Survivor: Guatemala – Who Will Go in Episode 4?

Never. Happened. Before. The three words that this predictor hates seeing in the promos. Of course every year we see this type of advertising in the promos, and almost every year it’s simply a twist on the tribe swap originated in Survivor: Africa. So this year I’m inclined to expect more of the same. But then the real question for me becomes, “how in Pete Sampras am I supposed to guess the next booted tribe member when I don’t even know what the makeup of the tribes will be?”

It’s clear that I will have to approach this from so many angles that I’m in danger of turning into a dodecahedron. Nonetheless, I will do my best to bring an end to this miserable 0-3 start as your resident predictor. However, we’ll begin by looking at the tribes without the assumption of a tribal mix-up.

Let’s begin with a look at Nakum. All of a sudden, Margaret’s position of safety on the tribe is disappearing. And it’s all because she couldn’t shut her mouth while the men were building the shelter. Oh, Margaret, have you not learned rule number one of tribal shelter-building dynamics? If somebody else is building it wrong, just shut your mouth and let them fail! Then, after it collapses under a torrential rainstorm and you spend one night of wet misery listening to Jerri Manthey whine about how she just can’t handle it anymore, you step up to rebuild it the right way and become the hero of the tribe. Unfortunately, you ignored this very simple rule and put yourself in a position of contention with the men on the tribe.

As for the former sickos, Blake and Bobby Jon, both have recovered from their illnesses. And Blake in particular seems to be taking the lead in the immunity challenges. (Go native Tulsan! Go!) Additionally, they’re mending fences with Judd and Brandon. I feel that both are safe this week if no tribal changes are made.

Other safe Nakums: Brooke, who we still know next to nothing about thanks to lack of camera-time (apart from some average “calling” in the reward challenge). Danni, who totally owned the courtball challenge last week. And Brandon, who’s kind of annoying but doesn’t really let it show around his tribemates.

Danger Zone: Cindy, who has gotten on Judd’s bad side because she had the audacity to point out that the howler monkey was lonely. And Margaret, who may have alienated herself from several of the men during the shelter-building.

But Judd is still my pick to go home. His attitude will put him at odds with the women at least. With all women aligned against Judd, they’ll be able to convert at least one guy (most likely Blake, who wasn’t a part of the shelter-building conflict) and send Judd and his monkey-hatin’ attitude away for good.

Over in Yaxha we’re learning that an alliance is only an alliance if people stick with it. Clearly the pseudo-alliance that supposedly included Morgan and Brianna was only a front for the actual Darwinistic approach to gameplay that Yaxha has adopted. The strong shall survive and the weak shall be sacrificed to the great god Burnettzalcoatl. Of course this doesn’t explain why they’ve kept Lydia and Amy, but I wouldn’t accuse the Yaxha tribe of common sense at this point.

Despite kicking out two members of their “alliance,” Gary and Stephenie still seem to have control of the tribe, spreading their survival of the fittest edict among the tribal masses. They are relatively safe this time around.

The leftovers of the Gary/Stephenie “I-can’t-believe-it’s-not-an” Alliance are Rafe and Amy, with Brian perhaps having gotten himself into it. Of these three, both Rafe and Brian the Unchartable seem to be in no danger of going home. Amy, however, will join Lydia and Jamie as potential targets this next time around.

Amy’s survival depends entirely on her ankle. If she can wrap it tightly, elevate it, and give it some rest, then she should be able to recover and continue in the game. Even then, however, she should find ways to rest it while still being of use to the tribe. I would suggest fishing, which would give her ankle long periods of rest while she still would manage to gather food for her tribe. It appears that her injury is likely only a first-degree sprain, in which case she should heal rather quickly. But if it’s worse than she’s been letting on, she may very well be the next to go.

Jamie continues to channel the spirit of Judd. Seriously, if these two got together, it could very well create a state of grumpiness unparalleled since the days of Walter Matthau and Jack Lemmon. Jamie’s attitude may put him at odds with his tribe. But fortunately for him, they have yet to abandon their habit of kicking out the weak players. So unless he gets to a thinking challenge and completely blows it for Yaxha, he’ll be safe for at least another week.