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Survivor: Exile Island: Who Will Go in Episode 3?by Betsy Wasser -- 02/16/2006
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Your regularly scheduled Survivor prognosticator, Wesley Rice, is sick this week, so I’ll be filling in for him. Just like Wesley, I’ll be making my predictions for who will go home this week based on what we’ve seen of tribal dynamics, with no spoilers. I’ve made predictions in seasons past, with wildly mixed results. I have to admit, this week, I feel pretty confident that I know who will be going for either tribe, so feel free to laugh at me if I’m wrong!
Let’s start with La Mina. Terry and Dan must be breathing a sigh of relief that the two of them were able to stay on the same tribe. Their friendship gives each of them one solid ally in the game. And the two of them acted fast, trying to secure an alliance with the other two men on the tribe, Austin and Nick. Unfortunately for Terry and Dan, Austin and Nick are popular boys. Sally and Misty also want to align with them. Ultimately, I think Austin and Nick will choose Sally and Misty. The two flyboys are no slouch when it comes to challenges, but Austin and Nick may perceive the younger players as being stronger. I also think they’ll find Sally and Misty easier to relate to than the two older men.
For the foreseeable future, Sally, Misty, Austin, and Nick will be calling the shots at La Mina. Does that spell doom for Terry and Dan? Not yet it doesn’t. That’s because there’s one tribe member who no one seems interested in aligning with – Ruth Marie. She’s the odd woman out, the only member of the original tribe of older women in La Mina. If this tribe loses immunity, we’ll say goodbye to Ruth Marie.
In addition to predicting who will be voted out, Wesley also likes to predict where the immunity idol is hidden on Exile Island. Bruce had a lot of time to look for it in his three days on Exile Island. Man, if Shane thought life at camp was monotonous, he should try spending three days alone like Bruce did. We learned a few things about where the idol is hidden. Jeff’s original speech to Misty was helpfully written out, and even more helpfully, the word “why” was in quotes. That has to be significant. Bruce’s new clue, besides a swatch of the island where the idol is not hidden is that it’s above the tide line. I think the idol is hidden in the y-shaped branches of a tree, way up high, well above the tide.
With that prediction out of the way, let’s look at who will go on Casaya. Bruce is certainly at a disadvantage here. Everyone else had a chance to bond and form alliances while he was off by himself on Exile Island. His head could well be on the chopping block.
Then there’s Shane. He has got to be getting on everyone’s nerves with his constant changes of mood and pervasive negativity. Heck, he might decide again this week to quit. Or he might make Aras keep his promise to vote him out if he’s not feeling better. Maybe Daneille and Courtney will decide that they don’t appreciate the way that Aras and Shane are conducting themselves, revealing their alliance and telling Melinda and Cirie that their heads are on the chopping block. They might turn on their alliance and get ride of Aras, or even more likely, Shane.
Here’s what I think will happen if Casaya has to go to tribal council. Cirie will desperately want to stay in the game. She knows she’s likely to go, since Shane told her last week that she’s next after Melinda. Cirie will go to Bobby and point out that he’s not in that alliance of four and had best stick with her. They’ll pick up Bruce, who will be more than happy to have an alliance with somebody, anybody. Three votes isn’t enough, so they’ll start poking around for weaknesses in the alliance of four, suggesting that they get rid of Shane. Courtney or Danielle will toy with the idea of voting out Shane. But ultimately, it’s too early to backstab like that. Cirie will be voted out, just the way Shane and Aras told her she would be last week.
Finally, Wesley usually has his daughter Lucy make predictions as well. My son Jack, at 13 months, is close to the same age as Lucy and has graciously agreed to step in. I asked Jack who he thinks will be voted out on Survivor. Jack laughed at me and tried to give me a Cheerio. Does this mean that the reward this week will be Cheerios? Jack’s clues are harder to decipher than Jeff Probt’s. I asked him again who will be voted out. Jack replied, “Dadadadada!”
Wow. That would be quite a twist. To the best of my knowledge, my husband is not, in fact, a contestant on Survivor. Then again, he was away for a week last spring, supposedly fishing with my dad. That could have been his cover story. So, Jack’s prediction is that his dad will join the contestants on Survivor, only to be immediately voted out.
So there you have it! If La Mina goes to tribal council, we will say goodbye to Ruth Marie. If it’s Casaya, Cirie will go. Or, if you listen to Jack, it will be his dad Steve, surprising, apparently, everyone but Jack. We’ll soon find out!
Betsy Wasser is the Associate Editor of Reality News Online. She can be reached with comments and MVP nominations at Betsywasser@Gmail.com.
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