Survivor: Palau – Why Ian Lost

Ian became part of a three-person alliance on Day 1 and held to it – more or less – until the bitter end. And oh was that end, or at least the days leading up to it, bitter! But Ian’s road to the finals took a different turn when, after almost 12 hours in an endurance immunity, he decided to throw it all away in return for Tom’s friendship and respect. What led up to this point? Why did Ian lose?

Despite the fact that Ian went out in a rather surprising way, we will still address these questions in the same way we have every week of Survivor that had led up to this point, by looking back at What Palau Survivors Should Have Learned.

Almost always, the most important rule is to scheme and plot. And indeed this was most important for most of Ian’s game. He formed an alliance on Day 1. And he stuck to that alliance while keeping some of his options open when he saw better chances.

But unfortunately for Ian, he seemed unable to deal with the repercussions of playing the scheming and plotting game. Indeed, when he was caught – first by Katie and then by Tom – he could barely form a coherent reply to explain what he had been doing or thinking.

Part of his problem was that Ian failed somewhat in the second rule. No, it wasn’t that he plotted and schemed too much, it was that he didn’t keep it secret. For one thing, Ian’s own big mouth kept getting him in trouble. First, he admitted to Tom that it would have been a difficult decision for him if he had won immunity. Bad idea. This led Tom to realize that maybe Ian had been doing some plotting outside of their Final Three alliance.

Then, to add to his problems, Ian admitted that he’d told the women he would vote against Tom if Tom hadn’t won immunity – but was unable to further explain himself. Finally, Ian said in Tribal Council that he and Tom had an agreement to “try” to take each other to the Final Three, when Tom didn’t think there was a “try” in there. I think I know what Ian was trying to say, but he was unable to get the words out correctly and just kept reloading and shooting himself in the foot over and over again.

What Ian should have done was to tell Tom that the women were plotting against him and he was playing along so they wouldn’t consider banding together and forcing a tie – or something like that. But Ian didn’t do that. By talking to the women – who he knew would blab because it had been happening so often – Ian set himself up for a fall and then was shocked when Jenn gave him a push.

The third rule says to pretend to be nice. Ian didn’t have to pretend, though – he seems like a genuinely nice guy. So nice, in fact, that he allowed himself to be taken advantage of by Katie and, to a lesser extent, Tom.

When he had the blow-up with Katie, Ian had several opportunities to point out that she was the one who had turned on him. First she did it at the reward challenge, and then it looked like she was going to do it in the game as well by jumping to Gregg and Jenn. But Ian didn’t bring that up. Was he overwhelmed by Katie’s powers of debate? I doubt it. I think he was just too nice of a guy and wanted the argument to go away so they could go back to being friends.

This leads directly to the fourth rule, which warns against letting emotions control you. Ian obviously failed here. He had become so close to both Tom and Katie that the game no longer mattered to him. He first offered to quit when arguing with Katie on the beach. Then he did essentially quit after the longest challenge ever, handing Tom the win.

To quote from the rule:

Friends are great, but this is a game show. Now I already hear some people protesting, ‘But Ethan made friends, and he was a nice guy – and he won!’ True, but he didn’t allow his friendships to interfere with his play. … He did not allow his emotions to control his game play.

What about the fifth rule, which says not to be too much of a threat? Well, this edition of Survivor was a welcome exception to this rule for much of the time. Ian and Tom were the biggest threats in the game, yet they made it to the Final Three. Indeed, being strong and likeable was an asset to both of them.

However, it was unlikely that either would take the other to the Final Two for that very reason. Each of them knew they had a better chance against Katie than against each other. Indeed, I think Tom might have considered rewarding Ian’s decision to bail out of the final immunity challenge, but he knew that taking Ian to the Final Two would be a much riskier proposition than taking Katie (and if he wasn’t thinking that way, he should have been). If some of the other players (like the women), they would have not only acknowledged that facing Tom or Ian in the finals would be deadly, but they would have done something to prevent it.

The sixth rule says not to be lazy – obviously, that was not an issue with Ian. The seventh says to be flexible, and that was something of an issue. Rather, I should say that the discovery by Tom that Ian was being flexible was the issue.

Ian was right to cast out feelers to see how he might avoid losing to Tom at the end. Yes, he had made a Final Three deal with Tom, but we’ve seen deals made and broken many times before. In this case, Ian would have been wise to do so because Tom was his biggest threat.

However, by making it known that he was flexible after over a month of saying he was solid, Ian put himself into the bad position that we’ve already discussed. More to the point, it goes back to Ian being unable to really explain why he was being flexible.

For about 36 days, Ian played a solid game. He played strategically, made the right move when he saw that he might find himself at the low end of his Final Five alliance, and was willing to think about alternatives. But as soon as emotion came into play, Ian folded like a bad poker hand. He had made emotional attachments and allowed them to override his basic game strategy. For several days on end, it seems, he was pummeled by one or the other of his planned Final Three compatriots for decisions he had made or thought about making. Ian was unable to overcome that emotional roller coaster in favor of playing with the proper strategy. That is why Ian lost.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other Survivor: Palau Finale articles:

David Bloomberg is the Editor of RealityNewsOnline and can be reached at RNO@pobox.com.

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