Survivor: Exile Island – Who Will Go in Episode 9?

Well, we're in the midst of the latest Pagonging, so this will be a fairly obvious pick this week. Nevertheless, the producers did a good job making it appear like somebody besides Austin might go last week. Of course, once we saw people writing down Aras's name, it was all over for Austin. The editors have a rather nasty, albeit predictable habit of showing the name of the person >not being booted in an attempt to throw the viewers off (of course, now that I say this, it will probably change next week).

At any rate, to bring some sense of excitement to a rather predictable week, I've decided to compare the Survivors this week to their counterparts on the Lost island. For those that do not follow this excellent show, feel free to skip ahead to my final analysis at the bottom of the article. Or keep reading to get an idea about what you've been missing. Let's see how each player measures up.

Aras – The resident Jack of the tribe. He's in charge, and he knows it. This puts him in a dangerous position from those with other type A personalities. But he's self-aware enough that he can probably handle it.

Bruce – Bruce is a tough one to place. From a purely stereotypical viewpoint one would have to say Jin. But I don't think the personalities match at all. Ultimately, I'd consider Bruce to be more like Bernard or Hurley. He's likeable, but he's also easy to push around. Like both of his counterparts, he still seems a bit lost on the island and among his tribe.

Cirie – She is so like Rose. Her positive outlook is simply addictive. Of course, it doesn't hurt that she's finding her position in the game growing more and more solid. But I have a feeling that even if she wasn't in such a good spot, her attitude wouldn't be any less endearing.

Courtney – Danielle Rousseau, the crazy French chick... 'Nuff said.

Danielle – I was tempted to put Danielle Rousseau here simply because I like it when names match up like that. But for all her faults, Danielle really isn't crazy. She is rough around the edges and speaks her mind though, which makes Ana-Lucia a perfect fit.

Sally – The more we learn about Libby, the more she seems to match Sally's profile. She's intelligent and sociable. But ultimately, there's a sense of an impending breakdown. Likewise, Sally's an intelligent and sociable player. But her alliance is breaking down around her. And eventually it will just be her, scrambling to make things right.

Shane – Shane fits the Michael profile. What? You thought I was going to say Danielle Rousseau again didn't you? No, Michael actually fits really well. He's pretty self-absorbed, except when it comes to his son. When that becomes an issue, he'd do pretty much anything for him. You see? You can't even tell which of them I'm referring to now, can you? They're that similar. Ultimately, Shane is rather nutso, but look at Michael's actions lately... actually, where has Michael even been lately?

Terry – Terry is very Locke-like. Somewhat pompous, and from what we've seen from the previews, perhaps even more so. He's also very confident in his own abilities. Like Locke, Terry is the one that the other Survivors (except maybe Aras) expect to dominate in the challenges. Locke also seems to have a deeper understanding of his role on the island. And given that Terry has hidden immunity, he has perhaps a stronger perspective of his situation as well.

So which of these lost Survivors will it be? If the Pagonging continues, the obvious choices are Terry and Sally. However, now that Danielle is aware of Terry's idol and has made her decision to stay with Casaya, she will likely tell her tribemates, allowing them to switch their vote to Sally.

Yes, Casaya tribe could easily target both Terry and Sally (half and half) in order to eliminate Terry's immunity idol and still get rid of Sally, but I don't give them credit for that much intelligence. The scenario then shifts to a 6 to 2 vote against Sally, which I feel is far more likely. Terry may yet stay in the race for a while now, given that his secret is out but nobody wants to risk voting for him.

If Sally manages to gain immunity somehow, my guess is that the Casayans will avoid the Terry vote and shift their focus inward, towards their Shane infection. The final four is definitely not Aras, Cirie, Shane, and Courtney, as the manic one seems to believe. In fact, of those four, I only see Cirie and Aras making it to final four.

This week for my daughter's predictions I returned to the blankie system, and my daughter stared at me for what seemed like an eternity just grinning. “Pick one,” I said, “go on!” Eventually after keeping me in suspense for far too long, she picked up the strip of paper with Danielle's name and brought it over to me. This girl really has no eye for strategy.

Picks this week: Sally will be Pagonged. If she somehow manages individual immunity, the Nuthouse Alliance will avoid Immunity Terry and rid themselves of one of their nuts in Shane. And my daughter chooses Danielle. Watch with me Thursday as the Pagonging plays out!

Wesley is a writer and English teacher from Tulsa, OK. He wishes there were somebody on the island cool enough to be compared to Mr. Eko. He can be reached with questions, comments, or snide remarks at Musnud@Gmail.com.

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