Survivor: Guatemala – Who Will Go in Episode 3?

Thursday is approaching, and it’s time once again to predict the next Survivor to be voted off his or her tribe. We’re two weeks in, and so far I’m 0 for 2 predicting Survivor boots. But I remain optimistic. The early boots are always more difficult to predict, since we don’t have all of the alliances fleshed out yet, and some Survivors have had nary a moment on camera.

That was the case with Morgan. She had some decent camera-time last week when she was booted off the tribe. But the first week of filming gave us nothing but the tiniest glimpse of her. Hopefully, this time around we’ll be saying goodbye to somebody who’s been on camera for more than 30 seconds.

As of right now the tribes seem to be fairly even. Although Nakum has won three of the four challenges over Yaxha thus far, each contest has been close and I don’t think either team is in any great danger of an Ulonging this time around. If I were to make a wild guess, I’d say that the momentum will switch again and Yaxha will win the next two challenges. But let’s go ahead and look at the situation in Yaxha in case they can’t pull out a win.

Stephenie and Gary were both in a degree of danger last week. Each had assumed positions of leadership in the tribe, which made them possible targets. However, by allying with each other, they’ve each been able to bring their followers together and solidify their positions in the tribe.

Gary is still in a somewhat precarious spot because Danni exposed his lie about his career (thanks in part to information she received from Jim before he left). However, because she called him out from afar and didn’t wait until a time when she would be sticking around to press the point, I think he’s been able to get away with his lie and minimize the suspicion (although Brian seems like he might be savvy enough to see through him eventually).

Stephenie is in an even better position. After some uncharacteristic naivete in the last episode, she’ll realize that not everybody loves her and be able to target the dissenters. There does seem to be a core alliance right now of Gary, Stephenie, Brian, Brianna, and Amy. Rafe also has some friends in the bunch, but I don’t know yet which ones they are. In fact, I’m still confused why his name never came up last week after that awful performance in the reward challenge.

The previews for next week seem to be pointing their fingers at Amy this week, since she apparently will roll her ankle. Unlike Jeff from last season, however, she doesn’t seem intent on laying down her torch for her fellow tribemates (and I commend her for that). I also don’t think she’ll be going. Despite her injury, she’s made a friend in Stephenie, and that should be enough to keep her in the game for at least another week. The previews are probably just a red herring.

That leaves two: Jamie and Lydia. Both are in completely different situations. Jamie is strong enough to help out in challenges, but he doesn’t really seem to have any strong connections to the other members of his tribe.

Lydia on the other hand is a friend with pretty much everyone but is still potentially the weakest tribe member. This is a difficult one to call. Normally, I’d say that friendships/alliances win out over challenge strength. However, Stephenie’s tainted view of challenges due to last season’s Ulonging will probably move her to lobby for Jamie’s strength in this particular case. Lydia’s campaigning has only purchased her another week if Yaxha heads back to Tribal Council.

With that, we adjust our view until Nakum comes into focus. The fallout of the first episode’s M*A*S*H unit has created some interesting tribal dynamics. But unlike the members of the 4077, there’s not much to joke about. There’s some definite friction.

Brooke and Cindy continue to hide in the shadows, and I still have pretty much nothing with which to gauge their staying power. However, there seems to be a definite rift between the healthy Judd and Brandon and the sick but pampered Blake and Bobby Jon.

I really don’t think any of the women have to worry about getting kicked off. Although we saw Danni give away vital blackmail information in the last episode, her standing in her own tribe is still solid. And Margaret continues to enjoy the safety that necessity affords. So the real question and determining factor for this tribe will be, “With whom will the women side?”

Margaret is clearly going all Nurse Nightingale over Blake, so I’m pretty sure she’s on his side. And I’d imagine the other three ladies will probably vote in a bloc. They may see things from Judd’s point of view and vote out the sick and pampered Blake. It would give them a five-person alliance that could last through the merge.

But as obvious as that seems, there are some other factors to take into account. First, the women seem to be sticking together. And since Margaret is tied to Blake and Bobby Jon, the others may simply follow suit. Second, Blake and Bobby Jon both seem to be recovering, and their performances in the challenges may convince the ladies to keep them around. Finally, Judd is a sourpuss. Tribal unity may become an issue, and the women may decide that Judd is bringing down morale.

Brandon agrees with Judd, but he hasn’t placed himself in quite the position of contention that Judd has at this point. So I think Judd will be sent home this week if Nakum loses immunity.

And there they are. Judd and Lydia, both of Betsy’s MVPs from last week, are my picks to get their respective torches snuffed if their tribe loses immunity. Stay tuned Thursday to see how it all plays out!

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other Survivor: Guatemala Episode 7 articles:

Wesley is an aspiring writer English teacher from Tulsa, OK who still can’t fathom why Danni would give away such perfectly good blackmail info. He can be reached with questions, comments, and snide remarks at Musnud@Gmail.com.

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