Survivor: Exile Island: Who Will Go in Episode 4?

First of all, a big thank you to Betsy Wasser for covering for me last week. Although she did not correctly predict the booted tribe member, I thought her logic and reasoning were sound and could easily have been accurate, given the whim of one Survivor or another.

That said, my prediction would have been off as well. My choice to be booted last week was Sally. I was convinced that the younger males would stick with the first two (the older men) who approached them about an alliance. And Ruth-Marie is handy to keep around as a swing vote for later on. However, I'm still surprised that this nearly starving tribe didn't opt to boot the girl who lost their Hawaiian sling over the one who was a possible threat down the road.

At any rate, it's now time to discuss my daughter's predictions. I had a significant amount of email concerning her predictions, and the majority of it was in favor. So I will bring her back (if you happen to be one of the couple emailers who didn't care for her predictions, then feel free to skip ahead after the next several paragraphs). However, I'm changing the format a bit. This season I have written the Survivors' names on strips of paper. I then taped those strips of paper around her blankie. The first one that she pulls off and hands to me I will consider as her pick to go.

So here we go. I've given her the blankie, and... she throws it down and tries to grab a lamp cord. No, Lucy! Dangerous for Lucy! Let's try this again. Here's the blankie and— No! Not the lamp, Lucy! Okay, maybe if I pick her up and put her on the other side of the couch. Well, she's not messing with the lamp, but she just throws the blankie at the television. That's right, Lucy, that's where the Survivors play... That's it! Play. She loves taking it off my head, so I cover up my head aaaaand— yes! She got it. She actually has a hold of a name now. She's tugging on Shane's name. And.... and... it's not coming off. Man, that's some strong Dollar Store tape!

Okay, new strategy. I've removed the tape from all of the names and placed them inside the blanket. Now I will shake them out of it and let her simply choose one from the floor. And her choice for Casaya is Courtney. Okay, not bad. Now let's try La Mina. For La Mina she chooses Sally. Ahhh! Well done, Mini-me. You may now return to your previously scheduled play activities (i.e., torturing the cat). I suppose when all is said and done, the simplest approach to baby predictions is the best.

As for my predictions this week, let me first take a look at Casaya. They should be thankful they have Bobby with them. Otherwise, they might not win any challenges. In fact, I still think this dysfunctional tribe has a chance to out-Ulong the Ulong tribe. And as that happens, they may not need to worry about alliances, since they'll be on the diminished end come merge time. As it stands, however, the inmates have definitely taken control of the asylum.

Cirie was in a dangerous position before, but her situation grows stronger every day. And if Danielle and/or Courtney wise up, then they should realize that an alliance with Cirie, Bobby, and Bruce will provide much more stability long-term than one with Shane and Aras. Cirie might still be in danger, but she only has to convince one of those two girls that voting out Shane or Aras pre-jury is the right thing to do for survival.

Meanwhile, Shane Powers is aptly named, because he seems to be doing everything in his power to destroy his own alliance and get voted off next. He doesn't need a thinking seat. He needs a time-out seat, so he can consider his behavior and apologize. From now on whenever somebody says something immature or somehow acts in a completely juvenile manner, I will make a note that they are exercising their special Shane powers. And it's because of this that I predict Shane will go home if (or should I say when) Casaya loses immunity.

On the winners' – uh, I mean La Mina's – side of the island, Sally should be thanking the heavens that she's still on the island instead of Misty. Granted, with her alliance partner gone she now takes on the role of outsider, but this may afford her the chance to proclaim her importance as a swing vote. Unfortunately for her, however, I agree with my daughter on this prediction. Sally is now the weakest link on her current tribe. And if they lose again, she's likely to go the way of her Hawaiian sling and never be seen again this season.

Not much new to report on the immunity idol whereabouts. But let's take a moment to review what we do know. It's not in the middle swath of the island. Probst's words from the first clue are now written out, verifying my initial guess that the “Why” was stressed for a reason. It's above the water line, though I would have assumed that anyway. Also, we now know that Misty didn't find it, and Bruce didn't find it on his first time out (based on his comments during the storm that he had no time to go look for the idol). There may have been a time between when the storm let up and Bruce went back for the immunity challenge, when he could have spent some time searching. But more likely than not the idol is still out there, and my guess I can now narrow to a Y-shaped tree (as Betsy mentioned) or a Y-shaped outcropping of rock somewhere.

In recap, a likely Casaya loss sees the booting of Shane, while a very unlikely La Mina loss would deprive us of Sally for the next episode. Don't agree with me? Shoot me an email and tell me what you think. Then tune in with me this Thursday to witness my amazing powers of prediction (not to be confused with my Shane powers, which I save only for special occasions).

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other Survivor: Exile Island Episode 3 articles:

Wesley is a writer and English teacher from Tulsa, OK. He's a firm believer that with great Shane Powers come great Shane Responsibilities. He can be reached with questions, comments, or snide remarks at Musnud@Gmail.com.