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Survivor: Exile Island – Advice for the Remaining Nineby Jeffrey Clinard -- 04/05/2006
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Despite all their internal problems, Casaya has banded together in an attempt to Pagong the former La Mina tribe. It held for the first vote, though it remains to be seen if they will hold together. The women have had problems with Shane, and Bruce has expressed a dislike for Courtney. However, members of an alliance do not have to like each other in order to work together.
On the other hand, an alliance can only exist as long as each member thinks it will get them to the end. The females in the alliance seem to be in the best position within the group as they seem solid. Bruce is something of an outsider and might flip if the numbers look better, while Shane just got a wake up call when he saw four pieces of paper with his name on them at Tribal Council. While usually it shouldn't be a concern, the hidden immunity idol could have been used to eliminate him from the game.
As the previews show Terry revealing he has the hidden immunity idol, and possibly attempting to trade it for a deal. Knowing that Terry has it provides problems for some members of the Casaya alliance, and opportunities for others. The Casaya women could use it as an opportunity to take the idol out of play and eliminate Shane at the same time, if they are certain that the former La Mina tribe will be voting for him. However, if Shane is faced with that situation, he will have to either be a sacrifice or jump ship against his former allies. Right now, Shane is effectively trapped in a snare of his own making. Being the leader isn't a good idea when you're playing Survivor.
Given the position Terry is in, it's not a bad idea to try to use the immunity idol as a bribe to get somebody to change sides. If he can lure somebody in with the promise of the idol, and bring Bruce in as the key vote to change the numbers, La Mina can take control of the game. Indeed, it would mean Terry is sincere in the offers he made to various Casaya members as the immunity idol is a guarantee of protection. However, Terry would end up being more exposed to the vote once the other Casaya members are eliminated. One thing is for certain though; no matter what is offered or accepted, Terry is about to shake up the game.
At this point, everybody left will be on the jury or a finalist pleading their case to them. What should each player be doing to make it to the end? It's advice for the remaining nine.
Terry: I think you realize you're in a losing position, even with the immunity idol, and have decided to stir things up. As you are a high priority target, it's in your best interest to try to crack the Casaya alliance, and trading the immunity idol for political protection isn't a bad plan. Even if nobody takes the deal, you will still scare people (particularly Shane) and make the others nervous about voting you out. Fear, backed up by the immunity idol, is your best weapon right now.
Austin: I can understand why you dropped out of the challenge, feigning weakness, and it worked. However, you blew your position at Tribal Council. I'm not sure why; unless you figured that Terry was likely the next target, and the Casaya tribe still thought you were stronger than Sally. Still, letting everybody know you played them wasn't a good move. Right now you need to win immunity, or hope that Terry shakes up the numbers with his immunity idol. By revealing the immunity idol, Terry will probably take the focus off of himself and to you for the next vote.
Sally: I suspect you've stuck with La Mina as the Casaya alliance is pretty tight – at least for now. Fortunately, you have the advantage in that you are probably better able to play for time. If the events Terry is about to unleash doesn't change the situation, you'll need to approach the Casaya women and offer your vote as the key one when there are seven. Also, right now your worst case scenario is Austin winning individual immunity as the target will probably shift to you if the Casaya alliance holds. If the challenge allows it, you might be better off playing to deprive it to him than winning it for yourself. Long term, you should think about working with the other women to control the tribe. They need a vote, and you need some protection.
Shane: You've dug yourself a huge hole, and I'm not sure how you are going to climb out of it. Making yourself the leader and being obnoxious has made you unpopular with both your Casaya allies and the La Mina people. The four votes you received at Tribal Council should have been a wake up call. You need to try to direct the vote away from Terry because you could end up being eliminated if he pulls out the immunity idol. If your alliance doesn't want to do that, you need a new alliance.
Danielle: You remain in a good position, though that may change if the Casaya alliance self-destructs. Keep letting Shane take all the heat for now – he'll be the target sent home if Terry ends up using the immunity idol. If things crack apart, you'll need to make sure you aren't seen as the leader of the Casaya women. The safest course of action is to get rid of Austin next, and prepare to eliminate Terry when you control enough votes to have it bounce to an unimportant person to your game plan.
Aras: I hope you are thinking long term, since you'll need a plan to advance in the game once the La Mina people are eliminated. Shane would be a good person to keep around (due to his probable inability to win over a jury), but you'll need at least two other votes to keep control of the game out of the hands of the three Casaya women. You may be able to make a deal with them to take out Bruce and Shane; your only other option is probably to deal with Shane, Bruce, and the last La Mina standing. You may be able to lay the initial groundwork.
Courtney: Like the other Casaya women, you have one of the best positions in the game right now. You'll need to push for the elimination of Austin next (given the knowledge that Terry has the immunity idol, and consider which person will give your group control of the game when there are seven. I'd suggest sounding out Sally for a deal.
Cirie: You were right in your assessment that you didn't need a new shuffle – you have a better position currently than under Terry's proposed scheme. You need to stick with your alliance for now, and keep working with the women to plan out when to take full control of the alliance. Things will eventually change in the game, but your path seems fairly clear as long as nothing major shakes up the game.
Bruce: I can understand why you decided not to flip to the La Mina tribe – without the numbers you could have gone home instead. However, if the opportunity comes to flip with the numbers, take it. You're not close to anybody on Casaya, but if it comes to it you may be able to sell your vote when the Casaya alliance inevitably cracks.
Nick: What went wrong? Well, you merged shorthanded, and Terry won immunity. You were the second most dangerous person from the former La Mina tribe, and it ended up costing you the game.
If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other Survivor: Exile Island Episode 7 articles:
Jeffrey Clinard has been writing about Survivor since the second series, and has published over 100 articles about the show and given advice to nearly 150 different Survivors on Reality News Online. He can be reached at email@example.com.
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