Survivor: Exile Island – Who Will Go in Episode 6?

Here we go again! Another wacky week of prognosticating fun coming your way! It’s been rough going so far, due in large part to the wild voting antics of Team Wacko, also known as Casaya. Any tribe that can cast four votes without a single vote heading Shane’s way has serious dysfunctional issues to work through. But I’ll try my hand at their backwards logic once again to see if I can figure this one out.

Before I begin this week’s predictions, a couple statements in the CBS previews have jumped out at me. First of all, we hear that “a big twist could mean salvation for one” Survivor. Secondly, we’re told that “having an alliance doesn’t always guarantee safety, as a twist in the game leaves one tribe with a big decision to make and places one Survivor’s fate in the hands of another.”

I see two possible options. The first is that the tribe that wins immunity will sit in on the other’s Tribal Council and give an immunity to whomever they agree or vote upon. This has been done before, sometimes to great effect (e.g. Ibrehem receiving immunity on Survivor: Palau, resulting in Angie being voted off with just a couple of votes). But it has also occurred with virtually no fanfare whatsoever (e.g. John K. giving Ami immunity in Vanuatu and Rafe giving Gary immunity in Guatemala).

The second (and more interesting) option is a possibility that I raised a year ago during Palau. I suggested at the time that if the tribe that won immunity were given the option to vote out somebody from the opposing tribe, it could quite literally turn this game on its head (in a good way). Imagine if you’re the leader of your tribe. You’re well-liked by your tribe, and you do excellently in challenges. Then all of a sudden, along comes a challenge that you lose by a scant two seconds. Nevertheless, you’re headed to Tribal Council. But when you arrive, you don’t get to vote. The other tribe votes, and instead of the alliance-less misfit on your tribe going home, it ends up being you. Wouldn’t that bring a whole slew (yes, that’s right, slew) of strategies into play for the pre-merge game of Survivor?

Last year, the ones who I predicted would be in danger given this turn of events were Tom and Ian. Should it actually happen this season, Aras would likely be kicked out of Casaya (since they already did La Mina the favor of voting out Bobby), and Nick would be kicked out of La Mina (though it would be Terry were it not for his immunity idol). Alas, I don’t think this scenario will play out this season either, if for no other reason than the fact that we likely would have seen NEVER. HAPPENED. BEFORE. in vibrant, Survivor-colored letters with matching voice-over during the promo for this week’s show.

Still, it’s nice to think of what this show could be if Burnett just put a little more thought into the twists that he introduces each year. Unfortunately, it’s becoming all too predictable how to play the game (even though we have a whole tribe this season that doesn’t realize it). A twist like the aforementioned would actually force all the Survivors to think on their feet each day rather than hooking into an alliance and coasting to the final four. Come on! Change it up, Burnett! All right, minor lamentation over. Now we return to your standard prediction article...

So, as mentioned earlier, I am assuming that the immunity winners will give an additional immunity to one member of the opposing tribe. If it happens to be Casaya, there likely won’t be any shake-up, since La Mina will hand immunity to the person they think is on the outside or the least threatening, Cirie. After last week I’m fairly certain that it won’t be her. And although Shane didn’t get a single vote last week either, I’m still convinced that he’ll use his Shane powers to annoy the young women (now the ruling faction on Casaya) just enough this week to pull them out of their alliance and vote against him. La Mina won’t give him immunity because for the most part all they usually see of him is a guy giving it his all in the challenges. They only see his Bruce Banner side and aren’t privy to the inner rumblings of the Hulk that come from deep within Casaya.

La Mina, on the other hand, is in an interesting position. Should they lose and be sent to Tribal Council, there’s an obvious target on their side, Sally. But Survivor Sal need not fret. Casaya, even in their natural drug-induced state, should be able to determine her vulnerability and give her immunity. That leaves the formerly solid alliance of four men. I predict one possible strategy emerging from that situation: the men will vote out the most dangerous person after the merge.

However, the most dangerous person has the secret immunity idol, so the person going home will actually be the next most dangerous person from his perspective (i.e. for whomever Terry decides to vote). And I see that as Nick. He’s athletic and sociable but hasn’t built as tight a bond with Terry as Dan and Austin have.

Now let’s move on to my daughter’s weekly predictions. I’ve dropped La Mina’s names on the floor, and this week she gets right to work and races toward the closest name. She chooses… Terry. Uh, Lucy, you do realize that Terry has the hidden immunity, so he can’t be voted off, right?

Lucy: *giggle* Thpt!

Oh, well, okay. How about Casaya? After I shake their names out of her blankie and onto the floor, she grabs the closest one, which is… Courtney. All right, well, that pick redeems you a bit anyway. I must add, though, that I think I’m messing with my daughter’s mind. After I had gathered the strips of paper up off the floor, she grabbed her blankie, shaking it violently and looking around for the paper. It’s daddy magic, Lucy. The same thing I use to find grapes in your ear.

The immunity idol this week is still hopefully in Terry’s pack. Will he have to use it? It will definitely be fun to watch when he does. However, an alert reader brought up a good question. Can a tribemate steal his immunity idol and use it for himself? Or does Terry have exclusive original finder’s rights? Something to consider to be sure. People always mention “lying, cheating, and stealing” to get ahead, but until now I haven’t noticed an opportunity for the stealing part to make any difference.

My boot picks this week are Shane from Casaya and Nick from La Mina. My daughter chooses Terry and Courtney. Tune in with me this Thursday as we witness Mark Burnett’s latest “twist.”

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other Survivor: Exile Island Episode 5 articles:

Wesley is a writer and English teacher from Tulsa, OK. He’s ready for a new, innovative twist to the game, or at the very least a move next season to Survivor: Siberia. He can be reached with questions, comments, or snide remarks at musnud@gmail.com .

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