At the very least, Coby should have been able to last two more weeks – possibly more if he played his cards right. So what happened? Why did Coby lose?

Now that alliances and politicking are taking hold on Survivor: Palau, it becomes even more important to figure out where people went right and what they did wrong. So of course, What Palau Survivors Should Have Learned is where we go to find the answers to all our questions.

The first rule is to scheme and plot – and lo and behold we actually have somebody who did it this season! While Ulong was busy voting off tribe member after tribe member, Coby tried to plan ahead a bit. He knew he was in the minority voting group, along with Caryn and Janu, and tried to figure out ways around that. One such way dropped into his lap when Gregg approached him a while back and told him that Jenn and Gregg were looking for swing votes to overthrow the tribal leaders, Ian and Tom.

Coby was of course all too happy to oblige. Indeed, if that strategy had been used, and they had voted out Tom, Katie, and Ian (along with Stephenie, of course, but we’ll get to that in a minute), Coby and his alliance of three would have actually found himself in a majority over Gregg and Jenn. It was perfect!

But somehow, it didn’t come to fruition.

Coby had two other options as well. The most obvious was to target Stephenie, the newest Koror member. He could have played on the fears of the others that she was too strong, instead he promoted her as being worthy to stay because she was so strong. While I supposed it’s admirable on a personal level, it’s not so much on a game level. So that possibility didn’t come to pass either.

A last-ditch possibility was that Coby could have turned on his alliance-mate Janu. Janu had pretty much checked out of the game already, and she fully expected to be sent home. It really wouldn’t have taken much for Coby to help her along, earning himself at least another three days.

In fact, what it would have taken was nothing. If Coby had just kept his mouth shut, that is probably what would have happened. But that is where we get into the second rule. Coby managed to break pretty much every part of this rule: He schemed and plotted too much; he failed to keep it secret; he backstabbed before he needed to.

I’m not exactly sure what came over Coby. He seemed to understand the basics of the game until his final episode. But then, something snapped. Rather lying low and pressing Gregg about the coup plot, Coby jumped in with a full head of steam to spill every bean to Stephenie.

First of all, Coby called – and virtually pulled – Stephenie over to talk to him in a manner that made sure everybody knew what was going on. What kind of stupid move was that?! Scheming should be kept secret. He even thought he was the first person to talk strategy with her, which he should have known was ridiculous. However, the others who talked to her didn’t scream her name across the island.

Then, he made things worse by telling Stephenie everything that was going on. Why? I dunno. It was like he just couldn’t wait to gossip with someone new. The proper way to scheme and plot is to tell the other person only what you want them to know. Sure, they might find out other things, but keep ‘em guessing. By divulging everything that’s going on, you give them far too much information, especially in a situation like this.

For example, why tell Stephenie about Gregg and Jenn unless she was going to be part of the overthrow? He had to know she would run back and tell the others, which would expose the plan, which would make it difficult for Gregg and Jenn to pull it off, which would put himself back in the outsider position! Did he not think it through? Or did he just have a burr in his butt about the tribe “appearing” to be so cozy when they really weren’t? If the latter – duh!, this is Survivor!

By revealing the information about the coup plot, Coby also backstabbed too soon. It’s unclear if Stephenie told the others about that point, but it certainly was a risk. Even if she didn’t mention that, she definitely talked about his claim that Jenn was jealous of her, which put Jenn in a position where there was no way she could trust Coby again.

Basically, Coby completely flunked this rule.