Survivor: Guatemala – Who Will Go in Episode 5?

I am now 0 for 4. So what happened to drag me into this miserable bog of a predicting quagmire? Well, the producers pulled a Morgan on me again. Brooke is gone, and we've still seen next to nothing about her. That said, I started out miserably last year and ended up 9-6, so there's still hope for me. Plus, there are finally some clear tribal divisions and alliances forming, so I have something to work with now.

Nevertheless, I’ve been told that a monkey could do a better job at predicting than I’m doing right now. That’s why I’ve flown in (fresh from the trees of Guatemala) Steve the Howler Monkey to do my predicting for me this week! Say hello, Steve.

Steve: Waaaaaahhhhhhwoooooo...

So Steve, which tribe do you think will win immunity this week?

Steve: Haaaaauuuunnn...

Uh, okay, then what tribe members are in danger of being kicked off and why?

Steve: Toohhm... Toohhm... Toohhm...

Tom? But there’s no Tom on this season... Wait a second. I see now. You’ve been watching the reruns on Outdoor Life, haven’t you? Have you even watched the current season at all?

Steve: Haaaaauuuunnn...

Well, there you have it people. Definitive proof that as poorly as I’ve done, at least I’m hitting closer to the mark than a howler monkey (he’s not even watching the right channel). So before Judd marches in and complains that this is the annoyingest article he’s ever read, let’s get on with the predictions. Shall we?

Let’s begin with the New Nakum (or should it be Yesterday’s Yaxha?). At any rate, with the tribal mix-up we now have Lydia, Stephenie, Jamie, and Rafe (formerly of Yaxha) on a tribe with Margaret, Judd, and Cindy from the original tribe. The politics in this tribe were clearly laid out for us in the last episode, with Judd taking the role of Aaron Burr and Brooke getting kicked off.

Margaret and Cindy will now be ticked off at Judd for both turning on them and putting them at a disadvantage in the numbers. Additionally, Judd will essentially have shown himself to be untrustworthy, so it’s quite possible that the former Yaxhas with their newfound numbers advantage will turn around and boot off the untrustworthy (and gripey) Judd—

Steve: Waaaaaahhhhhhwoooooo...

That’s right, Steve, just like Brandon on Survivor: Africa. But wait! Is this not Team Stephenie? Is her mantra not, “Vote off the weak. Keep the strong for challenges. Whine about it when it doesn’t go your way.”? In that case I don’t see Judd going this week.

Lydia may be going instead. After all, she’s probably the weakest remaining tribe member. However, despite Team Steph’s Darwinistic ideals, they’ll likely not run the risk of Judd switching back and losing their numbers advantage.

That leaves Cindy and Margaret. Despite the fact that she’s physically fit, Margaret won’t rate as high on the “strength” scale as Cindy. Being on the wrong end of the numbers (4 8 15 16—whoops, wrong show), and the lesser of the remaining challenge strengths, Margaret will head home if Nakum loses immunity this week.

To stay in the game, Margaret must turn the focus of the tribe to two things, Judd’s untrustworthiness and her ability to outthink him in mental challenges. If she can do that, she may just have a chance.

The New Yaxha is laid out pretty clearly as well. Danni, Brandon, Blake, and Bobby Jon have skipped over from Nakum-land to take a clear majority over the remaining Yaxhas – Gary, Brian, and Amy. Although the early tribal alliances might falter in the long run, due to the early switch, at this point the original Yaxha members are in obvious danger.

At first I figured Amy would be the one to go. She’s clearly the weakest of the smaller alliance (maybe even of the whole tribe), and her swelling ankle will likely be revealed to her new tribemates sooner rather than later (there’s only so much limping you can do before people start to ask questions).

But in the absence of Stephenie, I think this tribe may shift its focus. They already have a couple alpha males in Blake and Bobby Jon and an alpha female in Danni. With that kind of core in place, Gary’s usefulness dwindles. They may decide to start eliminating the later challenge threats a little sooner than the Nakum tribe will.

That doesn’t put Brian out of danger. He’s also clearly in good shape and a possible challenge threat down the line. But Danni also has the quarterback info on Gary and may choose to rat him out. By doing so now, she’ll get rid of Gary before he can be an individual challenge threat and look even better in the eyes of her teammates by exposing his landscaping lie.

I expect we’ll see Gary kicked off, having stepped to the front of the threat line. In order to avoid getting the boot, he needs to convince the Nakum majority on his tribe that Amy is a liability. If he sells her out and they get a good look at her ankle, he might just buy himself another three days.

Your snuffed torches this week belong to Margaret of Nakum or Gary of Yaxha. Stay tuned this Thursday to see if—

Steve: Haaaaauuuunnn...

Judd: Will somebody shut that thing up?!

Oops, Judd’s here now. I’d better go. C’mon Steve, let’s leave the poor man alone.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other Survivor: Guatemala Episode 4 articles:

Wesley is a writer and English teacher from Tulsa, OK. He swears he’s got a permit for that howler monkey somewhere. He can be reached with questions, comments, or snide remarks at Musnud@Gmail.com.

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