Survivor: Guatemala – Advice for the Remaining Ten

Several weeks ago the tribes were mixed up much earlier than anybody expected. At the time I thought it was a tactic to try to get the reformed tribes to bond more than they had in past editions. I think it has worked to some extent, with new bonds having formed in each of the new tribes. Now that the tribes have merged, these old and new bonds are going to be tested.

While the numbers are six to four in favor of the new Nakúm tribe, looking back at the original tribes, they go to a five-five tie. All members of the new tribe are going to have to figure out where the strongest bonds are and run the numbers. Five members of the new Nakúm tribe (Rafe, Stephenie, Jamie, Judd, and Lydia) appear to be fairly tight, while three members of the new Yaxhá tribe (Danni, Bobby Jon, and Brandon) also appear to be tight. Gary and Cindy are more problematic members as they don't seem to have a strong bond with their new tribes, but have lost some of their connection to their old tribe as well.

The advantage appears to be with the new Nakúm tribe, as they need to swing only one vote to start taking out the core of the new Yaxhá tribe, and it is in Cindy and Gary's best interest to sell their votes to that faction as soon as possible. It can buy them a few weeks of safety, and playing for time is generally a good idea when Survivors don't have the protection of an alliance. Things inevitably change in the game, and the larger a controlling alliance, the sooner it eventually has to crack. Stray players then become very useful as their votes can change the outcome of tribal council.

Danni's birthday and the pool party are oddities on Survivor. I believe the rules prohibit tribes from entering another tribe's “turf” unless sanctioned by game events (for example, the famous raid of the Rotu camp by the Marammu tribe during Survivor: Marquesas, or the looting of a single item during Survivor: Pearl Islands). While it was a nice break for both tribes, Jamie was right – the game is always on. Perhaps the producers let it slide because they were about to merge, but I would not have been surprised to see Jeff Probst show up on a boat and break up the party – and take some of their rewards away as a penalty for violating the rules. [Editor’s Note: It may be that the docks were not considered part of tribal “turf,” which would explain why neither tribe went past the other’s dock.]

The reward challenge was different, with tribe members wrapping and unwrapping themselves. One of the keys was to wrap up in such a way that each Survivor could keep their balance and work in a rhythm when turning. The immunity challenge was another buried puzzle piece one, requiring both retrieval of the pieces and solving the puzzle. The key to that was having some big strong guys available to retrieve the pieces, and a couple of good puzzle solvers in reserve to put the whole thing together.

Tribal Council came with something unexpected – the announcement of the merge and the instructions for them to go to the Nakúm camp. It will mean a nighttime visit and scramble for sleeping arrangements, which may get things off to a bumpy start, but it also provides a unique opportunity for the Yaxhá tribe to figure out a post-merge strategy. They have the time it takes to go from Tribal Council to the camp to figure out which of the Nakúm tribe members they can flip, or what cracks to try to exploit. It's a small advantage, but one that should be used.

With the tribes now merged (even if one doesn't know it yet), the Survivors have to adapt to the individual game and be on the lookout more than ever at the hidden agenda behind their upcoming challenges. They also need a plan to move through the game and advance to the finals. It's advice for the remaining ten.

Cindy: You did a good job making the merge, and I've seen some signs that you are attempting to integrate with the new Nakúm tribe, particularly your comment about you not wanting to hang out with people you want to get rid of. I think you've run the numbers and see the outcome. Sell your vote to the Nakúm tribe and get ready to start seeing the factions within it slowly split. Later you're going to want to exploit the cracks, but for now you want to protect yourself by making yourself one of them.

Judd: I think your strategy is pretty clear at this point. With Stephenie and Jamie as your main allies, and a lot of support from the rest of the Nakúm tribe, you need to make a big push to get rid of the incoming alpha-males. Bobby Jon is an excellent target. He's a strong competitor and a leader, but more than anything else he has a long history with Stephenie. Why risk him on the jury if it is you and her in the end?

Stephenie: Like Judd, your immediate goal is to ensure that the new Nakúm stay six strong and thus control the vote. Unlike Judd, you should want to keep Bobby Jon around, at least for another vote, in order to put him on the jury. You were allies with Gary earlier and might want to keep him around to prevent an old-Nakúm coup, so I suggest you push to get rid of Brandon. He fits most of the criteria for a first post-merge boot: challenge threat, strong, and nice.