Survivor: Guatemala – Who Will Go in Episode 11?

First and clearly most important is my daughter’s pick. Now since she’s done this a number of times now, I can tell you that she’s developed a pattern. She will crawl over to the area with the scattered, tiny headshots and pick up one in her right hand. Then she’ll wave it around in the air for a bit before reaching out with her left hand to grab another headshot and shove that one in her mouth.

So, you can imagine my surprise this week when she decided to pick them all up! She would scoop up about five in her hand, and then she would reach out for the remaining two with the same hand, inevitably dropping at least two more pictures in the process. This procedure went on for about five minutes. Eventually she managed to grab six of the seven pictures in her right hand at the same time. And just as I thought she was going to shove all six in her mouth at once, whoosh! Her left hand shot out, grabbed Gary, and thrust him into her mouth. So once again, my child has picked Gary as this week’s boot. Do I agree? Let’s analyze the situation and find out.

It seems to me that there are three possible scenarios that can play out this week:

1. The outsiders in the “Tribe of Five” figure out the order of elimination and turn on the current Head of Manipulation, Stephenie, to ensure their future in the game.
2. Judd goes ballistic upon return from the Tribal Council where he wasn’t clued in about the vote and quickly becomes paranoid and Jamie-esque. His remaining team members decide a “Tribe of Four” can still outvote Danni and Gary, so they vote Judd off as well.
3. Despite an angry Judd and a conniving Stephenie, the “Tribe of Five” continue on their original course and vote out Gary or (if he gets immunity) Danni.

Let us see how each player would be affected by each scenario.

The traditional safety of the Tribe of Five has not left Rafe, and he remains one of the best bets for the finals left in the game. Even if scenario number one comes to pass, I get the feeling that he would be a part of the turn against Stephenie. Taking Lydia over to Danni and Gary, he could easily target Stephenie as the most immediate threat. Scenarios two and three both involve him staying solidly in a set alliance, so I don’t see him going anywhere this week. His only worry is something he’s already identified. He’s becoming a challenge threat. But with the imposing physical presences of Gary and Judd still around, the others aren’t going to notice yet. He may play it cool and back off an immunity win this week, but it won’t matter one way or another.

Lydia is such a non-threat at this stage in the game, the team members might as well just take a picture of her to Tribal Council, give Rafe two votes (one for him, one for her), and leave her back at the camp to tidy up while they’re gone. That’s not to say that this little Mighty Mouse doesn’t have a chance to win in the end, but as of this week, Scenarios one, two, and three should have relatively little effect on her.

Cindy’s been disappearing the past couple of weeks, and that Cheshire cat grin of hers has all but disappeared as well (except when they brought her coffee). But this vote could be very important for her and I expect her to resurface long enough to either make a move or to recognize her oncoming doom. Scenario one is probably her best bet, and it would put her in a new position of power if she can ensure that she’s one of the two to ally with Gary and Danni. If it’s Rafe and Lydia who turn, however, that puts her at the five or six slot (where she currently resides). Scenario two takes her to the final four – a relatively safe move compared to the first one, but still solid gameplay for her. Which leads us to Scenario three. With Jamie gone, she’s moved up to fifth place, but that’s still not the best place for her. Cindy is safe this week, but unless she makes a move, she’ll be in danger soon.

Stephenie has traveled far from her comfortable nest inside the Haven of Invulnerability. She’s clearly one of the leaders and has not backed off from that position enough to remove the danger signs from other players’ eyes. Scenario one sees her gone. At this stage of the game, she should clearly focus on scenario two or three to stay in the game. Three seems like her best bet to remain one of the strongest for the longest. She needs to be careful how she plays her hand this week, because her pet Judd is clearly going to be foaming at the mouth on the way back from Tribal Council. If she gives him an I’m-still-with-you-to-the-end treat and pats him on the head, she should be okay, but her real challenge lies with keeping Rafe and Cindy happy.

Danni has nothing to worry about with Scenarios one and two. Indeed, one should get her to final four, and two should get her to final five where she can try to flip the two endangered members the Tribe of Four. Her biggest concern should be with scenario three. Gary is still a greater threat than she is, but if he wins immunity, she’s still next in line.

Judd... what to say about Judd? Judd needs to reign in his temper and play for Scenario three. If Scenario one comes about, he might not be in immediate danger, but he’ll be in danger the following week (or this week if Steph wins immunity). I’m afraid, however, that Scenario two is highly likely for Judd. Upon returning from Tribal Council, his body will turn green, his purple pants will rip, and he’ll storm about the campsite screaming, “Judd angry! Judd SMASH!” This would probably be enough to ensure Scenario two. However, if he can tame his inner Lou Ferrigno, he might just make it another week.

Gary’s got a couple of Hail Mary plays that he can run in Scenarios one and two. Both of them will ensure him another three days in the ruins, and one can even pull him into the final four. But the allure of tribal unity between the Tribe of Five might be too strong. With Jamie out of the way, the mood at camp will probably settle down and become more pleasant. Gary cannot afford that. He’s too big of a challenge threat, and only an immunity idol and a paranoid delusional have managed to buy him another week so far. The Incredible Judd might cause some havoc. But if the Tribe of Five could look past The Margaret Explosions, The Hidden Immunity Lie and the Shelter Vomit, they can handle a rampaging Jade Judd for a couple of days.

I think that Scenario Three will play out, and once again I agree with my daughter that Gary is the next Survivor to go, with Danni getting the boot if Gary pulls out an immunity win. Gary, you can only throw so many Hail Marys before the other team intercepts the ball.

Will the Incredible Judd rampage his way out of the tribe, or will the ex-footballer make his way back to the locker room? Watch with me this Thanksgiving Thursday to see who will go home!

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other Survivor: Guatemala Episode 10 articles:

Wesley is a writer, English teacher and comic book collector from Tulsa, OK. He can be reached with questions about Iron Man, comments about Green Lantern, or snide remarks about the literary value of comic books at Musnud@Gmail.com.

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